Upstate/Eastern New York

[BuffaloWeather]

Upstate NY has had a far above average November so far and will likely finish in the top 5 of warmest Novembers on record.

Buffalo is at +5.2 on the month with a mean temp of 46.9

	
1    47.9    
2    47.8    
3    47.1    
4    46.9    
5    46.9    
6    46.5    
7    46.2    
8    45.1    
9    45.1   
10   44.8    
                        

For temps next 2 weeks, should average around normal for this time of here. Highs around 40 and lows in the upper 20s. The next few days look to be slightly above average.

Our next system comes in on Monday with lots of possible scenarios

EPS mean track

GEFS

NWS discussion

The entire system will become vertically stacked as it slowly
weakens while rotating about somewhere from the eastern Great Lakes
to southern Quebec Tuesday into Wednesday. This will place our
region in a much more showery type regime, with likely periods of
dry time built in, especially away from any lake influences. That
said, this will allow cooler air to filter in across the area from
the west, with the air off the deck cold enough to produce a lake
response downwind of the lakes. Precipitation will possibly mix with
rain over the lower terrain during the daytime, with p-type
remaining all snow across the higher terrain. There will likely be
some accumulating snowfall, especially in lake prone areas across
the higher terrain. To speculate on anything in the way of any snow
amounts is not possible at this point.

There are some hints that the main closed upper low will pull away
to the northeast by Thursday, however upper trough looks to remain
intact over the Northeast. Cyclonic flow and a general west to
northwest flow will keep at least the chance for some precipitation
in the forecast.

Temperatures will slowly fall through the period. Daytime highs in
the upper 40s to mid 50s on Monday, will fall into the 30s for the
mid-week timeframe.

Next week should feature a lot of rain, a lot of wind and possibly some snow? Any snow will likely be from wrap around, but still too early to pinpoint where the low pressure tracks. The EPS is more progressive with less lake effect, the rest of model guidance features it stalling northwest of lake ontario. Either way should be a fun week to track.

[BuffaloWeather]

Indexes. We can work with this in December. We will be lacking a -EPO which IMO is the most important index for our area.

 

[BuffaloWeather]

NAM looks like its going to be more progressive at hour 84

Icon is similar to rest of model guidance and a nice SW flow LES event.

 

[BuffaloWeather]

Looks like GFS is hitting right where the consensus GEFS were near Erie/Cleveland

[TugHillMatt]

Yay, a new thread! Hopefully we will be able to have lots talk about snow actually falling soon.

I don't like that those indices are already heading in the opposite directions from what we want after just a week in December.

[TugHillMatt]

5 minutes ago, Blue Moon said:

With that temperature forecast in the OP, you think we'd be having a Niño winter, not a La Niña. Classic warm Northern Plains and cool Southeast. Considering my location, and the rarity of snowfall (<6" per year), I'll gladly accept this pattern change.

Nashville has also had a very warm November. I suppose the only region of the contiguous U.S. BN this November is the Pacific NW.

I have thought the same. Very El Nino like. My wife's sister and her family live in Clarksville down there. They're originally from PA and I can't believe how much they've acclimated to hot weather. We met for the 4th of July in PA (social distanced of course...haha) in the shade. It was around 80 degrees with a breeze and they were wearing....HOODIES!

[Snowstorms]

10 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

I have thought the same. Very El Nino like. My wife's sister and her family live in Clarksville down there. They're originally from PA and I can't believe how much they've acclimated to hot weather. We met for the 4th of July in PA (social distanced of course...haha) in the shade. It was around 80 degrees with a breeze and they were wearing....HOODIES!

That's the same concept with cold. People in Western Canada laugh at us when our temperatures are in the teens or single digits and we say "it's really cold outside". Try telling that to someone who lives in -20F weather everyday in the winter. 

[BuffaloWeather]

GEM took a step towards the Euro. Miss the storm and the lake effect. Not looking good.

[BuffaloWeather]

1 minute ago, Snowstorms said:

That's the same concept with cold. People in Western Canada laugh at us when our temperatures are in the teens or single digits and we say "it's really cold outside". Try telling that to someone who lives in -20F weather everyday in the winter. 

Yeah I would hate that. Really cold in the winter, cool summers, and very little snow (outside mountain regions). I'd rather be on the beaches in Florida.

[TugHillMatt]

12 minutes ago, Blue Moon said:

That's neat! I'm not far from Clarksville at all. I'm smack in the middle of the state while Clarksville is a 50 mile drive northwest, right on the border with Kentucky.

To be honest, the past few summers haven't been very hot here, but rather very wet. We have had four straight years of above normal rainfall, and I think 2018 was our wettest on record. It would go without saying it's been miserably humid, even if the heat isn't that intense.

After several unusually warm winters- and I mean 75 degrees on Christmas day warm- snow has become even more rare at my latitude and elevation. Our annual snowfall from the 1981-2010 normals is 6", but I expect that to drop to 4 or 5" when the 1991-2020 normals are released. Of the past twenty winters, I can only think of five when Nashville exceeded the average. 2002-03, 2007-08, 2009-10, 2010-11, and 2015-16 (thanks, Winter Storm Jonas). 

