December 2020 temperature forecast contest

[Roger Smith]

Predict the temperature anomalies in deg F for these nine locations (relative to 1981-2010) ...

 

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

... and check last month if you haven't already entered the winter snowfall contest (closes with this deadline). 

[bkviking]

DCA:  +2.0

NYC:  +2.0

BOS:  +2.2

ORD:  +0.2

ATL:  +0.6

 IAH:  +1.0

DEN:  +2.4

PHX:  +1.9    

SEA:  +0.2

[Rjay]

DCA:  +1.5

NYC:  +2.0

BOS:  +2.5

ORD:  +1.0

ATL:   0.0

 IAH:  0.0

DEN:  +3.0

PHX:  +2.0    

SEA:  +1.8

[wxallannj]

DCA:  +1.1

NYC:  +1.9

BOS:  +2.4

ORD:  +1.2

ATL:   -0.7

 IAH:  0.4

DEN:  +2.2

PHX:  +1.6

SEA:  +1.5

 

Snowfall 

DCA : 21.0

NYC : 29.0

 BOS : 37.0

 ORD :  43.0

 DTW : 47.0

BUF :  70.0

DEN :  51.0

 BTV : 77.0

 SEA :  5.2

[donsutherland1]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

1.0        1.5    1.9       2.3      -0.4     -0.1        2.6      1.8      3.0

[hudsonvalley21]

DCA:  +1.3

NYC:  +1.6

BOS:  +1.5

ORD:  +1.8

ATL:   +0.2

 IAH:  +0.2

DEN:  +2.1

PHX:  +2.1

SEA:  +2.3

[RodneyS]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 0.1      0.9      1.7       2.3      0.0     2.1         -0.6      0.9      0.5

[Scotty Lightning]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

0.5      0.5       0.5        0.5      1.0    1.5       -0.5    1.0     0.0 

[Tom]

DCA:  +1.7

NYC:  +1.3

BOS:  +1.4

ORD:  -0.1

ATL:  +0.2

 IAH:  +0.8

DEN:  +1.1

PHX:  +0.9    

SEA:  +0.4

[wxdude64]

DCA: -0.1

NYC: +0.2

BOS: +0.2

ORD: -0.5

ATL: -0.9

IAH: -0.6

DEN: +0.8

PHX: +1.1

SEA: -0.3

[Roger Smith]

Good, I won't need to look at the old penalty time clock in this ultimate month of the contest ... snowfall contests duly noted here or over there in NOV, will get a table together for those soon. 

Could see some wild swings in temperature this month, I feel, generally mild but a few very cold days. 

+2.7 _ +2.5 _ +1.8 _ +1.9 _ +1.2 _ +2.8 _ +7.9 _ +3.5 _ +2.4

 

Good luck (I think the big battle is for second looking at these forecasts, nobody has enough differential on RodneyS to come anywhere near scoring 400 extra points which is what would be needed). 

[Roger Smith]

Winter Snowfall contest 2020-2021  -- Table of entries

Any other entries welcome, deadline Dec 3 midnight (edits accepted also -- forecast includes any already measured to spring end of season)

(DEN to date 10.0" ORD 0.7" DTW 3.5" BUF 0.8" and BTV 2.7" ) at end of Nov ... updated totals will appear in the table of forecasts below.

 

FORECASTER ______ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BUF __ DEN _ SEA _ BTV

snowfall to Dec 17 ___ Tr __ 10.5 _ 17.3 ___ 0.7 __ 9.2 __ 9.6 ___ 15.1 __ 0.0 __ 8.5

 

wxallannj __________ 21.0 _ 29.0 _ 37.0 __ 43.0 _ 47.0 _ 70.0 __ 51.0 __ 5.2 _ 77.0

Tom _______________ 18.1 _ 29.8 _ 42.5 __ 43.3 _ 44.1 _102.5__ 59.6 __ 4.2 _ 78.3

hudsonvalley21 ____ 16.3 _ 30.4 _ 44.5 __ 39.7 _ 48.2 _ 87.9 __ 61.1 __ 6.8 _ 83.2

Scotty Lightning ____15.0 _ 25.0 _ 40.0 __ 50.0 _ 40.0 _125.0__ 75.0 __ 3.0 _ 90.0

