The Florida Winter Thread

[turtlehurricane]

Many years ago I created a South Florida Winter Thread. In-fact, it was so long ago it may have been on EasternUSWX. Now I'm bringing it back, because I love posting winter observations, and discussing winter with other Floridians. Also, this time the thread will be for all of Florida, including South Florida, Central Florida, Northeast Florida, and the Panhandle. 

The reason I am making this thread now is that the GFS shows the first powerful cold front of the year crossing through the state a week from now. 

Notably, up to this point it's been the warmest Autumn in history in Southeast Florida. We usually get our first good cold front in October, if not late September, but this year still no strong cold fronts. 

Indeed, it didn't even get below 70 until a couple days ago, when sites across Southeast Florida managed to get into the upper 60s during the early morning hours. 

Let the Florida winter discussion begin! People from up north may make fun of our winter, but I find it absolutely fascinating. Hopefully we get some freezes, and maybe even some flurries! 

[FLweather]

It was pretty chilly last couple of mornings.  But today was just plain hot.

Looking at the long range after the 1st we will be looking at a drastic change. 

Mid low 60s and mid upper 40s for the I4 corridor.

I used to live in NC but after being back the first year my blood really thinned out. 

Anything below 60 I get cold. I guess I'll be rocking socks, flip flops, shorts and a jacket. 

But I can say one thing Florida cold is alot different than up north. 

It's a wet cold not a dry cold.

Will be interesting to see how this winter evolves. 

On an interesting note CMC definitely colder that GFS. Upper 20s in the panhandle even first freeze/frost for the Orlando area. 

Dec1 has highs in upper 40s for highs

[turtlehurricane]

Even when it gets down to just 70 it feels cold to me! We had a morning or two near 70 this year so far and it felt pretty much chilly. 

As for the coming event, it seems the GFS has gotten stronger with the cold airmass as the event has gotten closer. Looks like a potential freeze in northern Florida is on the table.

This will be an extremely drastic change here, going from no cold fronts at all to a legitimately strong cold front. Also, based on GFS, looks like cold air will stick around. Basically going from Summer to Winter in just one day. 

[RT1980]

Hey,  you guys in Florida have as good of a chance of seeing cold weather this year as us in the Piedmont of NC!

[turtlehurricane]

Miami NWS discussion this morning. I'm excited. 

Behind the front, some drier air will move into the area and the mid-
level low will be north of the region, which should allow for lower
rain chances mid next week. Wednesday and Thursday are trending
cooler with morning lows in the 40s and 50s on Wednesday morning and
a few degrees warmer on Thursday morning. Tuesday and Wednesday`s
afternoon highs will struggle to reach the upper 60s and lower 70s
across the region as well with gusty northwesterly to northerly
wind. Thursday should also be a drier day, though temperatures will
be warming up.

[FLweather]

Cooler readings persist into Tue with highs only in the U50s to M60s
under mostly sunny skies. Post-frontal high pressure will then
gradually move in from the north and west toward mid-week, remaining
the dominant feature through the middle of next week. The coolest
readings of the week are advertised Tue night with lows dipping into
the U30s along and west of I-4, with M40s south to Lake Okeechobee
and roughly west of US Highway One. A continuation of dry and cool
conditions through midweek with lows once again in the M-U40s for a
large portion of the interior areas area Wed night. A limited
warming trend will occur the latter half of next week with another
fast moving system spreading high/mid clouds, and perhaps enough
moisture for sprinkles or light showers to the parts of the area
area late next week.

 

NWS has us around 43 Tuesday morning with a high of 55-57. Low Wednesday morning upper 30s to near 40.

Looking at roughly a 20 degree drop from Monday to Tuesday. 

[turtlehurricane]

Today was a weird day. We're not in a cold air mass at all obviously, but there was a deck of low clouds all day and temps were in the upper 70s. Basically even without cold air advection the really low sun angle this time of year is making its presence felt. It felt room temperature outside, no warmth at all but not cold either. 

NWS calling for upper 40s Wednesday morning here. That will be such a drastic change, it will feel frigid after how warm this year has been.

Behind the front, high pressure builds back across the peninsula,
with northwesterly to northerly flow advecting a colder and drier
airmass into the region. The coldest temperatures should be felt
Wednesday morning with overnight lows dipping into the upper 40s
to lower 50s across coastal metro areas and mid to lower 40s over
the interior and western Lake Region. This will be somewhat short-
lived as high pressure slides further eastward, veering the flow
out of the northeast then east, essentially inciting a warming
and slight moistening trend as the airmass modifies by late week.

