Upstate/Eastern New York

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, Geez150 said:

I'd love to. Was up that way (Fort Kent) for the first time last January on our yearly snowmobile trip. It was awesome. Every day can cold with no worries of snow disappearing right in front of your eyes. Even besides the great riding we had. Just driving around town and seeing the snow banks at the end of driveways, that you could tell had been there for some time brought back childhood memories from the 90s. I know you always remember the good in things, but growing up in the 90s it seemed like we always had snow banks and snow on the ground to play with. I mean sure there may have been one warm winter here and there but if you had one you could count on next winter to right the ship. I am so disappointed thinking about this winter that may not happen along with all the future winters that may never happen....time to try out this new maple whisky I picked up today...thanks a lot guys, lol.

Im from NYC but I guess I have been spoiled from the 40+ inch snowfalls   I experienced  years ago. I envy you guys from the lakes region. 

[Geez150]

I grew up in Batavia so we were sometimes lucky to pick up scrapes from LE when it was more north then normal. Which back then it seemed more normal for the city of Buffalo and down stream east, Northern Erie, and parts of Genesee to get good snow. Now it seems more so south Erie, Wyoming, Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties only.

[wolfie09]

How about them GMEN lol Defense really stepping up of late..

 

[BuffaloWeather]

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Just go to Marquette =)

I like snow, but would never move for it. I didn't realize there were people that would spend millions to see snow like some of the posters up in the NE forums. That is literally insane. I actually prefer the heat and sun to it, but LES bands are something that would be tough to live without.

[Thinksnow18]

17 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I like snow, but would never move for it. I didn't realize there were people that would spend millions to see snow like some of the posters up in the NE forums. That is literally insane. I actually prefer the heat and sun to it, but LES bands are something that would be tough to live without.

Lol we’re about to find out what that’s like

[MJO812]

 The vortex  has been getting attacked and it looks like it will continue.  Hopefully that means great news for us soon.

[CNY_WX]

42 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

How about them GMEN lol Defense really stepping up of late..

 

I love what Joe Judge has done with this team.  They play hard, especially on defense.  The offense the last few weeks has done just enough to win.  And to win today with Colt McCoy at QB, it’s his first win as a starter since 2014.  I don’t expect them to win the Super Bowl this year, hopefully that will be the Bills.  But if they can hold on to win the NFC East and make the playoffs, that will be a big step forward!

[Geez150]

5 minutes ago, CNY_WX said:

I love what Joe Judge has done with this team.  They play hard, especially on defense.  The offense the last few weeks has done just enough to win.  And to win today with Colt McCoy at QB, it’s his first win as a starter since 2014.  I don’t expect them to win the Super Bowl this year, hopefully that will be the Bills.  But if they can hold on to win the NFC East and make the playoffs, that will be a big step forward!

Bills fan here. But I'm rooting for Alex Smith and the football team to win the NFC east. If you watch the film on Alex's recovery it's not hard to root for him.

[Geez150]

26 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

 The vortex  has been getting attacked and it looks like it will continue.  Hopefully that means great news for us soon.

Been seeing reports of this, but it looks like we won't feel the effects of this until the end of December and into January...

[MJO812]

54 minutes ago, Geez150 said:

Been seeing reports of this, but it looks like we won't feel the effects of this until the end of December and into January...

Hopefully it works out

The vortex was attacked and dislodged last winter but it was dislodged on the wrong side.

[PerintonMan]

7 hours ago, MJO812 said:

You should move to Caribou if you love snow cover and cold.

I'll pass. To be honest, I'm most excited by the extreme events. Blizzard of 93, Blizzard of 96 in my childhood. "Nemo" in Boston in 2013 was my high water mark.

I know synoptically we're just not in as favorable an area for that kind of storm, and that's OK given the general "wintriness" that is usually pleasant, but even an 8-12" type of event, which is nothing earth-shattering but fun to follow, seem like they've been pretty rare around here. Maybe it was just last year that had a really mediocre pattern.

I think two years ago MLK weekend was the last significant storm of that kind. Before that, I visited in mid-March either 3 or 4 years ago when ROC got something like 18", albeit spread out over about 48 hours (it's no New England Miller B, where 18" in 12 hours isn't unheard of, but I'd take it).

[PerintonMan]

5 hours ago, rclab said:

Rochester has something missing in my NYC area and even, more often now, in Boston. It has a constant winter feel. The overcast sky. The continued stray flakes. The anticipation of a gift from the lakes or a fine result from a storm that would water our all ready bleak cold season coastal yards. No, P M, when it comes to winter, Rochester is indeed blessed, As always....

