BuffaloWeather Posted November 30, 2020 Author Share Posted November 30, 2020 38 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Detroit 7.1”... Cleveland up to a foot... most of Ohio between 5 and 10”...Buffalo...car and rooftop dusting...if we live by this slim margin all winter it will be the biggest kick in the Johnson since the dealer in Vegas vacation asked Clark if he’d give him $50 bucks to do it... I agree. Temps are pretty marginal for lower elevations. Going to have to get some really good rates with temps above freezing for anything to really stick. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 30, 2020 Author Share Posted November 30, 2020 With 1 day left in Nov. Looks like we finish around 6th for warmest November on record. AVERAGE MONTHLY: 46.7 DPTR FM NORMAL: 5.8 .8" of snowfall on season at KBUF. -7.5" below normal 1 47.9 1931 2 47.8 1902 3 47.1 1948 4 46.9 1975 5 46.9 2001 6 46.5 2011 7 46.2 2015 8 45.1 2016 9 45.1 1994 10 44.8 1909 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 30, 2020 Author Share Posted November 30, 2020 GEFS still looking good for mid month 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 30, 2020 Author Share Posted November 30, 2020 Rain today will transition to snow across the higher terrain of the S. Tier tonight. Greatest snowfall accumulations across the Chautauqua Ridge and Boston Hills with 8” to 15” through Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 47 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Detroit 7.1”... Cleveland up to a foot... most of Ohio between 5 and 10”...Buffalo...car and rooftop dusting...if we live by this slim margin all winter it will be the biggest kick in the Johnson since the dealer in Vegas vacation asked Clark if he’d give him $50 bucks to do it... Hey, at least your dusting will be deeper than my dusting. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 Those long range products were beyond worthless last winter. I hope they perform better this year. It was the one thing that really added to the exasperation of last winter- the long range constantly promising winter just around the corner. “Wait two weeks!” On and on. It never came. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 14 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Those long range products were beyond worthless last winter. I hope they perform better this year. It was the one thing that really added to the exasperation of last winter- the long range constantly promising winter just around the corner. “Wait two weeks!” On and on. It never came. Maybe, but the teleconnections (PNA, NAO, and AO) this year are more aligned with colder weather starting next week and beyond (unlike last year when these indices were consistently at odds with the operational model LR forecasts). Anyone have a good link for the EPO forecast? 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 21 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Those long range products were beyond worthless last winter. I hope they perform better this year. It was the one thing that really added to the exasperation of last winter- the long range constantly promising winter just around the corner. “Wait two weeks!” On and on. It never came. Oh it came...in April and the first half of May... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 I can’t copy and paste because it’s too big but if you search: Frontier Weather A Quick Guide to Important Drivers of US Winter Weather Patterns it’ll take you to a fantastic pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 30, 2020 Author Share Posted November 30, 2020 25 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Those long range products were beyond worthless last winter. I hope they perform better this year. It was the one thing that really added to the exasperation of last winter- the long range constantly promising winter just around the corner. “Wait two weeks!” On and on. It never came. From Jan. 27th 2020. Most of the long range showed warm weather last winter. It's been a combination of not just the +NAO but the -PNA and +EPO/+WPO. All the indices have been going the wrong way. It takes a lot to go wrong to get nearly +10 temps in January. If we get one indice to go the right way, the rest don't. Right now we have a PNA ridge but the EPO is really positive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 https://frontierweather.dtn.com/WinterClimateDrivers.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 12 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: https://frontierweather.dtn.com/WinterClimateDrivers.pdf Even with a +EPO you can get below normal with a -NAO...which is forecasted in Dec. I think we're looking better this year than the last couple. Don't let this storm drag you down. It may just be an overperformer. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 3 minutes ago, vortmax said: Even with a +EPO you can get below normal with a -NAO...which is forecasted in Dec. I think we're looking better this year than the last couple. Don't let this storm drag you down. It may just be an overperformer. It's tough to trust that a negative NAO would have any staying power, considering how lacking it has been, especially during the cold seasons. