November 30-December 2 *Potential* Winter Storm

[Jim Martin]

0z GFS Ensemble.

[Jackstraw]

Kinda crazy how the Canuk is just locked on to the streamer off of Lake Michigan.  None of the other models are nearly as robust.  Will be interesting to see how that pans out.  Also, has the northern stream energy even been sampled yet?

[RogueWaves]

2 hours ago, Powerball said:

00z NAM suggests the bleeding at least may have stopped, as it's inched towards an earlier phase and shifted westward. 

One can hope it's onto a trend.

Last 3 NAM runs:

 

[IllinoisWedges]

 O Boy that LES looks fun. V4 has 1-1.4" of QPF lol 

[Hoosier]

1 minute ago, IllinoisWedges said:

 O Boy that LES looks fun. V4 has 1-1.4" of QPF lol 

Check out the other HRRR.  Cannot recall seeing a streamer firehosed with such definition like that into central/southern Indiana.  Gotta think it's exaggerating.

[Jim Martin]

06z RGEM.

[IWXwx]

As I said last night, I'll take my 2" and like it, but it looks like I'll be waving at LES to my west and the system snow to my east as they pass by.

[nwohweather]

As I said last night, I'll take my 2" and like it, but it looks like I'll be waving at LES to my west and the system snow to my east as they pass by.

Rant incoming.

This map is so infuriating. Clearly IWX shows 6”+ for the Toledo area, yet CLE has them around 2-4” as do the local Toledo mets.

It’s like the local people in Toledo are obsessed with American models, so when the Euro consistently shows an amount on either side of the coin they don’t cling to it until 12 hours before

[Gino27]

48 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

Rant incoming.

This map is so infuriating. Clearly IWX shows 6”+ for the Toledo area, yet CLE has them around 2-4” as do the local Toledo mets.

It’s like the local people in Toledo are obsessed with American models, so when the Euro consistently shows an amount on either side of the coin they don’t cling to it until 12 hours before

The difference between the offices is pretty astonishing.

ILN put this "all of ohio" map out this morning, which is usually a mashup of ILN, IWX, RLX, PBZ and CLE. However, it's really obvious that

IWX and CLE have much higher amounts for areas like Findlay and Toledo, along with slightly higher down towards Columbus. I'm sure they will iron these out today, but it's odd to see one office suggesting winter storm watches for an area while one county over an office think 3" max.

[nwohweather]

The difference between the offices is pretty astonishing.

ILN put this "all of ohio" map out this morning, which is usually a mashup of ILN, IWX, RLX, PBZ and CLE. However, it's really obvious that everyone but IWX and CLE have much higher amounts for areas like Findlay and Toledo, along with slightly higher down towards Columbus. I'm sure they will iron these out today, but it's odd to see one office suggesting winter storm watches for an area while one county over an office think 3" max.

Well Cleveland is very Cleveland-centric in their forecasts and it shows unfortunately. I think 5-8” is a slam dunk for the Toledo area at this time

[Frog Town]

Just now, nwohweather said:

Well Cleveland is very Cleveland-centric in their forecasts and it shows unfortunately. I think 5-8” is a slam dunk for the Toledo area at this time

After living in Toledo for 45 years, I would agree with this statement whole heartedly.  I've seen AFD spend 95% of the write up talking about a 10 square mile area of the region numerous times. 

[snowcaine]

9 hours ago, Jackstraw said:

Kinda crazy how the Canuk is just locked on to the streamer off of Lake Michigan.  None of the other models are nearly as robust.  Will be interesting to see how that pans out.  Also, has the northern stream energy even been sampled yet?

The Buffalo NWS office has said that they like the Canadian model suite best for lake effect snow guidance in general

[IWXwx]

59 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

Rant incoming.

This map is so infuriating. Clearly IWX shows 6”+ for the Toledo area, yet CLE has them around 2-4” as do the local Toledo mets.

It’s like the local people in Toledo are obsessed with American models, so when the Euro consistently shows an amount on either side of the coin they don’t cling to it until 12 hours before

 

15 minutes ago, Gino27 said:

The difference between the offices is pretty astonishing.

