Upstate/Eastern New York

[TugHillMatt]

6 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

I agree about the wearing thin part. We’re used to lake effect events and Arctic chances...our cold air is system made instead of from the Arctic source region and all our LP tracks the next 2 weeks look warm with cold shots behind leaving us wet and frozen with little to no snow. Something needs to shake this pattern up.

I mean it's not like a total shut-out, with some minor snow chances over the next two weeks (unless you live on the top of a hill looking down at everybody else)...but still pretty depressing that that's all we can get. Things look even worse for the New England crew, other than the mountain tops.

[MJO812]

12 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

I agree about the wearing thin part. We’re used to lake effect events and Arctic chances...our cold air is system made instead of from the Arctic source region and all our LP tracks the next 2 weeks look warm with cold shots behind leaving us wet and frozen with little to no snow. Something needs to shake this pattern up.

You will still get 80 + by the time its over. Try living on the coast where I only got 2 inches last winter.

[wolfie09]

European has a late capture wrt to next weekend/week, retrogrades into maine with some wrap around/enhancement, just another solution lol

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

WATCH posted for south of Buffalo... figures...  on to the next one...

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
205 PM EST Sun Nov 29 2020

NYZ019-020-085-300315-
/O.NEW.KBUF.WS.A.0009.201201T0600Z-201202T2200Z/
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park,
and Springville
205 PM EST Sun Nov 29 2020

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy wet snow possible. Total snow accumulations of a
  foot or more possible across the higher terrain. Winds could
  gust as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie counties.

* WHEN...From late Monday night through Wednesday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could become very difficult. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning and evening commutes for
  both Tuesday and Wednesday.

[wolfie09]

It's hard to have a "good pattern" for everyone..lol 

Some people need NW Flow while others need SW, hard to get them both lol 

We hardly ever have big synoptic events for both central and western NY, always losers and winners lol

[Buckeyes_Suck]

1 hour ago, wolfie09 said:

It's hard to have a "good pattern" for everyone..lol 

Some people need NW Flow while others need SW, hard to get them both lol 

We hardly ever have big synoptic events for both central and western NY, always losers and winners lol

I vote for cold moist sw flow 

[TugHillMatt]

1 hour ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

WATCH posted for south of Buffalo... figures...  on to the next one...

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
205 PM EST Sun Nov 29 2020

NYZ019-020-085-300315-
/O.NEW.KBUF.WS.A.0009.201201T0600Z-201202T2200Z/
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park,
and Springville
205 PM EST Sun Nov 29 2020

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy wet snow possible. Total snow accumulations of a
  foot or more possible across the higher terrain. Winds could
  gust as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie counties.

* WHEN...From late Monday night through Wednesday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could become very difficult. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning and evening commutes for
  both Tuesday and Wednesday.

Why did I NOT take that teaching job in Springville?!?!?! Gaaaaaah, kicking myself! lol

[TugHillMatt]

1 hour ago, wolfie09 said:

It's hard to have a "good pattern" for everyone..lol 

Some people need NW Flow while others need SW, hard to get them both lol 

We hardly ever have big synoptic events for both central and western NY, always losers and winners lol

There is a ridge that runs between Amboy/Williamstown area over to Florence in N. Oneida county. I think it is a hidden snow secret. The winter I lived up there, any time I would go to Camden, that ridge almost always had more snow than S. Redfield where I was at. It would cash in on NW winds, was far enough North to get snow from the West wind bands (what little we had), and often would get some upsloping or something when there were SW winds..I could see the moisture flowing from the bands coming from Lake Erie and it was like an upslope effect from those bands. Plus, it was a higher elevation. It's a beautiful area too, with gorgeous evergreens and a very mountainous feel.

[TugHillMatt]

33 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said:

I vote for cold moist sw flow 

[rochesterdave]

I vote for a NE flow

[swva]

West or slight WNW

[rochesterdave]

CLE looking good on all the short range models. 

[BuffaloWeather]

There are patterns that benefit the entire region. A clipper one is the easiest choice. SW winds in front, NW behind. 1-3 to 3-6 synoptic followed by lake effect, one after another with reinforcing shots of colder air.

Miller Bs usually benefit the entire forum as well. Miller As usually target one specific region western/central/or eastern NY.