We've visited them many times in Clarksville. That area has quite a bit going for it. The rate that it has grown just since they moved there several years ago is crazy. One of the fastest growing cities. They do still chuckle when all the schools close because there's a dusting left over in the shade.  

9 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

That's the same concept with cold. People in Western Canada laugh at us when our temperatures are in the teens or single digits and we say "it's really cold outside". Try telling that to someone who lives in -20F weather everyday in the winter. 

Ha! True. Muskoka, a couple hours north of you, has incredibly much colder winters than you guys in Toronto. The year and a half I lived there provided several days in the -20s and I could feel ice forming on my eye balls. (This has probably lead to me feeling that winters in most of the lower 48 are so LAME. lol...my wife HATED it...I loved the climate there!....but the summers were AWFUL with the black flies and every other blood sucking insect.)

[Snowstorms]

17 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

We've visited them many times in Clarksville. That area has quite a bit going for it. The rate that it has grown just since they moved there several years ago is crazy. One of the fastest growing cities. They do still chuckle when all the schools close because there's a dusting left over in the shade.  

Ha! True. Muskoka, a couple hours north of you, has incredibly much colder winters than you guys in Toronto. The year and a half I lived there provided several days in the -20s and I could feel ice forming on my eye balls. (This has probably lead to me feeling that winters in most of the lower 48 are so LAME. lol...my wife HATED it...I loved the climate there!....but the summers were AWFUL with the black flies and every other blood sucking insect.)

I agree. Once you get out of the city area into the more rural communities, it gets considerably colder. Ohh that sounds rough haha. Canadian winters are known for their cold more than snow expect in the Great Lakes or Atlantic Canada where its both. Where you and I live, we don't experience those constant cold days thankfully. Though if you haven't visited Banff in the winter, you definitely should. It's on my bucket list. 

[wolfie09]

I guess this is the next one huh? Lol 

[wolfie09]

Here was the Canadian..Globals look good in the LR with some northern stream disturbances and lake effect..See how long that last..

[wolfie09]

Gfs still showing LES potential but just like the Canadian it doesn't just sit and spin for days in the same location.. Canadian"spreads the love"..

Now surface temps could prove problematic..

 

[cny rider]

9 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Indexes. We can work with this in December. We will be lacking a -EPO which IMO is the most important index for our area.

 

I could definitely see that for you guys in the lake effect areas.

Here in the center of the state I will take a +PNA over anything else.

 

[Ericjcrash]

Next weekend could be interesting for just about everyone. Something to watch for now...

[rochesterdave]

I don’t mean to be negative. But this will be the second storm with this La Niña type track. Its gonna get old fast. If it nudges just a bit east Toronto could get smacked again. 

[CNY_WX]

3 minutes ago, Blue Moon said:

School is canceled for any snow here. I'm serious.

Snow days could be a thing of the past around here. Now that online teaching has been implemented on a day that schools would be closed they may just make an announcement that school will be remote today.  I don’t know if there are drawbacks to that plan but the days of kids wearing their pajamas inside out may be over. 

[wolfie09]

Start of a trend?

 

[wolfie09]

It doesn't matter wrt to the synoptic aspect but it changes the wind field on the backside.. Obviously just one model..

[Thinksnow18]

18 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

It doesn't matter wrt to the synoptic aspect but it changes the wind field on the backside.. Obviously just one model..

Nooooooooooooooooo... : ()

[Thinksnow18]

12z GFS has the low go right over WNY now... if this trend continues I can see a scenario where the WNY region is in the bullseye 

[wolfie09]

I like what I'm seeing from the gfs, nothing earth shattering but for a global, pretty good lol

[wolfie09]

Nice looking coastal storm next weekend, especially to our east, something to watch

[wolfie09]

The Canadian is farther west with this weeks system creating more of a SW flow..Next weekend also cuts with plenty of westerly LES on the backside..

[TugHillMatt]

2 hours ago, CNY_WX said:

Snow days could be a thing of the past around here. Now that online teaching has been implemented on a day that schools would be closed they may just make an announcement that school will be remote today.  I don’t know if there are drawbacks to that plan but the days of kids wearing their pajamas inside out may be over. 

Agreed! However, I know of several administrators who have said that they would still continue doing snow days as actual "days off" for the school community. Snow days are a part of the culture and many schools even plan their calendar with the mindset that there will be some snow days during the winter. Of course, this could all be just hopeful wishing if Dept. of Education thinks otherwise?

Oh, and kids still wear their pajamas inside out while doing remote learning...saw it several times in the Spring. lol

[wolfie09]

Looks like the trend at 12z was a little later/less phasing and an Eastward track..Not sure it really helps us much.. 

[TugHillMatt]

Just now, wolfie09 said:

Looks like the trend at 12z was a little later phasing and an Eastward track..Not sure it really helps us much.. 

 

Probably doesn't help much...but may help to spread the wealth for lake effect snows? Probably wouldn't give the Buffalo area a solid event.

[wolfie09]

I guess haha..It stalls to our east, doesn't really show much in the way of lake effect..The snow in WNY may be more synoptic in nature..

 

[TugHillMatt]

They're definitely bringing much less synoptic snowfall in general with the farther eastward track.

Lake response is M.I.A.