 

ILN put this "all of ohio" map out this morning, which is usually a mashup of ILN, IWX, RLX, PBZ and CLE. However, it's really obvious that

IWX and CLE have much higher amounts for areas like Findlay and Toledo, along with slightly higher down towards Columbus. I'm sure they will iron these out today, but it's odd to see one office suggesting winter storm watches for an area while one county over an office think 3" max.

 

10 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

Well Cleveland is very Cleveland-centric in their forecasts and it shows unfortunately. I think 5-8” is a slam dunk for the Toledo area at this time

 

7 minutes ago, Frog Town said:

After living in Toledo for 45 years, I would agree with this statement whole heartedly.  I've seen AFD spend 95% of the write up talking about a 10 square mile area of the region numerous times. 

I pulled this from IWX's AFD this morning. I read it to mean that after collaboration, they couldn't come to an agreement on totals, so IWX said screw it, we'll let day shift handle it.

SYSTEM SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED OVER NORTHWEST OHIO INTO NORTHEAST
INDIANA. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
LIMA AREA. AFTER COORDINATION WITH OHIO OFFICES, HAVE DEFERRED ANY
HEADLINES FOR THE UPCOMING DAY SHIFT. 

[nwohweather]

I pulled this from IWX's AFD this morning. I read it to mean that after collaboration, they couldn't come to an agreement on totals, so IWX said screw it, we'll let day shift handle it.

SYSTEM SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED OVER NORTHWEST OHIO INTO NORTHEASTINDIANA. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY OVER THELIMA AREA. AFTER COORDINATION WITH OHIO OFFICES, HAVE DEFERRED ANYHEADLINES FOR THE UPCOMING DAY SHIFT. 

Hard to collaborate with people who don’t have complete focus.

I won’t lie some of the responses from the Toledo meteorologists are disappointing as well. WTOL’s number two guy said “enough to cover the grass”.

I know I don’t have a degree in meteorology but so many signs point to a 5-8” for most of the area with higher totals possible to the East. It’s hard to believe being in the deformation band of such a dynamic storm with ample cold on the backside will struggle with warmth from the lake or mid levels

[michsnowfreak]

Looks like a nice snowy start to December in eastern MI but it can't go much further east or it won't be lol.

[BigHoss48192]

13 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Looks like a nice snowy start to December in eastern MI but it can't go much further east or it won't be lol.

Don’t worry, Josh, SE Wayne County always gets screwed.  We’ll probably end up with nothing or just a dusting.

[nwohweather]

After living in Toledo for 45 years, I would agree with this statement whole heartedly.  I've seen AFD spend 95% of the write up talking about a 10 square mile area of the region numerous times. 

Well it’s why me and another guy who got a Met degree that I golfed with locally made a weather blog back in the day that used to have thousands of views during storms.

It was crazy because you’d look at guidance, use past knowledge, and AFD’s from local offices to make decisions. But the disco’s from IWX often drove opinions because it was more robust and made good points.

Figured I’d bring it back since I’m not in college anymore and have more free time.

[purduewx80]

Seeing a fair number of hi-res models showing double digit totals now in LaPorte Co, IN and Berrien Co, MI. After having seen some BUFKIT profiles accounting for lake temps in the mid-40s, I tend to believe some 12"+ totals will occur just inland from the lake, with the heavy snow band possibly touching several counties farther inland for a time. The DGZ is thoroughly tapped and saturated, so some 1-3"/hr rates are possible E of Valpo and W of S Bend as a singular band becomes more likely Mon night.

HRRRx even gets an inch or so into downtown Chicago (ratios unlikely to be greater than 10:1 except in dominant LE bands and will likely be lower outside of them or immediately along the shore).

[sbnwx85]

23 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

Seeing a fair number of hi-res models showing double digit totals now in LaPorte Co, IN and Berrien Co, MI. After having seen some BUFKIT profiles accounting for lake temps in the mid-40s, I tend to believe some 12"+ totals will occur just inland from the lake, with the heavy snow band possibly touching several counties farther inland for a time. The DGZ is thoroughly tapped and saturated, so some 1-3"/hr rates are possible E of Valpo and W of S Bend as a singular band becomes more likely Mon night.