[BuffaloWeather]

2 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

Why did I NOT take that teaching job in Springville?!?!?! Gaaaaaah, kicking myself! lol

start applying

[BuffaloWeather]

Pretty sure I'm off Weds and will be chasing this at max elevation on Chautuaqua ridge.

[BuffaloWeather]

The average high/low the first week of December is high 30s/high 20s, as we head into the 2nd week of December normal temps bring us snow. So as long as we're not torching we should be okay. That's what the long range forecasting shows currently, right around average temps.

A strong gradient showing up next 2 weeks, lots of storms to track. I think we hit on one of them.

 

[DeltaT13]

Spent some time sprucing up my backyard weather observatory this year.  Snowboard is in place along with a my total snowfall on the ground stake.  Official cocorahs rain guage is setup and in winter mode. And most exciting is the addition of the Tempest weather station by Weatherflow and a Davis Vantage Vue.  Should be fun to cross calibrate those two stations.

We have an interesting week of weather on tap. Hopeful I can make more than just rain measurements!

if anyone has stations and wants to discuss data logging and web interfaces I’m all ears (send a pm). There is a whole world to these backyard weather stations that I didn’t know about, it’s fun but a little daunting.

[BuffaloWeather]

1 minute ago, DeltaT13 said:

Spent some time sprucing up my backyard weather observatory this year.  Snowboard is in place along with a my total snowfall on the ground stake.  Official cocorahs rain guage is setup and in winter mode. And most exciting is the addition of the Tempest weather station by Weatherflow and a Davis Vantage Vue.  Should be fun to cross calibrate all those two stations.

We have an interesting week of weather on tap. Hopeful I can make more than just rain measurements!

if anyone has stations and wants to discuss data logging and web interfaces I’m all ears (send a pm). There is a whole world to these backyard weather stations that I didn’t know about, it’s fun but a little daunting.

I'm finishing up my board and stakes this week. I need to get a new weather station.

[BuffaloWeather]

Also got my 2 nest cams installed. You can watch my fence fall down during next wind storm.

[BuffaloWeather]

That's a good look for snow for our region in Mid December

[BuffaloWeather]

Even better on the GEPS

[BuffaloWeather]

Can’t wait for some winter hikes! 

[winter_rules]

3 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

There is a ridge that runs between Amboy/Williamstown area over to Florence in N. Oneida county. I think it is a hidden snow secret. The winter I lived up there, any time I would go to Camden, that ridge almost always had more snow than S. Redfield where I was at. It would cash in on NW winds, was far enough North to get snow from the West wind bands (what little we had), and often would get some upsloping or something when there were SW winds..I could see the moisture flowing from the bands coming from Lake Erie and it was like an upslope effect from those bands. Plus, it was a higher elevation. It's a beautiful area too, with gorgeous evergreens and a very mountainous feel.

You are correct.  Redfield has the reputation for receiving a ton of snow, and they do relative to most areas, but you have to go a little North of Redfield for the truly impressive snow depths.  5 miles N of Redfield is a surprisingly different winter climate than 5 miles S of Redfield.  

[BuffaloWeather]

Should be a really good event for Cleveland and Erie

[rochesterdave]

Hard to recall a better set up for CLE. 

[BuffaloWeather]

1 minute ago, rochesterdave said:

Hard to recall a better set up for CLE. 

Yeah, it's a fantastic setup. The only better would be a few degrees colder.

[rochesterdave]

It’s going to be windy and Rainy in Roc and BUF for the next 3 days while CLE gets a foot. Possibility we do it again in a week. Shoot me now. Lol

[wolfie09]

Here she comes...By tomorrow we should start getting a better idea on LES potential off Ontario, looks to be primarily wed evening into Thursday morning...

[wolfie09]

RGEM likes the pulaski area on north as of now, little south of where some of the global models have it..We walk a fine line between West and WSW flow..

[Thinksnow18]

17 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

RGEM likes the pulaski area on north as of now, little south of where some of the global models have it..We walk a fine line between West and WSW flow..

Detroit 7.1”... Cleveland up to a foot... most of Ohio between 5 and 10”...Buffalo...car and rooftop dusting...if we live by this slim margin all winter it will be the biggest kick in the Johnson since the dealer in Vegas vacation asked Clark if he’d give him $50 bucks to do it...