Roger Smith _______ 14.5 _ 28.2 _ 60.5 __ 35.5 _ 39.9 _ 80.5 __ 55.5 _ 12.5 _ 90.5

wxdude64 _________ 13.2 _ 29.7 _ 45.9 __ 41.7 _ 44.2 _ 97.7 __ 73.2 __ 7.1 _ 84.1

RJay ________________8.0 _ 20.0 _ 35.0 __ 40.0 _ 40.0 _ 75.0 __ 65.0 __ 4.0 _ 65.0

Don Sutherland1 ____ 6.0 _ 11.5 _ 28.0 __ 38.5 _ 44.0 _ 87.0 __ 57.5 __ 3.4 _ 72.9

RodneyS ____________ 4.4 __ 8.5 _ 20.0 __ 31.6 _ 38.0 _ 78.9 __ 55.5 __ 5.1 _ 66.6

__ consensus _______14.5 _ 28.2 _ 40.0 __ 40.0 _ 44.1 _ 87.0 __ 59.6 __ 5.1 _ 78.3

_________________________________________________________________________

Table of forecasts for December 2020

FORECASTER ________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

Roger Smith _________ +2.7 _ +2.5 _ +1.8 __ +1.9 _ +1.2 _ +2.8 ___ +7.9 _ +3.5 _ +2.4

BKViking _____________+2.0 _ +2.0 _ +2.2 __ +0.2 _ +0.6 _ +1.0 ___ +2.4 _ +1.9 _ +0.2

Tom _________________ +1.7 _ +1.3 _ +1.4 __ --0.1 _ +0.2 _ +0.8 ___ +1.1 _ +0.9 _ +0.4

RJay _________________+1.5 _ +2.0 _ +2.5 __ +1.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ +3.0 _ +2.0 _ +1.8

hudsonvalley21 ______+1.3 _ +1.6 _ +1.5 __ +1.8 _ +0.2 _ +0.2 ___ +2.1 _ +2.1 _ +2.3

___ Consensus _______+1.2 _ +1.6 _ +1.8 __ +1.1 _ +0.1 _ +0.6 ___ +2.2 _ +1.7 _ +1.0

wxallannj ____________ +1.1 _ +1.9 _ +2.4 __ +1.2 _ --0.7 _ +0.4 ___ +2.2 _ +1.6 _ +1.5

DonSutherland 1 _____+1.0 _ +1.5 _ +1.9 __ +2.3 _ --0.4 _ --0.1 ___ +2.6 _ +1.8 _ +3.0

Scotty Lightning _____ +0.5 _ +0.5 _ +0.5 __ +0.5 _ +1.0 _ +1.5 ___ --0.5 _ +1.0 __ 0.0

RodneyS _____________+0.1 _ +0.9 _ +1.7 __ +2.3 __ 0.0 _ +2.1 ___ --0.6 _ +0.9 _ +0.5

___ Normal ____________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

wxdude64 ____________--0.1 _ +0.2 _ +0.2 __ --0.5 _ --0.9 _ --0.6 ___ +0.8 _ +1.1 _ --0.3

______________________________________________________

Coldest forecasts in blue, Normal is coldest for NYC, BOS, PHX. 

Warmest forecasts in red, a check of the extreme forecast summary (Nov thread) shows that

about half of our warmest forecasts also score highest (one tenth of coldest forecasts do so).

Counting the losses in that table tells me that one tenth of second highest forecasts also score

highest, so going high in general is 60% likely to produce a good score. Timing is everything though.

 

 

 

[Roger Smith]

Tracking anomalies and projections for December ...

