The Florida Winter Thread

[turtlehurricane]

22 hours ago, FLweather said:

Looking at 12z nam, gfs, cmc. All pretty much in agreement.  Looks like the best chance of convection will be around Lake Okeechobee and south as the SWs dig and surface low blossoms over the Atlantic waters Sunday Night into Monday. 

 

Should remain relatively dry then, maybe a few windshield showers/mist.

 

 

Yeah, NWS Miami makes it sound like this will be a real heavy rain event in South Florida. We will see. Interesting looking formations over the Gulf already though https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-gulf-01-24-0-25-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Really looking forward to the frontal passage on Monday. It's gotten warm here again with highs in the 80s everyday. Looks like highs in the 60s and lows in the 50s/40s after the front, which will feel amazing. 

[FLweather]

37 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said:

Yeah, NWS Miami makes it sound like this will be a real heavy rain event in South Florida. We will see. Interesting looking formations over the Gulf already though https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-gulf-01-24-0-25-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Really looking forward to the frontal passage on Monday. It's gotten warm here again with highs in the 80s everyday. Looks like highs in the 60s and lows in the 50s/40s after the front, which will feel amazing. 

You can definitely spot the warm front boundary and appears to be a bit of a surface low across the southern Gulf.

 

The HRRR brings light rain starting around 11. Even a line of elevated convection around 1am here. So it's got some ground to cover. 

Supposed to get up to 66 tomorrow before falling.  Supposed to stay cloudy pretty all day too.  We'll see how that works out. 

Looks loud and thundering for you over night early morning. 

[turtlehurricane]

3 hours ago, FLweather said:

You can definitely spot the warm front boundary and appears to be a bit of a surface low across the southern Gulf.

 

The HRRR brings light rain starting around 11. Even a line of elevated convection around 1am here. So it's got some ground to cover. 

Supposed to get up to 66 tomorrow before falling.  Supposed to stay cloudy pretty all day too.  We'll see how that works out. 

Looks loud and thundering for you over night early morning. 

The NWS Miami discussion is piquing my interest, they make it seem like this will really be a severe event. I've seen plenty of these severe events, in-fact most of them, end up underwhelming, but once in awhile they meet expectations. Definitely something fun to watch either way. 

.Mesoscale Discussion...

A mid/upper-level low over TX will deamplify into an open wave
today, as it phases with an additional mid-level impulse diving
southward into the middle Mississippi Valley. This evolution of the
mid/upper-level flow pattern will support the development of a long-
wave trough over the eastern states, and broad/enhanced mid-level
cyclonic flow increasing across the South Florida CWA into the
evening/overnight hours.

As the large-scale pattern continues to consolidate today, an upper-
level jet streak will develop over the SE CONUS -- providing upper-
level divergence and weak forcing for ascent across the region. At
the surface, a remnant quasi-stationary frontal boundary is evident
via the latest RAP mesoscale analysis -- extending from the southern
Gulf of Mexico eastward across portions of South Florida. South of
this surface boundary, rich boundary layer moisture is evident
(characterized by dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s). As the
above mentioned enhanced mid/upper-level cyclonic flow increases
over the area, a weak frontal wave/surface low should develop over
the eastern Gulf of Mexico (along the quasi-stationary surface
boundary).

As the frontal wave develops, the aforementioned rich boundary layer
moisture will gradually spread northward across South Florida,
coincident with weak WAA and associated isentropic ascent over the
boundary. In addition, the latest high resolution model guidance
depicts the development of a southwesterly low-level jet across
South Florida, further enhancing mesoscale ascent, moisture
advection, and vertical shear profiles across South Florida.

All of the above mentioned factors will introduce a risk of
excessive rainfall and localized flooding during the overnight hours
-- supported by regenerative convection amid rich moisture/weak
persistent ascent. Thermodynamic profiles will be supportive of
locally heavy rainfall, though training/backbuilding of convective
cells will exacerbate the flooding risk.

There will also be a conditional risk of brief tornadic activity, as
enhanced deep-layer shear (near 45 knots) overspreads the CWA amid
rich surface moisture and elongating/veering hodographs. The primary
factor regarding tornadic potential will be the ability for
convection to become rooted at/near the surface -- where the rich
moisture will be located. We will be closely monitoring the
evolution of the aforementioned surface boundary and rich boundary
layer moisture.

There is currently plenty of uncertainty regarding storm
mode/evolution/intensity -- owing to the weak large-scale forcing
regime in place and anticipated marginal buoyancy over land areas. A
reasonable-worst case scenario involves the development of a few
rotating discrete cells amongst a larger area of rain, in addition
to locally heavy rain and flooding. Present indications are that the
greatest risk will be focused across the southern and eastern
portions of South Florida, including the Gulf Coast metro areas.
Keep up with the latest information from NWS Miami.

