Sub 1000MB sfc low and associated significant hazards Nov 30-Dec 1, 2020

[hudsonvalley21]

[wdrag]

2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

From the look of it this should be an advisory wind event. High wind criteria is 57mph or over I believe. 

NWS has to make the call... guidance I'm seeing says 50 - 60 MPH and multiple hours out there, iso 70 possible. 

 Criteria for HWA sustained ASOS -NWS accepted mesonet wind 40 MPH or NWS accepted gust 58 MPH , or damage.  Damage appears likely to me for parts of LI, but that's just my take on this evolution.  I see the 21z op HRRR is starting to push gusts 45-55 MPH at 10 AM into s NJ.  This is probably my last post til 630AM Monday.

[Dan76]

Just hoisted 

[wdrag]

Now this should be my last post til morning. 23z HRRR for Noon Monday... max gusts thru that time. NJ coast is cranking in Ocean County, ridges in nw NJ starting to hit 50 and NYC-LI etc should start hitting 50 MPH in parts of the area around 1230-130P.  Rereviewing guidance tomorrow morning. By then we'll probably have a pretty good idea if svr broke out in the Carolinas and if ORF is up to 35KT at 6AM.   This will be a very fast developer. HRRR has 89KT e of Ocean County NJ at 17z. Seems 10 kt too high. That could affect the sfc gusts...  but In think the idea is here... intensifying as it moves closer to LI...

[nycsnow]

Upton not impressed at all... shocker 

[Rtd208]

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

[wdrag]

Good Monday morning all, 

I don't expect this wind event to be quite as strong as Nov 15, but I am expecting power outages I95 corridor eastward and if svr occurs e PA/w NJ, there too. 

00z06z/30 wind fields aloft seem to be down about 3 kt from yesterday but the FOUS from the 06z NAM is emphatic about an event this afternoon-evening (noon-9PM).  First best chance of 50 MPH NYC area around 1PM, then again 5-6P if a svr narrow fine line approaches from the west. 

You saw the SPC D1 above.  I'm including the latest HRRR gust forecast through 01z/1 plus the minimum SPC SREF gust forecast for today, both MPH.

It's a matter of monitoring and seeing if we get a low topped fine line of convection 3P-7P. Strongest wind gusts overall continue for LI/CT. Still thinking gusts 45kt many of the airport NYC area east and northeast toward RI, some of it in gradient-showers, and others with thunder.  nw Nj/ne PA/se NYS  max gust 45-55 MPH, mainly near ridges. 

Follow NWS forecasts/statements/any warnings and monitor upstream developments, comparing with the models. 

Right now 16,000 without power in southern GA...minor yellow on the power outage grid from recent svr wx. 

Big snows expected from near DAY to CLE and ERI by Tuesday night. Much of the northeast 2/3 of Ohio could have snow depth of 6" or greater by early Wednesday morning.  

Let's see what happens. 525A/30

 

[nycsnow]

Latest nam has gust 50+ from around noon till 7pm 

[wdrag]

1 hour ago, nycsnow said:

Latest nam has gust 50+ from around noon till 7pm 

Hope you're right...  am a little concerned that this will be lower end event... BUT... too much wind in the sounding to ignore the potential.  So far 48KT at MCN GA around 0839z, and CHS SC 44 kt at 1120z.  It's just going to emerge-blossom late this morning in NJ and spreasfd newd from there.  IF nothing in NJ over 45 MPH by Noon, then much less of a gradient event, then just counting on a convective line of some sort mid afternoon. 

[wdrag]

1215Z... gusts up to 38 KT on the VA coast portion of the Delmarva. 

[uofmiami]

 

[Rtd208]

A pretty good slug of rain moving into the area, 1-2" amounts are a good probability IMO.

[wdrag]

Ocean City MD Weather flow sensor 47 KT now, and Dewey Beach DE weather flow sensor has reached 39.8KT.  Cranking up on the Delmarva coast and probably only increasing from there.  HRRR op run now trying to form a convective line late this afternoon NJ coast. We'll see what happens. 

 

Meanwhile from near Nashville TN to near Lex KY many reports 1/2-1" snowfall so far. mping has the snow rain mess in OH etc. 

[crossbowftw3]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

If we can realize the surface based instability that the NAM has later, then chances for 60 mph + gusts and isolated brief tornadoes goes up.

