BuffaloWeather Posted November 28, 2020 Author Share Posted November 28, 2020 The last 3 days have been +8, +14, +10 for temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 On 11/28/2020 at 10:34 PM, BuffaloWeather said: The last 3 days have been +8, +14, +10 for temps Expand There's no struggle these days for daily temps to be 10 to 20 degrees above "normal". Unreal how much things have changed this past decade. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 18z GFS still ends up being a weenie run haha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 If only there was some cold air. The 850’s and 700’s are so close. It’s wild watching the surface LP placement from run to run. They are jumping around by hundreds of miles. Makes a big difference for Erie, CLE and Toronto. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 On 11/28/2020 at 11:16 PM, rochesterdave said: If only there was some cold air. The 850’s and 700’s are so close. It’s wild watching the surface LP placement from run to run. They are jumping around by hundreds of miles. Makes a big difference for Erie, CLE and Toronto. Expand I'm expecting mostly cold rain out of this in Toronto. Is there any model saying anything differently? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 Nice winter pattern setting up on the GFS, looks like a potential clipper pattern setting up in the LR. (As you guys already know lol) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 On 11/28/2020 at 11:19 PM, Ottawa Blizzard said: I'm expecting mostly cold rain out of this in Toronto. Is there any model saying anything differently? Expand NAM has been close. ICON too 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerintonMan Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 On 11/28/2020 at 10:38 PM, TugHillMatt said: There's no struggle these days for daily temps to be 10 to 20 degrees above "normal". Unreal how much things have changed this past decade. Expand I've only lived here 2 years, but anecdotally it seems like there are a lot more temperature forecasts that bust high than bust low, like there's no ceiling to warm air. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 On 11/29/2020 at 1:02 AM, PerintonMan said: I've only lived here 2 years, but anecdotally it seems like there are a lot more temperature forecasts that bust high than bust low, like there's no ceiling to warm air. Expand Exactly. There have been so many times here that the temperature ends up 5 or so degrees warmer than what was called for. The southerly winds off the higher elevations warm the air SO rapidly. P.S. Welcome to the board! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerintonMan Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 On 11/29/2020 at 1:13 AM, TugHillMatt said: Exactly. There have been so many times here that the temperature ends up 5 or so degrees warmer than what was called for. The southerly winds off the higher elevations warm the air SO rapidly. P.S. Welcome to the board! Expand Thanks, I lurked last year and appreciated the model analysis and insight into weather patterns specific to WNY. (And, frankly, as a scientist, I like discussion a little more sophisticated than what I hear on the local news or weather.com.) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 On 11/28/2020 at 11:19 PM, Ottawa Blizzard said: I'm expecting mostly cold rain out of this in Toronto. Is there any model saying anything differently? Expand Nope they all show rain. Great track. Best in years actually but terrible pattern. Hope we turn things around mid Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 Not gonna happen but the 18z NAM 3k still has snow for Toronto 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 On 11/29/2020 at 2:31 AM, rochesterdave said: Not gonna happen but the 18z NAM 3k still has snow for Toronto Expand Riding a thin line. Reminds me of last weeks storm. But as it stands, only the NAM is showing snow for Toronto. It's looking like a rainer for all of us. Would've been great if this storm was in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 The models still have quite a few snow chances after the next storm. It’s coming boys 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 Yeah, this yr is finally behaving the way it should be with a gradual decline wrt temps. Most of us on this forum average over 100"/yr, so we all know its gonna but the weenie in all of us wants it to snow as heavy as possible and pile up as high as possible and it'll happen just not when we want it to, lolSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 On 11/29/2020 at 4:30 AM, CNY-LES FREAK said: Yeah, this yr is finally behaving the way it should be with a gradual decline wrt temps. Most of us on this forum average over 100"/yr, so we all know its gonna but the weenie in all of us wants it to snow as heavy as possible and pile up as high as possible and it'll happen just not when we want it to, lol Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Expand It must feel great to average 100 inches. I only average 25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 On 11/29/2020 at 4:39 AM, MJO812 said: It must feel great to average 100 inches. I only average 25. Expand Well you guys get those big Nor'easter's that can drop >20" once in a while. Would love to experience that. Aside from lake effect snow, most of our synoptic snow every winter is <12" with each storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 On 11/29/2020 at 5:34 AM, Snowstorms said: Well you guys get those big Nor'easter's that can drop >20" once in a while. Would love to experience that. Aside from lake effect snow, most of our synoptic snow every winter is <12" with each storm. Expand Nothing wrong with that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 I want to experience a severe lake effect snow band 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 On 11/29/2020 at 5:43 AM, MJO812 said: I want to experience a severe lake effect snow band Expand You really do. It's something you can only fully appreciate once you've been through it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 Both the european and gfs now send next weekend storm OTS lol We do get into some snow showers/LES via a northern stream disturbance.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 Tough start. It’ll come. We just need to be patient. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 29, 2020 Author Share Posted November 29, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 Rgem gives most of the area some snow showers and squalls.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 On 11/29/2020 at 4:05 PM, wolfie09 said: Rgem gives most of the area some snow showers and squalls.. Expand Yeah both NAM products have some snow the majority of Tuesday and Wednesday. Even if we don’t accumulate that much it should be rather snowy for a couple days. I think 2-4” is possible by Wednesday afternoon in lower elevations with much more SW. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 Some spots in NE OH could see their first footer of the season while we wait for our first 1"! What a jokeSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 On 11/29/2020 at 4:10 PM, lakeeffectkid383 said: Yeah both NAM products have some snow the majority of Tuesday and Wednesday. Even if we don’t accumulate that much it should be rather snowy for a couple days. I think 2-4” is possible by Wednesday afternoon in lower elevations with much more SW. Expand That was my call as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 This system actually rides the spine of the Appalachians which usually doesn't happen but this SLP may do just that. If it was 75 miles further East, we'd all be in good shape, except the Capital gang but its not happening either way. We all stay wet with temps not dropping into the mid to lower 30's until late Tues into Wednesday and by then, the slp is in the process of occluding. We continue to patiently wait for our first accumulating Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 On 11/29/2020 at 4:22 PM, CNY-LES FREAK said: Some spots in NE OH could see their first footer of the season while we wait for our first 1"! What a joke Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Expand You didn't get in on the lake effect band in November that gave @CNY_WX 2 or 3 inches? You really must be in a bad spot of Oswego County. On 11/29/2020 at 4:44 PM, CNY-LES FREAK said: This system actually rides the spine of the Appalachians which usually doesn't happen but this SLP may do just that. If it was 75 miles further East, we'd all be in good shape, except the Capital gang but its not happening either way. We all stay wet with temps not dropping into the mid to lower 30's until late Tues into Wednesday and by then, the slp is in the process of occluding. We continue to patiently wait for our first accumulating Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Expand Patience is wearing thin...especially after the "winter" of last season...although the heaviest snowfall we had in this area last winter was in...the middle of MAY. lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 On 11/29/2020 at 6:34 PM, TugHillMatt said: You didn't get in on the lake effect band in November that gave @CNY_WX 2 or 3 inches? You really must be in a bad spot of Oswego County. Patience is wearing thin...especially after the "winter" of last season...although the heaviest snowfall we had in this area last winter was in...the middle of MAY. lol Expand I agree about the wearing thin part. We’re used to lake effect events and Arctic chances...our cold air is system made instead of from the Arctic source region and all our LP tracks the next 2 weeks look warm with cold shots behind leaving us wet and frozen with little to no snow. Something needs to shake this pattern up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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