[FLweather]

On 12/6/2020 at 4:09 PM, turtlehurricane said:

The NWS Miami discussion is piquing my interest, they make it seem like this will really be a severe event. I've seen plenty of these severe events, in-fact most of them, end up underwhelming, but once in awhile they meet expectations. Definitely something fun to watch either way. 

.Mesoscale Discussion...

A mid/upper-level low over TX will deamplify into an open wave
today, as it phases with an additional mid-level impulse diving
southward into the middle Mississippi Valley. This evolution of the
mid/upper-level flow pattern will support the development of a long-
wave trough over the eastern states, and broad/enhanced mid-level
cyclonic flow increasing across the South Florida CWA into the
evening/overnight hours.

As the large-scale pattern continues to consolidate today, an upper-
level jet streak will develop over the SE CONUS -- providing upper-
level divergence and weak forcing for ascent across the region. At
the surface, a remnant quasi-stationary frontal boundary is evident
via the latest RAP mesoscale analysis -- extending from the southern
Gulf of Mexico eastward across portions of South Florida. South of
this surface boundary, rich boundary layer moisture is evident
(characterized by dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s). As the
above mentioned enhanced mid/upper-level cyclonic flow increases
over the area, a weak frontal wave/surface low should develop over
the eastern Gulf of Mexico (along the quasi-stationary surface
boundary).

As the frontal wave develops, the aforementioned rich boundary layer
moisture will gradually spread northward across South Florida,
coincident with weak WAA and associated isentropic ascent over the
boundary. In addition, the latest high resolution model guidance
depicts the development of a southwesterly low-level jet across
South Florida, further enhancing mesoscale ascent, moisture
advection, and vertical shear profiles across South Florida.

All of the above mentioned factors will introduce a risk of
excessive rainfall and localized flooding during the overnight hours
-- supported by regenerative convection amid rich moisture/weak
persistent ascent. Thermodynamic profiles will be supportive of
locally heavy rainfall, though training/backbuilding of convective
cells will exacerbate the flooding risk.

There will also be a conditional risk of brief tornadic activity, as
enhanced deep-layer shear (near 45 knots) overspreads the CWA amid
rich surface moisture and elongating/veering hodographs. The primary
factor regarding tornadic potential will be the ability for
convection to become rooted at/near the surface -- where the rich
moisture will be located. We will be closely monitoring the
evolution of the aforementioned surface boundary and rich boundary
layer moisture.

There is currently plenty of uncertainty regarding storm
mode/evolution/intensity -- owing to the weak large-scale forcing
regime in place and anticipated marginal buoyancy over land areas. A
reasonable-worst case scenario involves the development of a few
rotating discrete cells amongst a larger area of rain, in addition
to locally heavy rain and flooding. Present indications are that the
greatest risk will be focused across the southern and eastern
portions of South Florida, including the Gulf Coast metro areas.
Keep up with the latest information from NWS Miami.

Did you get any severe weather from this system?

Rain started here just before 11pm.

More than I expected. 

CAA fully underway... upper 30s tonight. 

[turtlehurricane]

2 hours ago, FLweather said:

Did you get any severe weather from this system?

Rain started here just before 11pm.

More than I expected. 

CAA fully underway... upper 30s tonight. 

I believe we just got heavy rain. I was up during the worst of it and didn't even hear thunder. SPC shows zero storm reports. 

CAA underway here too. Was warm and near 80 this afternoon, but by sunset we had a strong breeze and cooling temps. Now already in the upper 60s which is very refreshing. 

Forecast high of 64 tomorrow, and lows in the 40s tomorrow night! I'm super excited. 

[FLweather]

5 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said:

I believe we just got heavy rain. I was up during the worst of it and didn't even hear thunder. SPC shows zero storm reports. 

CAA underway here too. Was warm and near 80 this afternoon, but by sunset we had a strong breeze and cooling temps. Now already in the upper 60s which is very refreshing. 

Forecast high of 64 tomorrow, and lows in the 40s tomorrow night! I'm super excited. 

Any Iguanas Special weather statement?

That CAA coming.  It was in the 50s most of the day. Had high clouds that turned to mist/showers after the first initial prefrontal axis. Then the front hit.

Last 2hours or so before the sun went down it cleared out and warmed up to the mid 60s.

[turtlehurricane]

9 hours ago, FLweather said:

Any Iguanas Special weather statement?

