wolfie09 Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 What they expect.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 16 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Just in case we make a miracle comeback lol What this says is they think there's potential. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, vortmax said: What this says is they think there's potential. It’s like one in a million...so you’re saying there’s a chance?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 3, 2020 Author Share Posted December 3, 2020 I mean EPS look fine. It's Mid December next week, don't need below normal temps anymore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I mean EPS look fine. It's Mid December next week, don't need below normal temps anymore. So my guess is the GEFS is not lining up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 3, 2020 Author Share Posted December 3, 2020 3 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: So my guess is the GEFS is not lining up? GEFS look fine too. Is it best pattern of all time, no. Its serviceable though. Dec 12-20th look fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: GEFS look fine too. Is it best pattern of all time, no. Its serviceable though. One would think (I try not to) that with both ensembles showing the PV over Hudson Bay we’d get quite a few chances for clippers or waves of energy around the base of that trough giving us a more active pattern. I also think that’s the fly in the ointment as well however. As these short waves time up with southern stream LP’s they’re capturing these storms and we’re getting the typical cutter parade. Might be nice to see these not time so well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Isn't nearly all of this possible snow related to Fridays sloppy event? That Sunday storm is a complete lost cause..I don't think any of this map is attributed to that. 2 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Just in case we make a miracle comeback lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Think this is uoslope lake affect from a n wind on periphery of storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Yeah definitely can't be Friday, just not enough precipitation and it's warm on all guidance.. I agree that it probably has to do with any Lake enhancement/effect and potential wrap around moisture which is obviously unlikely..(some lake effect is possible) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 3, 2020 Author Share Posted December 3, 2020 This is what a perfect track is giving SNE for the next storm... Get me cold air and you'll get snow. These totals would be 10-20"+ if they had any cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 3, 2020 Author Share Posted December 3, 2020 1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said: One would think (I try not to) that with both ensembles showing the PV over Hudson Bay we’d get quite a few chances for clippers or waves of energy around the base of that trough giving us a more active pattern. I also think that’s the fly in the ointment as well however. As these short waves time up with southern stream LP’s they’re capturing these storms and we’re getting the typical cutter parade. Might be nice to see these not time so well The PV is not over Hudson Bay there. It's still pretty far north. Our only hope is for SSW to break it apart later in Dec. into Jan. I never realized how much we depend on pieces of the PV to break off for our area to get into good patterns. Basically if you have a strong PV you get a below average snowfall winter here. As cold air is a necessity for LES. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 It's also because the N stream trough is bringing cold air with it, the southern vort by itself is almost all rain..It's a late phaser.. When the European phased the system early it crushed NY state lol Some areas in VT are forecast 12"-18".. The southern stream closed low will have been picked up by the northern stream trough by Saturday morning. From here the now shortwave will progress northeast across the northern half of the eastern seaboard. Thus, its corresponding Nor`easter will continue it`s northeastward track along the eastern seaboard and keep its precipitation shield out of the forecast area. That said, enough cyclonic flow and deepening cold air mass will produce lake clouds and a few lake effect snow showers southeast of both Great Lakes both days this the weekend. Lake effect showers will continue through the start of the new work week. Another closed low over western Ontario will drop south and traverse south through the longwave trough across the western Great Lakes and eventually the Ohio Valley Sunday night through Monday. In its midst, synoptic moisture will increase across the region which will feed the ongoing lake snows south and southeast of both lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 17 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: The PV is not over Hudson Bay there. It's still pretty far north. Our only hope is for SSW to break it apart later in Dec. into Jan. I never realized how much we depend on pieces of the PV to break off for our area to get into good patterns. Basically if you have a strong PV you get a below average snowfall winter here. As cold air is a necessity for LES. Don't need an SSW to have cross polar flow. Although having an SSW would help to provide sustained cold, it's not always needed for our area. If we can get into a more typical Nina pattern, i.e. poleward Aleutian ridge, it would create enough cross polar flow to allow for some decent cold outbreaks. In that scenario, the coldest anomalies would be west of us, but it would set the stage for an active storm track through the area and ultimately lake effect snow outbreaks. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 3, 2020 Author Share Posted December 3, 2020 3 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: Don't need an SSW to have cross polar flow. Although having an SSW would help to provide sustained cold, it's not always needed for our area. If we can get into a more typical Nina pattern, i.e. poleward Aleutian ridge, it would create enough cross polar flow to allow for some decent cold outbreaks. In that scenario, the coldest anomalies would be west of us, but it would set the stage for an active storm track through the area and ultimately lake effect snow outbreaks. Hoping for a Dec 15th-Jan 15th like 1998-99 Nina event. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 3, 2020 Author Share Posted December 3, 2020 Looks like a few things to track towards middle of the month 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 21 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Looks like a few things to track towards middle of the month Miller B? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 4, 2020 Author Share Posted December 4, 2020 Snowboard all set! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 4, 2020 Author Share Posted December 4, 2020 16 minutes ago, cleetussnow said: Miller B? Miller lite 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 2 hours ago, tim123 said: Think this is uoslope lake affect from a n wind on periphery of storm This appears to be the case. I guess there is just enough moisture and adequate 850's for some action. I didn't think so at first but the 3k NAM soundings support it. As you mention, It's going to take the little orographic kick to get anything significant. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Typically I'd like to se storm a bit closer to be excited but its all we got at this point 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Just now, tim123 said: Typically I'd like to se storm a bit closer to be excited but its all we got at this point lol, I'm right there wiith you. I'll take flurries at this point. Just something so it doesnt feel like we live in North Carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Rgem Saturday evening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: Snowboard all set! With that extension on your yardstick you must really be optimistic, lol. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 4, 2020 Author Share Posted December 4, 2020 1 hour ago, CNY_WX said: I'm expecting that to be my yearly total. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 1 hour ago, CNY_WX said: Yeah. Where does BW think he lives? The Rochester airport? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 So I guess 0z hrrr goes out to 48 these days, looks decent up this way as well as the NAM products, rgem not as nice.. Take what I can get.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 This is a bone dry airmass above 800mb, with a weak capping inversion. That means only have about 5000 feet of atmosphere to work with. But below that we have a saturated layer with pretty steep lapse rates, although surface temps on the lake plain look a little dodgey during the day. If we can just get some snow showers that would be nice for me at least, planning to cut down the tree this weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Man, the hills in southern Madison county have been making out great with all these silly elevation-dependent events and "lake effect" events with strong winds that blow everything towards them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Nice virga storm going on right now! There's no excuse now, we should be snowing not wondering if it'll snow! Simply pathetic Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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