 

______________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

11th ___ (10d anom) _ --0.2 _--0.3 _+0.2 ___ +6.0 _--2.4 _--2.1 ___ +8.9 _+2.2 _+4.4

21st ___ (20d anom) _ +0.6 _--0.1 _ --0.9 ___ +5.8 _+0.3 _--1.7 ___+2.0 _+0.2 _+4.9

 

11th ___ (p20d anom)_ --1.5 _--1.5 _--1.5 ___ +2.0 _--1.5 _--1.5 ___ +3.0 __0.0 _+1.0

11th ___ (p26d anom) _ --2.5 _--2.5 _--2.5 ___ 0.0 _ --2.0 _ --2.0 ___ 0.0 __ -1.0 _ 0.0

21st ___ (p31d anom) _ 0.0 __ 0.0 __--1.0 ___+3.0__ 0.0 _ --1.0 ___ +1.0 _+0.5 _+3.0

31st-1st __ finals ______+1.7_ +1.7_ +1.3 ___+5.1 _+0.8 _ +1.0 ____+3.1 _+0.4_+3.8

_____________________________________

(11th) _ The month started out rather cool in the east and quite warm in the west. These trends are reversing briefly, then much colder air is expected to arrive in a few days and persist with a few variations most of the rest of the month. Anomalies seem likely to fall towards negative values where not already there. 

(21st) _ Not quite as cold middle third as expected so anomalies have levelled off a bit higher than forecast. A further change applies to the original p26th as now the days 22nd-24th are looking quite mild in the east. The end of month anomalies will likely not be far from zero at several stations so I set them there, small to medium positives should be retained at ORD, DEN, PHX and SEA. As always DEN will be bouncing up and down with the passage of a strong low (now dumping snow at my place) tomorrow night, a few days of -15 type anomalies to follow a few near +10, then levelling off near normal end of month. Not warm enough to save my overly ambitious call. 

Provisional scoring to follow ...

(31st - 1st Jan 2021) _ slowly but surely assembling the final results, my pace might be a bit more leisurely given the context but would expect to have December scored by noon to 2 p.m. NYD, then on to the final annual results, which as I mentioned in the thread subtitle, looks like a wide open free-for-all as far as 2nd to 5th places go, RodneyS has no doubt locked up the annual contest win, congrats to him. 

Posting final anomalies and estimates of them where not complete, scoring table will eventually conform to them but at any given moment it may not be updated from the earlier provisionals posted. (as of 0615 EST, all anomalies now final).

(BOS having some issues, they posted their Dec CF6 with 31st missing, but that climate report is available, temps look sensible, 90.0" of snow likely some kind of bizarre system failure or the guy from Vermont dumped his load at Logan airport, not sure which). 

 

 

[Roger Smith]

Confirmed scoring for December 2020

Scoring is based on the latest end of month projections listed in the previous post.

ORD raw scores are boosted by "max 60" progression as highest raw scores were 45. Boosted scores have the ^ symbol. Some lower ORD scores are raw scores that were higher than the progression values. 

 

FORECASTER _______DCA_NYC_BOS_east__ORD_ATL_IAH_cent_c/e___DEN_PHX_SEA_west __ TOTAL

 

DonSutherland 1 _____ 86 _ 96 _ 88 __ 270 __ 60^_ 76 _ 78 __ 214 _ 484 __ 90 _ 72 _ 84__ 246 ____ 730

hudsonvalley21 ______ 92 _ 98 _ 96 __ 286 __ 42^_ 88 _ 84 __ 214 _ 500 __ 80 _ 66 _ 70 __ 216 ____ 716

 

___ Consensus _______ 90 _ 98 _ 90 __ 278 __ 33^_ 86 _ 92 __ 211 _ 489 __ 82 _ 74 _ 44 __ 200 ____ 689

 

RJay _________________96 _ 94 _ 76 __ 266 __ 30^_ 84 _80 __ 194 _ 460 __ 98 _68 _ 60 __ 226 ____ 686

BKViking _____________94 _ 94 _ 82 __ 270 __ 18^_ 96_100__ 214 _ 484 __ 86 _ 70 _ 28 __ 184 ____ 668

wxallannj ____________ 88 _ 96 _ 78 __ 262 __ 36^_ 70 _ 88 __ 194 _ 456 __ 82 _ 76 _ 54 __ 212 ____ 668

Tom ________________100 _ 92 _ 98 __ 290 __ 12^_ 88 _ 96 __ 196 _ 486 __ 60 _ 90 _ 32 __ 182 ____ 668

RodneyS _____________68 _ 84 _ 92 __ 244 __ 60^_ 84 _ 78 __ 222 _ 466 __ 26 _ 90 _ 34 __ 150 ____ 616

