BuffaloWeather Posted December 8, 2020 Author Share Posted December 8, 2020 6 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: I hunk like you stated yesterday we score on one of these chances The models are all over the place. One event at a time, at least it's active. Wish we had some colder air to work with. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: The models are all over the place. One event at a time, at least it's active. Wish we had some colder air to work with. I do like this next event is trending south. This might be a gradient type setup yet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 Taken verbatim, that 12Z GFS was a snowy one for sure in CNY but like many have said, we need a jog of about 100 miles or so by the Jet and we'd be golden!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 we got time for a swfe to emerge out of this. Could work out - we got chances at least. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 WWA issued for tomorrow.. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches on the Tug Hill Plateau and higher terrain, with less than 3 inches of accumulation across lower elevations. * WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region. * WHEN...From 1 AM Wednesday to 1 AM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute on Wednesday. A strong shortwave will track across Ontario crossing the Ottawa Valley into northern New York tonight. Expect snow to develop after midnight as ascent increases across the region. Boundary layer winds back to west-southwest ahead of this feature with temperatures aloft just cold enough for lake enhancement (around -6C at 850 mb) northeast of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Profiles continuing to suggest mainly snow to start out in most areas, except perhaps right along the immediate lakeshores. Could see lower elevations pick up an inch, maybe two, of snow that could disrupt the early morning commute Wednesday. It looks like the main focus for this event will be across the higher terrain/Tug Hill Plateau east of Lake Ontario. Better moisture will be found across this area with a persistent westerly lake enhanced/upslope flow developing through the day Wednesday, before veering to northwest early Wednesday night. Most higher resolution guidance along with WPC guidance hits this area fairly hard with precipitation. Lower elevations probably mix with rain which will drastically cut down on snowfall amounts, but the higher terrain areas could reach at least 6 inches. We therefore issue an Winter Weather Advisory to cover this threat. Breezy west to southwest winds expected to develop late tonight into Wednesday, especially northeast of the Lakes with wind gusts of 30- 35 mph along immediate shorelines. Some leftover northwest flow upslope expected Wednesday night with additional minor accumulations mainly across higher terrain areas where upsloping will be maximized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 HRRR still aggressive on snow amounts on the south side of the metro... Should be interesting to see if we can get something decent cranking for a couple hours in the morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 WPC D1-2 Liquid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 Nice rime covered mountaintops today. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 HRRR continues to like that early SW flow.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 It's the surface temperatures that needs to be overcome for the buffalo area.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 Latest HRRR has over an inch liquid for watertown, not sure about p-type..Nws talking about mostly a WSW flow turning"westerly" but HRRR is definitely signaling more SW early on..Will be interesting to see how this model verifies.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 Another increase wrt the kbuf snow map 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Another increase wrt the kbuf snow map They’re catching on 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 I don’t think anywhere in WNY will see 6”+ given the surface temps. Ratios will be very low but I could see 3-4” in spots inland just south of BUF. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 8 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: I don’t think anywhere in WNY will see 6”+ given the surface temps. Ratios will be very low but I could see 3-4” in spots inland just south of BUF. I think this has minor overachiever potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 One positive is it's been pretty cold the last few days with highs in the mid 20s and lows in the teens.. Currently sitting at 18°, ground is plenty cold.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 9, 2020 Author Share Posted December 9, 2020 These temps have allowed HV to make lots of snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 LR NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 9, 2020 Author Share Posted December 9, 2020 5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: LR NAM It's been trending weaker and more south with each run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 8 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: LR NAM Liking the look of that. These overrunning events can produce. Unless it decides to cut of course! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 9, 2020 Author Share Posted December 9, 2020 I would prefer a major cutter for LES behind, don't see that in the cards though. The worst track is when it goes right over head. Too warm for snow in front and behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 I like the latest ARW map for the morning event. At least off Erie. 1-2” along the lake and into the metro where it will mix more. 2-4” into the suburbs. 4-6” high point somewhere out Alden Akron area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 Having a super warm lake acts like a double edged sword sometimes especially with SW-WSW flow events unless its a super cold airmass but unfortunately this isn't one of those instances. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 Fantasy land Canadian is a crush job for all. Need to see the flakes in reality to get excited. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 According to the European all we have is tomorrow, everything is either to far NW or to far SE lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 Just started snowing Imby.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 12 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Just started snowing Imby.. Congrats. Will dry up on the downslope for me. I'll be surprised by a dusting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 At least it's cold and frosty. 20° and even the recycling is covered. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 Hilarious. Radar is total junk nothing like the garbage HHHR and precip is rain at 35 degrees lmfao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 4 hours ago, wolfie09 said: According to the European all we have is tomorrow, everything is either to far NW or to far SE lol If the mid Atlantic cashes in before I do I'm selling my Jobu doll...cerrano was right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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