Weak instability overall but quite good shear. Gonna be interesting to see what might fire up later since a dry slot is coming in rather quick. Should shut the rain down and increase chances for some storms.

[wdrag]

Strongest warm frontal se wind now shifting to the central-southern NJ coast with reports of 40 knot.  

[wdrag]

Don't know if Mt Holly will use the 59 MPH in the past hour at Fortesque on DE Bay (far southern NJ).  

[crossbowftw3]

Meanwhile in the Catskills wind beginning pick up now and should be strongest for the next 3-5 hours, gusts between 25-35 still seem reasonable if anything mixes down, shifting east quickly.

then thereafter watching for any convection but chances seem kinda questionable with the stable layer existing. I like CNJ and points northeast of there for actual convective chances. Surprised SPC didn't expand slight risk to at least coastal areas.

 

@wdrag what are the odds this far N&W of the city sees anything convection wise, still decent?

[nycsnow]

12z nam still advertising 50-60mph gust starting around 11 till 6/7pm lollipops of higher gust 

[crossbowftw3]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I believe this is the first time near Dec1st since 2006 that we had a 5% for TOR so close to the region.

 

Dec 1, 2006 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Odd to see this late in the year but not unprecedented. Most everything should shut off within the 3 hour window after sunset so if we see convection it should be firing up by 2-3 PM.

[nycsnow]

 

[nycsnow]

Hrr has 50-60+ gust as well but seems like it comes more in waves 

[lee59]

Southeast wind gusting to 33mph here.

[wdrag]

52.9 KT Ocean City south beach NJ near ACY at about 940AM ish. 

[wdrag]

Logan Township extreme sw NJ 50 kt ~950A>  NJ Climate station

[mgerb]

3 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Logan Township extreme sw NJ 50 kt ~950A>  NJ Climate station

50 mph. All, you can monitor those here (note: problem with maps displaying on Chrome; other browsers should work): https://www.njweather.org/maps/nj-statewide-wind-gusts-daily-max

[nycsnow]

Gust to 44 so far in Brooklyn south

[wdrag]

Note; past 3 hours of reported wind gusts 40 kt and greater.  ACY-ILG among them. 

KACY: Atlantic City, Atlantic City Intl Arpt, NJ, United States [45kt, 23m/s]

KCHS: Charleston, Charleston AFB, SC, United States [48kt, 25m/s]

KCRE: North Myrtle Beach, Grand Strand Airport, SC, United States [47kt, 24m/s]

KGYY: Gary Regional, IN, United States [40kt, 21m/s]

KILG: Wilmington, New Castle County Airport, DE, United States [42kt, 22m/s]

KILM: Wilmington, Wilmington Intl Arpt, NC, United States [40kt, 21m/s]

KMRH: Beaufort, Michael J Smith Field Airport, NC, United States [45kt, 23m/s]    I saw a 50 knot  there more than 3 hrs ago.

[wdrag]

7 minutes ago, mgerb said:

50 mph. All, you can monitor those here (note: problem with maps displaying on Chrome; other browsers should work): https://www.njweather.org/maps/nj-statewide-wind-gusts-daily-max

Thanks... excellent post. One note... don't go only by the legend.  see the 50 in sw NJ... i think there is a downward blend of all the data. Bottom line 45-60 MPH gusts are now occurring here and there the south two thirds of NJ. 

[nycsnow]

1 minute ago, wdrag said:

Note; past 3 hours of reported wind gusts 40 kt and greater.  ACY-ILG among them. 

KACY: Atlantic City, Atlantic City Intl Arpt, NJ, United States [45kt, 23m/s]

KCHS: Charleston, Charleston AFB, SC, United States [48kt, 25m/s]

KCRE: North Myrtle Beach, Grand Strand Airport, SC, United States [47kt, 24m/s]

KGYY: Gary Regional, IN, United States [40kt, 21m/s]

KILG: Wilmington, New Castle County Airport, DE, United States [42kt, 22m/s]

KILM: Wilmington, Wilmington Intl Arpt, NC, United States [40kt, 21m/s]

KMRH: Beaufort, Michael J Smith Field Airport, NC, United States [45kt, 23m/s]    I saw a 50 knot  there more than 3 hrs ago.

How ya feeling now about it? Think we bust low or get a solid event 

[crossbowftw3]

Just now, nycsnow said:

How ya feeling now about it? Think we bust low or get a solid event 

looking good for you guys in the city here.