That CAA coming.  It was in the 50s most of the day. Had high clouds that turned to mist/showers after the first initial prefrontal axis. Then the front hit.

Last 2hours or so before the sun went down it cleared out and warmed up to the mid 60s.

Haha. Well, it would have to get more towards 40 for iguanas to really start dropping. Might be a few iguanas coming off trees tomorrow, although it takes a more prolonged and deeper cold for that to happen on a widespread scale. 

Down to 55 here. Haven't ventured out yet but I'm sure it's freezing cold. Could make a run towards 50 before the sun rises in 2-3 hours, steady temp drop all night from CAA and clear skies. House is feeling cold even though AC isn't on. 

[turtlehurricane]

Just did my morning prayers outside, which takes about 15 minutes, and it was so cold. It's awesome though. My skin hasn't felt cold like this in a long time. 

Hovering in the low 50s here as the day starts, 40s in the northwestern reaches of South Florida, and 30s in the north-central peninsula. I see a short fused frost advisory was issued up there this morning.

Today looks to be remarkable for Southeast Florida, since high temps don't look to get beyond the low 60s despite full sunshine. That's about as cold as it ever gets here on a sunny day. 

[turtlehurricane]

Dewpoints have crashed into the 30s, as low as 33 F, by far the lowest of the year. High looks to be 64, which is the current temp. 

Absolutely ideal radiational cooling setup for tonight, with very low dewpoints, clear skies, relatively light winds, and the longest nights of the year since we're near the solstice. Low temps have been trending downward, forecast low of 46 F even here on the coast directly next to the Gulf Stream. Widespread 30s look possible across the Everglades, and maybe even in the western parts of the metro areas. 

In-fact, frost is in the forecast for the everglades, all the way down into western Broward. No frost advisories yet, may be some short-fused frost advisories tonight though. That being said, no one lives out there.

Will be exciting to track the temp drop tonight. 

EDIT, NWS Miami disco talks all about it

With lightening winds, frost is a concern with most of the inland
areas around the Lake seeing the potential of some patchy frost,
especially in sheltered areas, though the colder temperatures
filtering down the ridge from Central Florida towards Glades and
Hendry could create more areas of frost there. A Frost Advisory will
likely be necessary for Glades and Hendry for tonight. There is some
forecast uncertainty, particularly for inland portions of South
Florida. The Lake Okeechobee region looks to be the coldest part of
South Florida tonight but the wind may not diminish enough to
preclude concerns about wind chill, particularly for inland portions
of Southwest Florida and Palm Beach County. Will allow the evening
shift to monitor for this as well. The model trend has been chillier
with each run and favored a blend of the 12z GFS MOS guidance and
the National Blend of Models, which straddled around the middle-of-
the-road in the guidance spread. The threat of a freeze is not zero
over inland Southwest Florida, but the wind should be enough to keep
temperatures from nose-diving below 32 and the airmass may have
enough moisture near the surface (with dewpoints around 35) to help
provide a buffer against a freeze in most of these areas.

[FLweather]

Another cold Florida day.  Upper 50s sun and wind today after a cold morning near 40.

Apopka and most of Orange county under a frost advisory.  

Low 60ish tomorrow. 

[turtlehurricane]

3 hours ago, FLweather said:

Another cold Florida day.  Upper 50s sun and wind today after a cold morning near 40.

Apopka and most of Orange county under a frost advisory.  

Low 60ish tomorrow. 

Frost advisory now extends into South Florida, as far south as Glades and Hendry counties. 

Dropped into the 50s as soon as the sun set here, and now into the low 50s. I walked outside and it feels so nice, very cold but also dry. It's cold enough that it reminds me of Wisconsin. Also classic smell of smoke in the air from fireplaces.  

[FLweather]

Quite frosty this morning. About 34.

Not as frosty as the other day. 

But the lake behind my house was steaming good. Looked like a big pot of boiling water. 

[FLweather]

Was a nice warm day. Started off a little cool.

But didn't take long to change clothes and drop the jacket. 

Made it up to 80 a little over. 

Currently the windows have been open and shorts and flip flops. 

Glad the weather turned out nice today 

Was able to watch the SirusXM 7 SpaceX launch from my place. 

That's a big bright fireball underneath those Falcon 9 rockets.

[turtlehurricane]

On 12/13/2020 at 5:31 PM, FLweather said:

Was a nice warm day. Started off a little cool.

But didn't take long to change clothes and drop the jacket. 

Made it up to 80 a little over. 

Currently the windows have been open and shorts and flip flops. 

Glad the weather turned out nice today 

Was able to watch the SirusXM 7 SpaceX launch from my place. 