Scotty Lightning _____ 76 _ 76 _ 84 __ 236 __ 24^_ 96 _ 90 __ 210 _ 446 __ 28 _ 88 _ 24 __ 140 ____ 586

Roger Smith _________ 80 _ 84 _ 90 __ 254 __ 48^_ 92 _ 64 __ 204 _ 466 __ 04 _ 38 _ 72 __ 114 ____ 580

___ Normal __________ 66 _ 66 _ 74 __ 206 __ 08^_ 84 _ 80 __ 172 _ 370 __ 38 _ 92 _ 24 __ 154 ____ 524

wxdude64 ___________ 64 _ 70 _ 78 __ 212 __ 06^_ 66 _ 68 __ 140 _ 344 __ 56 _ 86 _ 14 __ 156 ____ 500

______________________________________________________

EXTREME FORECAST REPORT _ Dec 2020

This has worked out differently from my previous report, maybe you didn't see that anyway, but as of now, with estimates or final values unlikely to change much, these would be the extreme forecast situations ...

DCA, NYC, BOS and IAH did not qualify, our consensus was good at all four locations (BOS high score was third coldest forecast).

ORD and SEA go to warmest forecasts, DonS and RodneyS share ORD, and DonS also wins SEA on his way to high score for the month of December, with hudsonvalley21 close behind. 

PHX (+0.4) is a win by RodneyS and Tom (+0.9), our low forecasts, with Normal also getting a win (higher score than either of those).

(contest forecasters cannot take a loss to normal)

ATL (+0.8) ends up as a win-loss situation, with Scotty Lightning sharing a win (with BKV +0.6) with second highest forecast (+1.0), Roger Smith a loss with +1.2. 

DEN also in the same position with RJay (+3.0) taking a win (result is +3.1), my overly ambitious +7.9 goes for a loss.

-------------------------------------------

These scores are now finalized, as is the annual report. (Things went a lot faster than I expected because several stations came in at my earlier estimates so they didn't need adjustments). 

___________________________________________________

Annual update -- final contest scoring -- will wait for final results here but as I mentioned in the contest announcement post this month, 

RodneyS had a large enough lead that no forecasts submitted could have gained enough points when compared with his forecasts, and

now the results make it appear that the lead will remain about the same. Some movement is likely in the chase pack 2nd to 6th, that will

be the main suspense of the final scoring I think. 

 

 

[Roger Smith]

< < < < < ........ <<<< ---- ====== Annual Scoring (Jan-Dec) 2020 ====== ---- >>>> .......> > > > >

 < < < < < ........ <<<< ---- ====== - - - - - - Final Reports - - - - - - ====== ---- >>>> .......> > > > >

Numbers in red denote highest cumulative scores for each of nine locations. Numbers in bold black type denote highest subtotals for regions. 

These scores are now final ... subject to any adjustments as I check the math.

 

FORECASTER ______________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__ c/e __DEN_PHX_SEA__west ___ TOTAL

 

RodneyS ___________________796_ 830_ 930 __2556 __706 _744_820__2310 __4866 __750_805_802_ 2357 ____7223

Don Sutherland.1 ___________774 _852_886 __2512 __657 _730 _834 __2221 __4733 __616_836_800_ 2252 ____6985

hudsonvalley21 ____________715 _810 _909 __2434 __585 _724 _867 __2176 __4610 __665_838_821_ 2324 ____6934

RJay ______________________ 822 _843 _813 __2478 __622 _756 _789 __2167 __4645 __734_768_778_ 2280 ____6925

___ Consensus _____________720 _784 _911 __2415 __554 _734_880 __2168 __4583 __654_821_798_ 2273 ____ 6856

BKViking __________________ 717 _781 _868 __2266 __567 _689 _853__2109 __4375 __707_842_834_ 2383 ____ 6758

wxallannj __________________750 _852 _891 __2493 __507 _717 _856__2080 __4573 __650_767_752_ 2169 ____ 6742

Tom _______________________727 _762 _877 __2366 __490 _769 _836__2095 __4461 __619_822_731_ 2172 ____ 6633

Scotty Lightning ____________616 _606 _742 __1964 __478 _745_912__2135 __4099 __534_758_758_ 2050 ____ 6149