One of the nice things about ROC, again from my impression over 2.5 years, is that p-type can usually be taken for granted. The overcast gets to me, but the reliable flurries (or better) 4-5 days a week is nice.

In Boston I was constantly sweating the rain/mix line. A lot of days of 39 degrees and mist. But you occasionally get hammered (Nemo, all of 2015 which I just missed out on having moved to CA in mid-January). Actually, the one thing I hated the most about Boston weather was the month of June. About half of the month, 20 miles inland would be 75 and partly cloudy, but in Boston it'd be 65 and overcast. June 2009 (my first in Boston) was brutal.

Sorry to go OT, but let's be honest, there is nothing going on right now.

[rochesterdave]

3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I like snow, but would never move for it. I didn't realize there were people that would spend millions to see snow like some of the posters up in the NE forums. That is literally insane. I actually prefer the heat and sun to it, but LES bands are something that would be tough to live without.

Wrong forum

[rochesterdave]

49 minutes ago, PerintonMan said:

I'll pass. To be honest, I'm most excited by the extreme events. Blizzard of 93, Blizzard of 96 in my childhood. "Nemo" in Boston in 2013 was my high water mark.

I know synoptically we're just not in as favorable an area for that kind of storm, and that's OK given the general "wintriness" that is usually pleasant, but even an 8-12" type of event, which is nothing earth-shattering but fun to follow, seem like they've been pretty rare around here. Maybe it was just last year that had a really mediocre pattern.

I think two years ago MLK weekend was the last significant storm of that kind. Before that, I visited in mid-March either 3 or 4 years ago when ROC got something like 18", albeit spread out over about 48 hours (it's no New England Miller B, where 18" in 12 hours isn't unheard of, but I'd take it).

We did have a 14” last November. And a 12” in February. Both last year. But I hear ya. 
Stick around. Synoptically, Rochester cashed in a lot. Coupled with the NE wind on the backside we can do really well. In 1999 we had 41” in 2 storms that happened over 3 days. The Storm of the Century dumped 2 feet inside of 12 hours. The Snowicane dumped 24”+ on Northern sections. 
But you’re right, 6-12” storms are more common. 

[Snowstorms]

2 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

We did have a 14” last November. And a 12” in February. Both last year. But I hear ya. 
Stick around. Synoptically, Rochester cashed in a lot. Coupled with the NE wind on the backside we can do really well. In 1999 we had 41” in 2 storms that happened over 3 days. The Storm of the Century dumped 2 feet inside of 12 hours. The Snowicane dumped 24”+ on Northern sections. 
But you’re right, 6-12” storms are more common. 

That Blizzard of 99 was epic. I was a little kid so I don't recall but it dumped 16-24" across Toronto. We finished Jan 1999 with 46". They called the army to help shovel the snow. I believe its in our top 5. March 1870 takes the cake with 62". Big storms are rare here but 12-16" storms can happen every 1-3 years. 07-08 had 3 of them and another 3 8-12" storms. 

[rochesterdave]

12 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

That Blizzard of 99 was epic. I was a little kid so I don't recall but it dumped 16-24" across Toronto. We finished Jan 1999 with 46". They called the army to help shovel the snow. I believe its in our top 5. March 1870 takes the cake with 62". Big storms are rare here but 12-16" storms can happen every 1-3 years. 07-08 had 3 of them and another 3 8-12" storms. 

Toronto can be tough. Amazing the difference from one side of the lake to the other. You guys get sneaky lake effect every so often. 
I didn’t know about the 62”!!! That’s epic for any region

[Snowstorms]

1 minute ago, rochesterdave said:

Toronto can be tough. Amazing the difference from one side of the lake to the other. You guys get sneaky lake effect every so often. 
I didn’t know about the 62”!!! That’s epic for any region

I agree. East to West winds are rare. You guys in Upstate NY get all the fun when winds are out of the NW or WNW. This year sucks for lake effect so far. 

