Hoosier Posted November 27, 2020 Author Share Posted November 27, 2020 Re: the Euro, there has definitely been a more progressive trend overall. Here are the past several 00z and 12z runs, valid at 00z Dec 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted November 27, 2020 Share Posted November 27, 2020 1 hour ago, Gino27 said: Euro progressive and west. Not good for me at all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted November 27, 2020 Share Posted November 27, 2020 been awhile since we've seen something like this. Good sign for the upcoming winter...me thinks, 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohio Weather with Panda Posted November 27, 2020 Share Posted November 27, 2020 I 30 minutes ago, Baum said: been awhile since we've seen something like this. Good sign for the upcoming winter...me thinks, I sure hope not. I don’t want to see big storms 4 days out that fall apart overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted November 27, 2020 Share Posted November 27, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ohio Weather with Panda said: I I sure hope not. I don’t want to see big storms 4 days out that fall apart overnight I was referring to a gulf low moving north/northeast along or just west of the Appalachians. Irregardless, of folks who hinge on every model run. From what I can tell at this distance a good chunk of Ohio stands to get a decent early season snowfall. Seems rare to me. Not every storm is going to be the blizzard of'78. But if you don't want it blow it back my way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted November 27, 2020 Share Posted November 27, 2020 ILN calling for "moderate accumulation" for everyone NW of I-71, but not ruling out a slower system with significantly higher amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 27, 2020 Share Posted November 27, 2020 35 minutes ago, Baum said: I was referring to a gulf low moving north/northeast along or just west of the Appalachians. Irregardless, of folks who hinge on every model run. From what I can tell at this distance a good chunk of Ohio stands to get a decent early season snowfall. Seems rare to me. Not every storm is going to be the blizzard of'78. But if you don't want it blow it back my way. computer guidance is near unanimous with showing above avg precip this winter following that general track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted November 27, 2020 Share Posted November 27, 2020 12Z NAM showing a slightly more phased solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted November 27, 2020 Share Posted November 27, 2020 12Z NAM showing a slightly more phased solution. I still have my doubts on it not going west of Toledo. So rare to see strong lows not cut up towards Fort Wayne with big snows for Chicago and Milwaukee this early in the season. I cannot remember in my life an “app runner” in November. Maybe 2002? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2012 Posted November 27, 2020 Share Posted November 27, 2020 1 minute ago, nwohweather said: I still have my doubts on it not going west of Toledo. So rare to see strong lows not cut up towards Fort Wayne with big snows for Chicago and Milwaukee this early in the season. I cannot remember in my life an “app runner” in November. Maybe 2002? November 2-3 1967... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 27, 2020 Share Posted November 27, 2020 1 minute ago, nwohweather said: I still have my doubts on it not going west of Toledo. So rare to see strong lows not cut up towards Fort Wayne with big snows for Chicago and Milwaukee this early in the season. I cannot remember in my life an “app runner” in November. Maybe 2002? They have been plenty of apps runners in November. They were just glorified cold rain storms. That said, I'm hedging my bets on the near-miss phase and strung out POS to the east. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 27, 2020 Share Posted November 27, 2020 22 minutes ago, chuckster2012 said: November 2-3 1967... it was 1966 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2012 Posted November 27, 2020 Share Posted November 27, 2020 10 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: it was 1966 Yeah, you're right. I don't know why I put '67. I was in high school that year. Got off school. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted November 27, 2020 Share Posted November 27, 2020 Looking like a rainer. No real Arctic air and late phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted November 27, 2020 Share Posted November 27, 2020 12z GFS Ensemble liking western Ohio for quite a bit of snowfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted November 27, 2020 Share Posted November 27, 2020 50 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: Looking like a rainer. No real Arctic air and late phase. Happy that you guys in most of the GTA snuck in that legit snowstorm. Poor lakeshore and Hamilton/Niagara haha. Since I only got 3" followed by rain my expectations are still very low haha. Im still content with 2-4" and would classify that as a big win for my backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 27, 2020 Share Posted November 27, 2020 12z UK is a progressive dud. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 27, 2020 Author Share Posted November 27, 2020 The one that wasn't posted is the Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted November 27, 2020 Share Posted November 27, 2020 12z Euro from today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted November 27, 2020 Share Posted November 27, 2020 9 minutes ago, Hoosier said: The one that wasn't posted is the Canadian. Which, for what its worth, was not as progressive with the southern piece. Sfc low in still in E KY at 72h compared to WV region on GFS/Euro. Heck of a thump in west central OH with that one. Find this setup very interesting, early season Apps Runners are not something I am well acquainted with. Seems like the northern stream piece has been stout and consistent enough that getting at least SOME snow here imby seems likely. However, phasing systems have not been kind as of the last couple years, so I'm hesitant to buy the hype overall. Sat/Sun are going to be very revealing especially as all the pieces get sampled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted November 27, 2020 Share Posted November 27, 2020 1 hour ago, hawkeye_wx said: 12z UK is a progressive dud. sign me up for this haha. 3-6" in my neck of the woods Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted November 27, 2020 Share Posted November 27, 2020 2 hours ago, Snowstorms said: Looking like a rainer. No real Arctic air and late phase. Agreed, just not enough cold air in place ahead of this thing, even with a big phase. Same system in January would be something... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted November 27, 2020 Share Posted November 27, 2020 Noticing 10:1 is coming in with lower amounts than kuchera. Not sure which is the best bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted November 27, 2020 Share Posted November 27, 2020 1 hour ago, harrisale said: Agreed, just not enough cold air in place ahead of this thing, even with a big phase. Same system in January would be something... Phase happens later and the flow is too progressive for anything respectable at least for us. Snow line is to far north. Track is ideal on all 12z runs, expect UKMET, but lack of cold air means primarily rain. I'd be disappointed if this was in January but its only November. Still got time, nothing concrete yet, so let’s wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 27, 2020 Author Share Posted November 27, 2020 A bit on the early side to feel confident in snow amounts, but my early thought is 3-6" downwind of southern Lake Michigan... primarily LES as it appears most of the system snow will pass south/east. If it were colder/another time of year, I'd be going with over 6" without thinking twice, but there are concerns with surface temps and the DGZ being very mismatched from the omega, which means flake size does not look ideal. The fetch is phenomenal, with a connection to Lake Superior, which goes on for many hours. Delta T and equilibrium heights are sort of middle of the road, so I don't see it as an event that will produce extreme rates, but certainly could be fairly heavy at times. Highest amounts may occur more inland than usual due to the combination of a pronounced marine influence and strong low level flow. Finally, an impactful wave/erosion event also looks likely along southern Lake Michigan with a long duration of 40-50 mph gusts, and this may end up being a bigger story than the snow for the shoreline area. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownado Posted November 27, 2020 Share Posted November 27, 2020 NWS says 2" for Fort Wayne. Seems a little conservative doesn't it ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownado Posted November 27, 2020 Share Posted November 27, 2020 Accuweather says blizzard conditions possible, with some areas having wind gusts up to 70 mph ! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted November 27, 2020 Share Posted November 27, 2020 GFS Ensemble 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 27, 2020 Share Posted November 27, 2020 18Z GFS and ensembles just a smidge west 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 27, 2020 Share Posted November 27, 2020 3 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: 18Z GFS and ensembles just a smidge west Yeah it stopped the bleeding of the 12z run at the very least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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