Roger Smith ________________644 _689 _794 __2127__607 _801 _800__2208 __4335 __ 562_560_602_ 1724 ____6059

wxdude64 __________________587 _631 _744 __1962__457 _626 _834__1917 __3879 __ 582_783_648_ 2013 ____5892

___ Normal _________________480 _498 _638 __1616 __390 _655 _742__1787 __3403 __486_618_ 718_ 1822 ____5225

Brian5671 _ (8/12) _________ 494 _502 _526 __1522 __323 _485 _545__1353 __2875 __318_478_542_ 1438 ____ 4313

JakkelWx _ (7/12) __________ 380 _395 _514 __1289__370 _405 _532__1317 __2606 __390 _422 _330_ 1142 ____3748

yoda _ (4/12) _______________192 _ 227 _200 __ 619 __152_250 _311 __ 713 ___1332 __209 _347_210 __ 766_____2098

rclab _ (1/12) ________________05 __ 00 __ 00 __ 005 __ 00 _ 11 _ 24 ___ 035 ____ 040 ___ 56 _ 88 _ 66 __ 210 _____ 250

dwave _ (1/12) ______________ 72 __ 75 __ 48 __ 195 __ 12 _ 25 _ 10 ___ 047 ____ 242 ___ 16 _ 34 _ 00 __ 050 _____ 292

Maxim _ (1/12) ______________00 __ 00 __ 00 __ 000 __ 00 _ 20 _ 46 ___ 066 ____ 066 ___ 32 _ 50 _ 34 __ 116 _____ 182

Rhino16 _ (1/12) _____________00 __ 05 __ 20 __ 025 __ 00 _ 13 _ 30 ___ 043 ____ 068 ___ 04 _ 52 _ 54 __ 110 _____ 178

==============================================================================

Extreme forecast standings January to December

81 of 108 forecasts so far have qualified for an extreme forecast award for the warmest forecast(s), 57 for warmest and 24 for coldest.

FORECASTER ____ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _ Apr _ May _ Jun __ Jul _ Aug _ Sep _Oct _Nov _Dec ___ Final Standings (Dec subject to adjustments)

Roger Smith ______ ---- __ ---- __ 1-0 __ 4-2 __ 1-0 __ ----- __ ---- __ 4-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-1 _ 6-0 _ 0-2 ___ 17-5

RodneyS _________ 2-0 __ 3-0 __ 0-1 __ ---- __ 2-0 __ 2-0 __ 0-1 __0-1 _ 4-1 _ ---- _ ---- __ 2-0 ___ 15-4

RJay _____________ ----- __ ----- __ 3-0 __ ---- __ ----- __ 1-0 __ 3-0 __ ---- _ 3-0 _ 2-0 _ ---- __ 1-0 ___ 13-0

Brian 5671 _______ 4-0 __ 1-0 __ 3-1 __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ ---- __ 1-1 __ ---- _ ---- _ ---- __ ---- __ ---- ____ 11-2

DonSutherland1___0-0 __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ ---- __ 2-0 __ 2-0 __1-0 _ ---- _ 0-1 _ 2-0 __ 2-0 ___ 12-1

Scotty Lightning __ 2-0 __ 0-0 __ ---- __ 1-0 __----- __ ----- __ 1-0 __1-0 _ 0-1 _ 2-0 _ ---- __ 1-0 ____ 7-1

Normal ___________ 1-0 __ 0-1 __ ---- __ 1-0 __ ---- __ 2-0 __ ---- __ ---- _ 0-1 _ 1-0 _ ---- ___1-0 ____ 6-2

Tom ______________ 1-0 __ 0-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ 1-0 __ ----- __ ---- __ ---- _ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ ---- ___ 1-0 ____5-0

yoda ______________ 0-0 __ 1-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ----- __ ---- __ ---- _ 1-1 _ 2-0 _ ---- ___ ---- ____ 4-1

RClab _____________ 2-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ----- __ ----- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- _ ---- _ ---- ___ ---- ____ 2-0

wxdude64 ________ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ 1-0 __ ---- __ ----- __ ---- __ ---- __ 1-0 _ ---- _ ---- ___ ----- ____ 2-0

Jakkelwx __________ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ 1-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ 1-0 _ ---- _ ---- ___ ----- ____ 2-0

wxallannj __________ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ 1-1 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- _ 1-0 _ ---- ___ ----- ____ 2-1

hudsonvalley21 ____ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ----- __ 1-0 __ ---- __ ---- _ ---- _ ---- ___ ----- ____ 1-0

BKViking ___________ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ----- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- _ ---- _ ---- ___ 1-0 ____ 1-0

================================================================================

 

BEST SCORES -- Totals for January to December

Forecasters are listed in same order as annual points standings. 