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 30, 2020 Author Share Posted November 30, 2020 I think 2006-2007 is the top analog. Correct me if I'm wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 10 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: It's tough to trust that a negative NAO would have any staying power, considering how lacking it has been, especially during the cold seasons. The pattern timing is just off, it's been going negative for 2-3 month intervals, but in the Apr-Jun timeframes over the past couple of years. If we can get lucky with it going negative for 2-3 months starting Dec or Jan, we'll all be quite happy. I believe this year we hit it. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 30, 2020 Author Share Posted November 30, 2020 17 minutes ago, vortmax said: Even with a +EPO you can get below normal with a -NAO...which is forecasted in Dec. I think we're looking better this year than the last couple. Don't let this storm drag you down. It may just be an overperformer. Yeah. You either need some help from the Pacific or some Atlantic blocking. - EPO or -NAO. If you get both, you get the truly epic events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 I live south, snow goes north, I more north, snow goes south lol Obviously J/K, part of life in LES country, just enough to tease freak 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 30, 2020 Author Share Posted November 30, 2020 12 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: It's tough to trust that a negative NAO would have any staying power, considering how lacking it has been, especially during the cold seasons. I think it has to do with the rapid warming of the waters off of Maine. It's warming quicker than almost any place on the planet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 15 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I think 2006-2007 is the top analog. Correct me if I'm wrong? I'm sure most of us off Ontario wouldn't complain about that lol ...OSWEGO COUNTY... .REDFIELD..... 388 INCHES .PALERMO...... 275 INCHES .PARISH....... 269 INCHES .BENNETTS BRG. 242 INCHES .MEXICO....... 227 INCHES .PULASKI...... 221 INCHES .MINETTO...... 221 INCHES .WEST MONROE.. 217 INCHES .FULTON....... 217 INCHES .SCRIBA....... 213 INCHES .CONSTANTIA... 207 INCHES .HANNIBAL..... 198 INCHES .OSWEGO SW.... 196 INCHES .OSWEGO....... 160 INCHES (CITY) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 30, 2020 Author Share Posted November 30, 2020 5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: I'm sure most of us off Ontario wouldn't complain about that lol ...OSWEGO COUNTY... .REDFIELD..... 388 INCHES .PALERMO...... 275 INCHES .PARISH....... 269 INCHES .BENNETTS BRG. 242 INCHES .MEXICO....... 227 INCHES .PULASKI...... 221 INCHES .MINETTO...... 221 INCHES .WEST MONROE.. 217 INCHES .FULTON....... 217 INCHES .SCRIBA....... 213 INCHES .CONSTANTIA... 207 INCHES .HANNIBAL..... 198 INCHES .OSWEGO SW.... 196 INCHES .OSWEGO....... 160 INCHES (CITY) Yeah that was a really good year for you guys due to that 1 lake snow event. It hit here too, but south of buffalo and most of the lake was frozen. Buffalo had around 88" that year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 When I moved to Fulton in 2015 the average was near 180" a year, now down to 171" and continues to lower lol Oswego went from 150" to 141° with the new 30 year update.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 When you average that type of snow it's much easier for below average, especially these days..I haven't seen 1 year above average yet in Fulton or Altmar lol Mainly Average-below average.. In 20 years we will be the new syracuse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 20 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I think it has to do with the rapid warming of the waters off of Maine. It's warming quicker than almost any place on the planet. After plotting all the NAO data since 1950, there is a slightly positive trendline. Interesting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 8 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Yeah that was a really good year for you guys due to that 1 lake snow event. It hit here too, but south of buffalo and most of the lake was frozen. Buffalo had around 88" that year. Oh yeah forgot about that haha Doesn't look as impressive now lol Oswego county did have some nice events that year including 1'-3' feet in the first week of April.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 30, 2020 Author Share Posted November 30, 2020 I think we're running 50/50 for above average snow the last 10 years in hamburg. 5 above 5 below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 I live south, snow goes north, I more north, snow goes south lol Obviously J/K, part of life in LES country, just enough to tease freakVerbatim that band would be about 2-5 miles to my North, lol, but easy enough to chase so let it Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 30, 2020 Author Share Posted November 30, 2020 Part of the PV near Hudson bay on latest GFS. @Thinksnow18 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 30, 2020 Author Share Posted November 30, 2020 Every model shows 6-10" of snow for my area the next 10 days. I'll take the under. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 Yeah the european was meh lol Has some region wide snow showers the next couple days and once again Fri/sat but both times surface temps are marginal especially lower elevations.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 Some guidance still brings this weekends system inland, similar to today's event.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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