November 30-December 2 *Potential* Winter Storm

[Hoosier]

May have to dig into the lake effect setup locally if the storm misses east.  Looks like there could be a period of favorable fetch.

[RobertSul]

6 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

May have to dig into the lake effect setup locally if the storm misses east.  Looks like there could be a period of favorable fetch.

[Powerball]

10 hours ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Baby stepping towards the inevitable strung out garbage 

You can't fight fate.

[purduewx80]

7 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

May have to dig into the lake effect setup locally if the storm misses east.  Looks like there could be a period of favorable fetch.

Looks pretty meh on the soundings. Inversion heights don’t appear to be deep enough to tap into the good snow growth region w any cold air limited in depth and time (even off Superior). 

[Frog Town]

For the western Ohio Crew that seems to always either be too far east or too far west, this is your set up IF it can materialize.  12Z is in your favor!

[Hoosier]

26 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

Looks pretty meh on the soundings. Inversion heights don’t appear to be deep enough to tap into the good snow growth region w any cold air limited in depth and time (even off Superior). 

Thanks, you did the work for me.   

So I guess the long fetch would be the most favorable factor?  

[Gino27]

Euro is much more progressive and doesn't occlude.

[Stebo]

The Euro this run is too progressive and the trough never stalls out. The ridge ahead of it is too weak. If this is a trend starting this is going to be a massive bust.

[Hoosier]

Everyone wants the big storm of course but perspective is key.  A zone of 3-6" in the OV just as the calendar turns to December would be respectable.

[sbnwx85]

11 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Everyone wants the big storm of course but perspective is key.  A zone of 3-6" in the OV just as the calendar turns to December would be respectable.

[MIstorm97]

Old habits die hard

last winter was missed phase after missed phase. Why change that now

[Hoosier]

12 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

As an example, the average date of the first 3" snow in Columbus, OH is not til around New Years.

[blizzardof96]

12z CMC Ensemble

[CARDSWEATHER]

12Z individual members of the ECMWF are pretty bleak. A few good hits for the form sure, however many more east members out of the sub forum or no snow at all. 

[Gino27]

3 minutes ago, CARDSWEATHER said:

12Z individual members of the ECMWF are pretty bleak. A few good hits for the form sure, however many more east members out of the sub forum or no snow at all. 

There’s always been some that look like that. I wouldn’t be liking these looks if I were in IN or western OH. 

[Hoosier]

Can someone post the EPS images?

[blizzardof96]

2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Can someone post the EPS images?

[CARDSWEATHER]

4 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Can someone post the EPS images?

Through 8 PM Tuesday. 

 

 

[Hoosier]

Member #49 must be a wrapped up son of a gun.

[blizzardof96]

For those curious, these are the >3” probs from the other two ensemble suites.

12z GEFS

12z GEPS

[mississaugasnow]

Just now, blizzardof96 said:

For those curious, these are the >3” probs from the other two ensemble suites.

12z GEFS

12z GEPS

I haven't seen you post in a while. Congrats on the job at the weather network. Someone get this man a met tag haha. 

[Go Kart Mozart]

A lot of downerism here.  You guys are still very much in the ballgame.  I was in SBN for the 78 super-bomb.  This set-up is similar but lacking the arctic blast.  I am rooting for you!

[blizzardof96]

19 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said:

I haven't seen you post in a while. Congrats on the job at the weather network. Someone get this man a met tag haha. 

Thank you. Nice to be back... hope to chime in from time to time this winter.

[Snowstorms]

Just now, blizzardof96 said:

Thank you. Nice to be back... hope to chime in from time to time this winter.

Always appreciate your thoughts and posts when you do get the chance to come here. And congrats on joining TWN. 

This storm has a lot of moving parts and variables to reach a concrete conclusion until Friday night at the earliest in my opinion. 

[Hoosier]

IWX discussion.  Lol @ the first paragraph

 

The social media rumblings are gradually turning to a roar regarding
the snow potential Monday through perhaps Wednesday. This event is
far from a slam dunk. Regardless of the track of the surface low
that has everyone`s attention, there is also a notable lake effect
snow threat.

The previous three GFS runs (12z Today included) show a closed
low at 500 mb over southern Illinois (18z Monday), and a surface
low near Pittsburgh. The 12Z ECMWF upper-level pattern is a touch
farther east and less of a closed low at 500 mb. However, the
surface lows are in similar locations. Go back three runs and the
solutions are somewhat steady. However, add an additional 3-4
model runs and the solutions are erratic. I mention this because I
would like to see even more run to run consistency. Tracing the
northern stream 500-mb jet, this feature should arrive onshore of
British Columbia on Friday afternoon. This *should* improve the
modeling of this feature in subsequent runs, and therefore improve
the confidence in the forecast track.

Turning briefly to ensemble clusters (00z Thursday runs), the
overall shape of the 500- mb pattern for the eastern 2/3 of the
CONUS are similar. However, there continues to be a lot of noise
within these patterns. That is, while there may be a 500-mb low
located in our neighborhood, its placement amongst the members
varies notably. This decreases forecast confidence.

[Snownado]

I bet meteorologists absolutely hate social media.

[Stebo]

3 minutes ago, Snownado said:

I bet meteorologists absolutely hate social media.

Easiest money bet made.

[purduewx80]

2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Thanks, you did the work for me.   

So I guess the long fetch would be the most favorable factor?  

yep, exactly. plenty of moisture and a favorable upper pattern in play, but this wouldn't be the fluffy variety that stacks up like we see later in actual winter. the more easterly solution would probably decrease the fetch and result in a more NW'rly flow snowbelt pattern. 

[Jim Martin]

The latest from the National Weather Service in Northern Indiana.

[Hoosier]

50 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

yep, exactly. plenty of moisture and a favorable upper pattern in play, but this wouldn't be the fluffy variety that stacks up like we see later in actual winter. the more easterly solution would probably decrease the fetch and result in a more NW'rly flow snowbelt pattern. 

I did look at it a bit, and yes, it would not be your classic colder LES event.  The thermodynamics are mediocre, but the duration and at least potential for a very long fetch could still result in some pretty decent amounts somewhere imo.  And likely to spread well inland given the robust low level flow.