Ties are possible which is why some locations have more than total of months best scores, also, if Normal or consensus

achieve a top score, the actual forecaster with high score gets an award also. From Oct to Dec, high scores are always given

among regular annual entrants when "occasional" entrants take high score awards. (* marks these)

 

FORECASTER ____________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA__west___Months

RodneyS _________________ 2 ___ 1 ___ 2 ____ 2 ____ 4 ___ 0 ___ 2 ___ 4 ____ 3 ____ 1 ___ 3 ___ 3 ___ 3 _____ 4 _ Jan, Feb, May, Sep

DonSutherland.1 __________1 ___ 3 ___ 2*____2 ____ 4 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 2 ____ 2*____1 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 3 _____ 3 _ Mar, Apr, Dec

hudsonvalley21 ___________0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 3 ___ 1 ____ 2 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 1*___Oct*

RJay _____________________ 3 ___ 2 ___ 0 ____ 3 ____ 1 ___ 3*___0 ___ 2 ____ 2 ____ 3 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 _____ 2 _ Jun, Jul

___ Consensus ____________0 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0

BKViking _________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 _____ 0

wxallannj _________________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 2*___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 _____ 0

Tom ______________________1 ___ 2 ___ 3 ____ 2 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 1*_____0

Scotty Lightning __________ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___3*___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 2 ___ 2 ___ 2 ___ 1 _____ 0

Roger Smith ______________ 2 ___ 3 ___ 3 ____ 2 ____ 2 ___ 3 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 _____ 2 __ Aug.Nov

wxdude64 ________________0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0

_____ Normal _____________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 2 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 _____ 1 ___ Apr

Brian5671 ________________ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 0 _____ 0

Jakkelwx _________________1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0

Yoda _____________________0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 _____ 1 ___ Oct

RClab ____________________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 _____ 0

____________________________________________________________________________________

* includes one win in this category among regular entrants only (Yoda had higher score).

... this rule only applies in fourth quarter of season. ... not retroactive. 

--------- ----------- ========================================= 00000 ============================ --------- -------

Results are now final but some details could change, check back for final adjusted scoring. 

 

[Roger Smith]

So in the final analysis, RodneyS had things entirely under control, even a perfect forecast from DonS would have fallen a few points short, but Don and hudsonvalley21 gave the leader a good run at the end, moving up more than 100 points (the margin going in was 352 and so RodneyS at 616 just could not be overtaken). RJay was edged out into fourth but also beat consensus. 

Everyone has some sort of a win or else did consistently well, the nine station best scores were quite widely distributed, and so were the extreme forecasts. 

The rest of us can look at our totals and see where it all went wrong, in my case, it would have helped not to be ten thousand points behind around April. I think from May to December I actually had more points than most, but too little too late. Apparently it's the west where I need to improve my game, for wxdude64 it's the opposite, west went okay, east-central not so great in 2020. But we're into a brand new year. I'm sure I can fall off a cliff in a different way every year, working on it. 

Thanks for supporting the contest, I see that everyone regularly on hand here made an appearance in Jan 2021. Now all we need is some winter weather (I should say all you need is some winter weather, I've got lots, 10 inches of snow has fallen here in the past day and a half, still coming down at sunset here). 

[wxdude64]

Thanks to you for putting the time in to allow us to play. I'll try to ride the roller coaster back to the top this year lol!

[RodneyS]

12 hours ago, wxdude64 said:

Thanks to you for putting the time in to allow us to play. I'll try to ride the roller coaster back to the top this year lol!

Yes, thanks very much for all the time that you spend on this each year, Roger. 

[hudsonvalley21]

On 1/2/2021 at 2:39 PM, RodneyS said:

Yes, thanks very much for all the time that you spend on this each year, Roger. 

Totally agree, thank you Rodger and happy New Years to everyone!