Yeah check it out. Two 20" storms and one 16". Truly epic. 

https://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_data/daily_data_e.html?hlyRange=1953-01-01|1969-05-31&dlyRange=1840-03-01|2017-04-27&mlyRange=1840-01-01|2006-12-01&StationID=5051&Prov=ON&urlExtension=_e.html&searchType=stnName&optLimit=yearRange&StartYear=1840&EndYear=2008&selRowPerPage=25&Line=0&searchMethod=contains&txtStationName=toronto&timeframe=2&Month=3&Day=1&Year=1870  

[BuffaloWeather]

And just like that the last few GFS runs look pretty good. A few LES events and 2 synoptic systems. Models are completely lost, trust nothing outside 3-4 days.

[Geez150]

I have no idea how they gather information. But do you think they are lost because they are working off inputs from the 70s-00s when there was more cold, plus working off current inputs of warm? And when looking at everything they can't make a good forecast?

[Thinksnow18]

28 minutes ago, Geez150 said:

I have no idea how they gather information. But do you think they are lost because they are working off inputs from the 70s-00s when there was more cold, plus working off current inputs of warm? And when looking at everything they can't make a good forecast?

I’ve asked this since last year. Model output seems to be at an all time high for inept forecasts. 

[winter_rules]

1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said:

I’ve asked this since last year. Model output seems to be at an all time high for inept forecasts. 

I have also thought the same thing.  They seem to be always trying to show cold weather just around the corner, which may have been more prevalent 20 years ago?  

[rochesterdave]

2 hours ago, Geez150 said:

I have no idea how they gather information. But do you think they are lost because they are working off inputs from the 70s-00s when there was more cold, plus working off current inputs of warm? And when looking at everything they can't make a good forecast?

My issue is that they don’t learn. Well not really learn, but correct. A huge government model should review its forecasts and see they are continually over forecasting snow and cold and adjust. They simply don’t. 

[Thinksnow18]

30 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

My issue is that they don’t learn. Well not really learn, but correct. A huge government model should review its forecasts and see they are continually over forecasting snow and cold and adjust. They simply don’t. 

Correct. With the amount of money that’s put into these models you’d expect some accuracy more that 24 to 48 hours out.

[Syrmax]

42 minutes ago, winter_rules said:

I have also thought the same thing.  They seem to be always trying to show cold weather just around the corner, which may have been more prevalent 20 years ago?  

Not so sure...being an "old timer"...i distinctly remember the GFS always overdoing the cold going back to the 1990s and early 00's.  It's tendency to be too far S&E with east coast systems (esp in the medium range) and to lose storms, only to have them magically reappear as the event draws closer, seems to be relatively unchanged.  At least that's my unwashed perception...

[BuffaloWeather]

Next chance of snow around the area

Then as the cold front tied to the low swings through by
Sunday night, potential remains for an active period of lake
effect to develop early next week. Plenty of time to start
looking at more details on that as we move later into this week.

Well aside from higher elevations in tug on Weds

Not sure we will need an
advisory for this event as temps are marginal and snow rates
even on Tug Hill Wednesday will likely remain less than 1/2" per
hour. It will just snow for a while so that will allow for
totals to reach vcnty of 3-5 inches by time snow diminishes late
Wednesday night lastly on the higher terrain east of Lake
Ontario. Breezy for some areas too as sfc low tracking northern
Ontario to Quebec results in gusty west-southwest winds with
gusts over 30 mph on Wednesday, especially to northeast of Lake
Erie and Lake Ontario.

[Syrmax]

18 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said:

I’m thinking 50% Climo snowfall looks very likely right now...unless something drastic changes 

It's early.  We (KSYR) are far behind Climo at this point but the averaged values are still low.  November averages 6-9" of snowfall in November (I forget if it's 6 or 9").   As its only 12/7, and sitting here with 3.5" total,  it's  ~25% of average to date, but of course we should only have received 1/10th of our seasonal snowfall thusfar.  So 25% of 10% is still a small number.  If we are still at these values by end of December, I think we'll have to ratchet up the Panic Meter level.

 

[wolfie09]

Looks a possible few inches..

[wolfie09]

Nam and rgem with a similar look..

[winter_rules]

54 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Not so sure...being an "old timer"...i distinctly remember the GFS always overdoing the cold going back to the 1990s and early 00's.  It's tendency to be too far S&E with east coast systems (esp in the medium range) and to lose storms, only to have them magically reappear as the event draws closer, seems to be relatively unchanged.  At least that's my unwashed perception...

Interesting.  Now that you mention it, the shift to the NW has always seemed inevitable for any nor’easter type of storm even back in high school when I started paying attention to weather in the early 2000s. 

[wolfie09]

This is the kind of track we need to make us all happy lol