That's a big bright fireball underneath those Falcon 9 rockets.

Yeah, we can see the rocket launches even from here! At least at night time, not sure about day time cause I haven't tried yet. Back in the Space Shuttle days we could see that in the daytime tho, but the Falcon 9 is obviously much weaker than the Space Shuttle based on my memory.

There's a nice looking frontal system moving through Florida today https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-Florida-01-24-1-50-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

It's been in the mid 80s every day here, back to summery weather. Looks like one cold day coming though, 50s tomorrow night and high of only 70 on Friday. Nothing like the previous could shot where we had multiple mornings in the 40s and multiple days struggling to hit the mid 60s, but I'm still excited about it.

Still looking forward to the first frost/freeze threat here in Southeast Florida, if that ever happens. Entering winter prime time tho so it's possible in the coming months. 

[TPAwx]

Not too common here.

 

[TPAwx]

[TPAwx]

[FLweather]

13 hours ago, turtlehurricane said:

Yeah, we can see the rocket launches even from here! At least at night time, not sure about day time cause I haven't tried yet. Back in the Space Shuttle days we could see that in the daytime tho, but the Falcon 9 is obviously much weaker than the Space Shuttle based on my memory.

There's a nice looking frontal system moving through Florida today https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-Florida-01-24-1-50-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

It's been in the mid 80s every day here, back to summery weather. Looks like one cold day coming though, 50s tomorrow night and high of only 70 on Friday. Nothing like the previous could shot where we had multiple mornings in the 40s and multiple days struggling to hit the mid 60s, but I'm still excited about it.

Still looking forward to the first frost/freeze threat here in Southeast Florida, if that ever happens. Entering winter prime time tho so it's possible in the coming months. 

Another Falcon 9 being shot up this morning about 9am.

 

Yeah this cold shot really not impressive imo. High of 64 today... essentially what it is atm. I think today's temperature forecast will be a bust. It's cool but really no CAA. Once the sun comes up. I find it hard to believe that temps will be  steady. 

13 hours ago, TPAwx said:

Not too common here.

 

That was an impressive line yesterday over the GOM. Sort of fell apart as soon as it hit land.

Do alot of damage?

[turtlehurricane]

The cold front is finally making its presence felt here, rain just began hitting the windows. We won't get much rain, just some light showers, but this is indeed the front. 

It's in the low 80s now, forecast to be mid 50s tomorrow morning. That's a drastic temperature change. 

P.S. Long range GFS shows an extremely powerful front in just over a week. If it happens, would bring freeze potential state-wide. 

[jlauderdal]

The cold front is finally making its presence felt here, rain just began hitting the windows. We won't get much rain, just some light showers, but this is indeed the front. 
It's in the low 80s now, forecast to be mid 50s tomorrow morning. That's a drastic temperature change. 
P.S. Long range GFS shows an extremely powerful front in just over a week. If it happens, would bring freeze potential state-wide. 

Euro has high in the 50s for sofla xmas day

[turtlehurricane]

The cold front near the end of this week looks super impressive. NWS not really biting yet, just forecasting highs in 60s and lows in the 50s, but if the models keep showing it this strong a few days from now I'm sure they will drop the forecasted lows deep into the 40s or even the 30s, especially since this is happening right at the Winter Solstice. 

In the meantime a weaker cold front coming tomorrow night, and it will drop lows into the 50s on Monday night. Lows were in the 50s this morning too, so basically we're in peak winter and getting cold front after cold front. 

[turtlehurricane]

Winter Solstice is happening at 5 a.m. Eastern Time, so the shortest day of the year and the lowest sun angle of the year has arrived!

From south to north, here are Winter Solstice stats for Florida 

Key West: Day Length 10 hours 37 minutes, Noon Sun Angle 42 degrees

Homestead: Day Length 10 hours 33 minutes, Noon Sun Angle 41.1 degrees

Miami: Day Length 10 hours 32 minutes, Noon Sun Angle 40.8 degrees

Fort Lauderdale: Day Length 10 hours 30 minutes, Noon Sun Angle 40.5 degrees

West Palm Beach & Fort Myers: Day Length 10 hours 28 minutes, Noon Sun Angle 39.9 degrees

Palmdale (northernmost and coldest place in South Florida): Day Length 10 hours 27 minutes, Noon Sun Angle  39.6 degrees