HRRRx even gets an inch or so into downtown Chicago (ratios unlikely to be greater than 10:1 except in dominant LE bands and will likely be lower outside of them or immediately along the shore).

If that verifies, the band remains stationary and wind gusts are frequently over 35 mph a Blizzard Warning may eventually get posted for LaPorte and Berrien Counties. The current Winter Storm Watch wording includes wind gusts over 40 mph. 

[michsnowfreak]

58 minutes ago, BigHoss48192 said:

Don’t worry, Josh, SE Wayne County always gets screwed.  We’ll probably end up with nothing or just a dusting.

Nah, it just depends on the system. the east side has actually done better than northwest the last several snowfalls. it's clear with this one that the farther east you are the better. 

[purduewx80]

5 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

If that verifies, the band remains stationary and wind gusts are frequently over 35 mph a Blizzard Warning may eventually get posted for LaPorte and Berrien Counties. The current Winter Storm Watch wording includes wind gusts over 40 mph. 

Yep. Prolly gonna shut down 80/90/94 tomorrow night. 

[Winter Man]

I'm off work tomorrow, some OBS may be in my future.

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, purduewx80 said:

Seeing a fair number of hi-res models showing double digit totals now in LaPorte Co, IN and Berrien Co, MI. After having seen some BUFKIT profiles accounting for lake temps in the mid-40s, I tend to believe some 12"+ totals will occur just inland from the lake, with the heavy snow band possibly touching several counties farther inland for a time. The DGZ is thoroughly tapped and saturated, so some 1-3"/hr rates are possible E of Valpo and W of S Bend as a singular band becomes more likely Mon night.

HRRRx even gets an inch or so into downtown Chicago (ratios unlikely to be greater than 10:1 except in dominant LE bands and will likely be lower outside of them or immediately along the shore).

There does seem to be better co-location of lift in the DGZ.  Still not ideal, with the best omega below the growth zone, but better.

At this point, I'd feel fairly confident going with 6-10" in the highest impacted areas.  Conceivably could go higher, but how long this multi-banded setup persists has me a little cautious for now.

[Hoosier]

Rough times for the shoreline

 

Lakeshore Hazard Message
National Weather Service Chicago IL
942 AM CST Sun Nov 29 2020

INZ001-002-292345-
/O.CON.KLOT.LS.W.0009.201130T0600Z-201201T1800Z/
Lake IN-Porter-
942 AM CST Sun Nov 29 2020

...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT TO NOON CST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Significant lakeshore flooding and shoreline erosion
  expected due to large waves of 13 to 17 feet and high lake
  levels.

* WHERE...Lake IN and Porter Counties.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to noon CST Tuesday. The worst
  conditions are expected Monday and Monday evening.

* IMPACTS...Numerous roads closed and low lying property
  including parking lots, lawns, and homes and businesses will
  be inundated near the lake. Some shoreline erosion will occur.

* IMPACTS...The large waves combined with high lake levels will
  exacerbate beach and shoreline erosion. Additionally, a one foot
  increase in the water levels is possible along river mouths,
  canals, and ports along Lake Michigan. Low-lying property
  including parking lots, parks, paths, lawns, and structures
  along the immediate lakeshore will likely be inundated. Numerous
  road closures are possible. This includes East Lake Front Drive
  in the Beverly Hills area. Stay dry when waves are high!

[Brian D]

The "Fallness of 2020" continues as I posted in my "holiday forecast" post. The crazy ups and downs. Love it.

Enjoy it guys!!

 

 

[Hoosier]

Cleveland area gets it good on the Euro.

[Frog Town]

Does it stretch back towards Toledo? 

[CoachLB]

2 minutes ago, Frog Town said:

Does it stretch back towards Toledo? 

Look like 4-8 at 10:1

[Frog Town]

Thank you Coach LB. 

I feel like 4" seems to be the consensus  on the Western edge of this one.  Unless it ends up more amped and slightly less progressive.  Euro seems to be the only model that is holding serve right now.  

[ILSNOW]

this is correct map. Thanks Hoosier