[FLweather]

Definitely can tell a change is brewing. Clouds looked pretty ominous yesterday. 

Started out cloudy and foggy this morning. But sun is out. Last day of the 80s for the forsee able future. 

Per NWS disco our highs tomorrow shall occur relatively early in the day. With the temps crashing by afternoon. 

80% chance of rain tomorrow morning.  But not expecting much. These types of setups usually offer a 30 minute band of broken showers/thunder before the wind shift happens. 

[turtlehurricane]

2 hours ago, FLweather said:

Definitely can tell a change is brewing. Clouds looked pretty ominous yesterday. 

Started out cloudy and foggy this morning. But sun is out. Last day of the 80s for the forsee able future. 

Per NWS disco our highs tomorrow shall occur relatively early in the day. With the temps crashing by afternoon. 

80% chance of rain tomorrow morning.  But not expecting much. These types of setups usually offer a 30 minute band of broken showers/thunder before the wind shift happens. 

The low pressure that is going to usher in the cold front is taking shape over Louisiana, and will rapidly deepen as it ejects up the east coast https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/

It's exciting to see that it's actually happening. Time for this long hot summer to end!

[turtlehurricane]

Freeze watch in the westernmost part of the Panhandle... first freeze advisories of the year in Florida? I'm not 100% sure, but I think so. 

...FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 25 possible.

* WHERE...Portions of south central and southwest Alabama,
  northwest Florida and southeast Mississippi.

* WHEN...From Monday evening through Tuesday morning.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other
  sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor
  plumbing.

[FLweather]

A broken line of Thunderstorms extending from Jacksonville to Tampa Bay.  Those clouds ahead of the front are racing north east 

[NavarreDon]

14 hours ago, turtlehurricane said:

Freeze watch in the westernmost part of the Panhandle... first freeze advisories of the year in Florida? I'm not 100% sure, but I think so. 

...FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 25 possible.

* WHERE...Portions of south central and southwest Alabama,
  northwest Florida and southeast Mississippi.

* WHEN...From Monday evening through Tuesday morning.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other
  sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor
  plumbing.

Yes they are the first. Currently in the low 50's with a strong NW wind (Wind advisory all day). Temps won't budge all day!

[FLweather]

44 minutes ago, NavarreDon said:

Yes they are the first. Currently in the low 50's with a strong NW wind (Wind advisory all day). Temps won't budge all day!

Break out the snow guns. 

[turtlehurricane]

4 hours ago, FLweather said:

A broken line of Thunderstorms extending from Jacksonville to Tampa Bay.  Those clouds ahead of the front are racing north east 

Front looking juicier with the heating of the day, and as it collides into the more tropical air further south. Some intense cells over Fort Myers https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar_lite.php?rid=tbw&product=N0R&loop=yes

The stratocumulus over the Gulf shows that the cold air advection is very impressive https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-southeast-01-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

So excited, first real frontal passage for South Florida just hours from now. Forecasted lows in the 50s tonight and upper 40s tomorrow night. It's gonna feel like zero degrees lol

[turtlehurricane]

We have entered the frontal zone here in the Southeast Florida metro area. Very ominous looking clouds and a stiff southwest wind. You can really tell the weather is about to change the way it is out there. 

Radar shows the main activity, which is a broken line of heavy downpours, is quickly pushing east across the Everglades. Surface obs indicate that temperature is crashing into the low 70s behind the front, as opposed to mid 80s on the southeast coast. 

Just noticed that freeze watches/warnings now extend across the entire panhandle, extending as far south as Cross City. 

[FLweather]

Temperatures are really dropping now since the sun went down.  But since about noon the air has really dried out. 

[FLweather]

Already down in the 50s here. Going to be cold night ahead. Wind has relaxed some definitely not as windy.

[turtlehurricane]

1 hour ago, FLweather said:

Already down in the 50s here. Going to be cold night ahead. Wind has relaxed some definitely not as windy.

Still waiting on the drier and cooler air to filter in here. Winds have shifted to out of the west, but still in low 70s with dew points around 70. The real cooler air is crossing the Everglades, dew points in the 50s with northwest winds in Ft. Myers and Lake Okeechobee. Should start to get cooler here before midnight tho. 