Tampa: Day Length 10 hours 22 minutes, Noon Sun Angle 38.6 degrees

Melbourne: Day Length 10 hours 22 minutes, Noon Sun Angle 38.5 degrees

Orlando: Day Length 10 hours 20 minutes, Noon Sun Angle 38 degrees

Ocala: Day Length 10 hours 17 minutes, Noon Sun Angle 37.4 degrees

Gainesville: Day Length 10 hours 15 minutes, Noon Sun Angle 36.9 degrees

Jacksonville: Day Length 10 hours 11 minutes, Noon Sun Angle 36.3 degrees

Pensacola: Day Length 10 hours 11 minutes, Noon Sun Angle 36.2 degrees

Tallahassee: Day Length 10 hours 11 minutes, Noon Sun Angle 36.1 degrees

Paxton (Along northernmost border of Florida): Day Length 10 hours 8 minutes, Noon Sun Angle 35.6 degrees

Overall, between the southernmost point in Florida at Key West, and the northernmost point along the northern border of the Panhandle, there is a day length difference of 29 minutes and a noon sun angle difference of 6.4 degrees. And that apparently makes all the difference between a tropical climate in Key West and a cold continental climate in the Panhandle. 

[FLweather]

Christmas Day looks rather nippy.

A blend of GFS,CMC,Icon at this standpoint temps will not even hit 50 but insist on being stuck in the 40s all day.

Temps will go from near 80 Thursday afternoon to upper 40s Friday afternoon. A solid 30+ degree drop in roughly 24 hours. 

Temps look favorable for below 32 Saturday morning. 

[turtlehurricane]

Appropriate weather for the winter solstice today, it's overcast, cool, and breezy as a cold front pushes through. In-fact, I'm within the actual frontal boundary right now. Currently in the low 70s and heading towards the 50s tonight. 

NWS Miami getting more aggressive with the late-week front as it gets closer. Now forecasting highs in low 60s and lows in mid 40s, which is extremely cold for South Florida. Forecast could trend even further downward, I think highs in 50s and lows in the 30s are possible based on how strong the front is and how it's happening right on the Winter Solstice. 

[FLweather]

3 hours ago, turtlehurricane said:

Appropriate weather for the winter solstice today, it's overcast, cool, and breezy as a cold front pushes through. In-fact, I'm within the actual frontal boundary right now. Currently in the low 70s and heading towards the 50s tonight. 

NWS Miami getting more aggressive with the late-week front as it gets closer. Now forecasting highs in low 60s and lows in mid 40s, which is extremely cold for South Florida. Forecast could trend even further downward, I think highs in 50s and lows in the 30s are possible based on how strong the front is and how it's happening right on the Winter Solstice. 

Man looking at the soundings of the GFS. Pretty impressive dewpoints.Extremely low for this area. Saturday morning per sounding temp 35 DP 16.

Needless to say if we can get nearly perfect conditions for radiational cooling dps that low. Upper 20s without a question. 

[turtlehurricane]

1 hour ago, FLweather said:

Man looking at the soundings of the GFS. Pretty impressive dewpoints.Extremely low for this area. Saturday morning per sounding temp 35 DP 16.

Needless to say if we can get nearly perfect conditions for radiational cooling dps that low. Upper 20s without a question. 

NWS Miami starting to hint at wind chill advisories even on the Southeast FL coast 

Behind the front, a much colder air mass advects into the area.
Lows on Friday are currently showing to be in the 40s in the Lake
region and low 50s elsewhere. But, by Saturday morning, low are
forecast to be in the mid 30s in the western Lake region to mid
40s in the east coast metro areas. Wind chills are dropping the
apparent temperature into the 30s across almost the entire area.
This will be the coldest night behind the front, as a warming
trend Begins after a chilly start Saturday.

If it trends a bit colder, which is easily possible, could end up with frost or even freeze advisories. 

[FLweather]

18z gfs came in cooler with day time highs Christmas Day.  Slightly warmer Saturday morning.

H5 pretty stretched out this run. The angle of the cold seem further east. 

[FLweather]

If you believe the nam. South Florida will be low 60s Christmas Day.  While Central Florida north will be in the mid 40s to upper 30s in the panhandle . 

[turtlehurricane]

5 hours ago, FLweather said:

If you believe the nam. South Florida will be low 60s Christmas Day.  While Central Florida north will be in the mid 40s to upper 30s in the panhandle . 

Looks like a very hard freeze for basically all of northern Florida. If temps trend a little colder then a light freeze we easily go down the entire interior of the peninsula. 

[turtlehurricane]

Frontal zone becoming better defined over the middle of the country. Should become quite vigorous over the next day. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=continental-southconus-01-24-0-50-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

I still think there's room for the forecast to trend colder depending on what exactly happens with the dual cyclogenesis over the Great Lakes and East Coast.