Gino27 Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 5 hours ago, nwohweather said: Makes you wonder if some places will be issued Blizzard Warnings. At the heart of the storm in that main band consistent 30-35 mph seems attainable with heavy snow Our offices around here tend to be extremely conservative in regards to blizzard warnings. Big storm in January 2019 had conditions like what is expected for over 6 hours and ILN just did a WSW and mentioned blizzard conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 NWS offices are very strict in meeting the criteria for issuing a blizzard warning. I feel that is a good thing, unlike their Special Weather Statements, which they throw out like candy during a parade. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 For what it's worth, the NAM is a bit more amped and west. Perhaps caving to the Euro and Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 I often wonder if it would be more fun or less fun to be a weather weenie in the days before we had access to all the weather models? I mean, an extended model shows a massive storm and you only get 7" of snow your "disappointed" . A model shows nothing, maybe a disturbance to your south, and you get 3" of unexpected snow, you're "excited". 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownado Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 Kinda sad when there's a winter storm moving in and there's 2 hours + between posts. Even the TN Valley forum is getting more activity and they won't see as much snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 28, 2020 Author Share Posted November 28, 2020 20 hours ago, Hoosier said: A bit on the early side to feel confident in snow amounts, but my early thought is 3-6" downwind of southern Lake Michigan... primarily LES as it appears most of the system snow will pass south/east. If it were colder/another time of year, I'd be going with over 6" without thinking twice, but there are concerns with surface temps and the DGZ being very mismatched from the omega, which means flake size does not look ideal. The fetch is phenomenal, with a connection to Lake Superior, which goes on for many hours. Delta T and equilibrium heights are sort of middle of the road, so I don't see it as an event that will produce extreme rates, but certainly could be fairly heavy at times. Highest amounts may occur more inland than usual due to the combination of a pronounced marine influence and strong low level flow. Finally, an impactful wave/erosion event also looks likely along southern Lake Michigan with a long duration of 40-50 mph gusts, and this may end up being a bigger story than the snow for the shoreline area. IWX going with 3-6" makes me feel good about my call. I know there are decision trees and those types of methods to employ for LES, but after living around the area for so long, I sort of go based on feel after weighing the parameters/overall setup. Even so, LES can still easily humble. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 28, 2020 Author Share Posted November 28, 2020 12 minutes ago, Snownado said: Kinda sad when there's a winter storm moving in and there's 2 hours + between posts. Even the TN Valley forum is getting more activity and they won't see as much snow. Somebody stole a bunch of Ohio posters. At least that's my story and I'm stickin to it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 7 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Somebody stole a bunch of Ohio posters. At least that's my story and I'm stickin to it. I’m still here. Haha other than 70 and sunny there isn’t a lot of forecasting to do here. Actually only supposed to be 52° on Tuesday! May actually have to run my furnace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownado Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 Just now, nwohweather said: I’m still here. Haha other than 70 and sunny there isn’t a lot of forecasting to do here. Actually only supposed to be 52° on Tuesday! May actually have to run my furnace have the leaves even changed color there yet ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 Once again, the 12z Canadian has a more phased storm and has 7-10" of snow for western Ohio. I am starting to wonder which group will win the model-wars-- progressive vs deeper and more phased. It will have a lot of impact on my family members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vpbob21 Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 9 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Somebody stole a bunch of Ohio posters. At least that's my story and I'm stickin to it. We're all standing at the edge of the cliff waiting for the 12z Euro to tell us it's time to jump ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fyrfyter Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 Euro is weaker and phase is late. Much lighter accumulations for much of Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 I'm taking my streamer and running with it 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vpbob21 Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, fyrfyter said: Euro is weaker and phase is late. Much lighter accumulations for much of Ohio. I'll take the under on that 9.5" that map shows for me. My feeling is that areas near the lake will be lucky to see anything measurable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fyrfyter Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 Just now, vpbob21 said: I'll take the under on that 9.5" that map shows for me. My feeling is that areas near the lake will be lucky to see anything measurable. Maybe better luck with the lake enhancement on Tuesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 Good luck, pulling hard for you. Will watch from K.C. area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 I'm caught in no man's land. Just a little too far west of the synoptic good stuff and too far east for the impressive LES band. Although I'm not dispirited because we will still get some snow and I would only need a 20-30 mile west shift of synoptic snow (at least per the Euro) to get a significant snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, IWXwx said: I'm caught in no man's land. Just a little too far west of the synoptic good stuff and too far east for the impressive LES band. Although I'm not dispirited because we will still get some snow and I would only need a 20-30 west shift of synoptic snow (at least per the Euro) to get a significant snow. The follow up storm is yours and areas further west 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownado Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 5 minutes ago, IWXwx said: I'm caught in no man's land. Just a little too far west of the synoptic good stuff and too far east for the impressive LES band. Although I'm not dispirited because we will still get some snow and I would only need a 20-30 west shift of synoptic snow (at least per the Euro) to get a significant snow. I mean the Euro shows like 4" for Fort Wayne. Aren't you close to there ? To me anything more than 3" is significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 have the leaves even changed color there yet ?Yeah most have fallen. I’d say 75% of trees are pine or palm so you don’t see much of this anyways. They just kinda fall here, not much changing of the leaves. Props to my alma mater Bowling Green, nice shot of snow here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vpbob21 Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 18 minutes ago, fyrfyter said: Maybe better luck with the lake enhancement on Tuesday? Maybe but I'm not really optimistic. With temperatures as borderline as what's being modeled any wind passing over the lake is probably going to screw the shoreline. I can see myself looking at bare ground while 5 miles inland gets 6-10". Maybe not as brutal as the 12/1/74 storm where amounts went from 1" to 20" across 5 miles (naturally I was on the 1" end) but still a heartbreaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 Just wondering if headlines will be forthcoming in the next 24-36 hours for NW Ohio. By looking at the 12z model guidance, suspect those headlines will come. Just thinking out loud. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 1 hour ago, Snownado said: Kinda sad when there's a winter storm moving in and there's 2 hours + between posts. Even the TN Valley forum is getting more activity and they won't see as much snow. It's all relative. Down south, they get thrilled about seeing any amount of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownado Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 Just now, Powerball said: It's all relative. Down south, they get thrilled about seeing any amount of snow. But even in places in the mid atlantic, they get excited over just a little snow.... Seems like in the midwest it takes more for people to get excited. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 41 minutes ago, Solution Man said: The follow up storm is yours and areas further west Doesn't look like N IL gets anything from either storm. Super depressing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 Greetings all, I’m thinking of driving up from the Atlanta area for Sunday-Tuesday and getting a cheap hotel somewhere in West/SW Ohio to see some flakes fall. Working from home for now so that allows me to go anywhere there is WiFi. Knowing quite literally nothing about Ohio - any tips on good spots that typically do well in these changeover setups? I was looking for somewhere around Dayton since it’s a bit shorter drive but willing to go anywhere. Bellafontaine caught my eye cause it sounds more elevated. EURO backed off a little bit but still a good thump (especially by Atlanta standards ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 Just now, Snownado said: But even in places in the mid atlantic, they get excited over just a little snow.... Seems like in the midwest it takes more for people to get excited. It's true. Even the Mid-Atlantic can go several years without seeing much (if any snow), and then they get hit with those massive Nor'easters. Seeing 1-3" or even 3-6" of snow is pretty "meh" for much of the Midwest since it happens frequently. It's when you get the double digit amounts that excitement levels shoot through the roof. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 12z GFS: 12z NAM: 12z Euro: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownado Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 3 minutes ago, jrips27 said: Greetings all, I’m thinking of driving up from the Atlanta area for Sunday-Tuesday and getting a cheap hotel somewhere in West/SW Ohio to see some flakes fall. Working from home for now so that allows me to go anywhere there is WiFi. Knowing quite literally nothing about Ohio - any tips on good spots that typically do well in these changeover setups? I was looking for somewhere around Dayton since it’s a bit shorter drive but willing to go anywhere. Bellafontaine caught my eye cause it sounds more elevated. EURO backed off a little bit but still a good thump (especially by Atlanta standards ) I know Dayton would be closer but you may want to consider going just a little further north. Maybe Lima. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vpbob21 Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 7 minutes ago, jrips27 said: Greetings all, I’m thinking of driving up from the Atlanta area for Sunday-Tuesday and getting a cheap hotel somewhere in West/SW Ohio to see some flakes fall. Working from home for now so that allows me to go anywhere there is WiFi. Knowing quite literally nothing about Ohio - any tips on good spots that typically do well in these changeover setups? I was looking for somewhere around Dayton since it’s a bit shorter drive but willing to go anywhere. Bellafontaine caught my eye cause it sounds more elevated. EURO backed off a little bit but still a good thump (especially by Atlanta standards ) Yeah I think Bellefontaine would be a great place to be in this setup. I think that area was the jackpot zone when Sandy came through here a few years ago. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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