Just saw that freeze watches have been extended down into the peninsula, including Gainesville and as far south as Brooksville, which is actually south of Orlando. Could see a solid frost in the orange growing regions tomorrow night. Extremely dramatic change! So happy winter is happening. 

[NavarreDon]

Got down to 30.4° near the coast this am! Forecast was for 34°. Had to start the wife's car to rid it of frost.

[turtlehurricane]

The long hot summer is over!!! Just walked outside and it's ice cold! The air is so refreshing, and the sky is the clearest blue that I've seen in a very long time. 

Currently in the upper 50s here. I thought I missed the lows of the night since it's 9 am and I just woke up, but checking the data, the cold air advection is so powerful that the current temperatures are the lows of the past 24 hours, temp has been dropping since sunrise!

Expected highs in the mid 60s, I'm definitely gonna walk with my wife as much as possible today. 

24 minutes ago, NavarreDon said:

Got down to 30.4° near the coast this am! Forecast was for 34°. Had to start the wife's car to rid it of frost.

Looks like a freeze across the entire Panhandle, with freezing temps as far south as Cross City and as far east as Gainesville. Looks like the freeze tonight will be even more expansive, with frost potential extending all the way down into the Lake Okeechobee region. 

[turtlehurricane]

Opened a window for the first time this year and the cold air coming through feels so incredible. Lit a vanilla/cinnamon incense and it's blowing in the breeze and filling the house with relaxing vibes. I missed this so much, and had practically forgotten what cool air felt like!

Hovering in the mid 60s. Already past solar noon so sun is getting lower, and that combined with strong cold air advection probably means that temps won't get any warmer today. 

I'm seeing northern Florida and even parts of Central Florida aren't even getting out of the 40s! 

This is really unique, since our first cold front usually isn't so powerful. 

[FLweather]

Got down to 43 this morning.  Definitely cold. 230pm and its 52. Not a cloud in the sky. 

Still wearing a hoodie under a jacket. Enjoying a nice hot bowl of chili.

 

[turtlehurricane]

The sun has set, and now the coldest night so far this year in Florida begins. NWS has raised wind chill advisories for a large swath of Southwest Florida, including Glades, Hendry, and inland Collier county. Wind chills expected to be upper 20s to mid 30s there.

Here in the Southeast Florida metro area it will be low 50s according to the forecast, already upper 50s now. Maybe it could creep into the upper 40s though considering how clear the sky is, and how the winds are almost calm, and dew points are in the lower to middle 40s. 

Zooming out, freeze likely as far south as Ocala and Brooksville. 

[FLweather]

Freeze warnings west of here. Special weather statements here.

Patchy frost 35-37 tomorrow.  

 

[FLweather]

36 here this morning.  Had a raging fire last night.  Was nice sitting by a hot fire after working outside yesterday. 

[turtlehurricane]

I went out there this morning and it was freezing cold, and I quickly went inside. I apparently can't handle temperatures this low. We got down to roughly 50. 

Impressively cold temperatures recorded across northern Florida. Cross City, which is actually on the peninsula, went down to 24. Ocala hit 26, and 20s as far south as Inverness, where it hit 28. 

Even a site in the northwestern most part of South Florida, Venus in Glades County, hit 33. Another site just east of Naples actually hit 33 too. 

This cold event definitely over-performed in some areas. 

[floridapirate]

36 as of this morning near DeLand.  I'm only 14 months removed from NJ, this is too cold for me!

[FLweather]

This morning I seen heavy frost north end of Apopka towards Rock Springs and Mount Dora.  Almost looked like a light snow had fallen. 

[FLweather]

The last couple of days haven't been so bad.  Upper 60s to low 70s. Still cool in the mornings though. 

70 today 73 tomorrow. 

Depending on how and where those short waves swing through Monday morning.  May just have some light showers or with embedded thunder storms.

The bahia grass that hit by the heavy frost the other day was brown/black the next day. 

The official end of the growing season.  Even though this area all the way to the keys stay evergreen year round. 

[FLweather]

Looking at 12z nam, gfs, cmc. All pretty much in agreement.  Looks like the best chance of convection will be around Lake Okeechobee and south as the SWs dig and surface low blossoms over the Atlantic waters Sunday Night into Monday. 

 

Should remain relatively dry then, maybe a few windshield showers/mist.