MJO812 Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 1 minute ago, forkyfork said: we need a well timed phase to overcome a crappy airmass well away from peak climo. gl Agree Looking good for interior areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 59 at ewr to begin the month. Warmer than all of last December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Good morning everyone, Tuesday Dec 1! No topic yet... but the 5th-6th -possibly into early 7th, looks like a rain storm for most of the forum but may have a little ice for the nw edge of the forum I84 region, ending as an inch or two of snow, especially later Sunday the 6th. Overall a short wave dropping south in the Rockies this morning closes off and marches east this week, opening up a little over the Midwest then closing as it goes by LI Sunday with a surface low modeled-ensembled through PA-LI, intensifying as it moves to the northern New England coast late Sunday or Monday morning. NAEFS 52 member 500 MB heights are modeled to deepen 120 meters/24 hr period between the 5th-7th with the 500 MB vort max of the deepening 500MB system crossing NJ Sunday. The 00z/1 EPS does not have this, leaving too much of the lead short wave behind in the sw USA. It could be right but I don't think so. I expect the future EPS to gravitate to the GEFS/NAEFS solution at 500 MB. New 00z/1 RMOP not yet available to do a reality check. So, despite the 06z/1 GFS OP run, I think this deserves some monitoring - just can't topic it yet due to less severity, wind and storm totals wise, than what occurred yesterday-Nov30. Snowfall, mainly nw edge of the forum---IF that far south. I am looking at it carefully. As many will say, probably not much if anything wintry up there near I84 but I'm not so sure---certainly can see a period of hazardous minor ice or snow. 544A/1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Pretty nice euro run overnight that offers snow chances. The pattern also looks great after the pna ridge rolls forward and we get more of a -epo/-nao pattern 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 December pattern on the cansips now. That’s a quick change 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 The first 8 days of December are averaging 45degs.(41/50). Making it 40degs., or just Normal. EURO is much colder for the period. GFS has not been vaccinated yet. 54*(99%RH) here at 6am, overcast 50* by Noon. 49* by 12:30pm. 48* by 2pm. 47* by 2:30pm. 45* by 3pm. 42* by 7pm. 40* by 10pm. 39* by 10:30pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 1, 2020 Author Share Posted December 1, 2020 The Euro is really struggling with the split flow. Notice how much different the GFS and CMC are at day 10. Remember, the errors at day 7-10 often build into the day 11-15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: The Euro is really struggling with the split flow. Notice how much different the GFS and CMC are at day 10. Remember, the errors at day 7-10 often build into the day 11-15. Those are operational runs at day 10. They will always be changing. Use the ensembles that far out. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 GEFS like the eps is pushing the TPV towards Hudson Bay 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 1, 2020 Author Share Posted December 1, 2020 12 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Those are operational runs at day 10. They will always be changing. Use the ensembles that far out. The OP GFS longer range has had less of a cold bias than the ensembles over SE Canada. Sometimes, the lower resolution ensembles smooth out the ridge near the near the Northeast too much. Where the OP runs don’t. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 With The wave 1 strat hit expect growing confidence of a artic outbreak towards mid month. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 1, 2020 Author Share Posted December 1, 2020 Just now, Allsnow said: With The wave 1 strat hit expect growing confidence of a artic outbreak towards mid month. Those long range strat forecasts for change are very uncertain given how strong the PV has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: Those long range strat forecasts for change are very uncertain given how strong the PV has been. So are day 10 operational models. They are always changing. So much for those Niña southeast ridge calls to start December Gef and eps continue to weaken the SPV by mid month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Cold air side, I am surprised nobody’s talking about most of the first week of December now running above normal. A change from just a few days ago 55F at 7 am. Doing yard work in shorts on 12/1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 1, 2020 Author Share Posted December 1, 2020 6 minutes ago, Allsnow said: So are day 10 operational models. They are always changing. So much for those Niña southeast ridge calls to start December Gef and eps continue to weaken the SPV by mid month. I was pointing out back in the October and early November threads how the atmosphere wasn’t showing the canonical La Niña patterns. We have been experiencing these more Niño-like +AAM spikes since the fall. So I mentioned that we may not follow a typical La Niña November. This is much like the last few years with mismatched Niño and Niño-like influences at the same time. This is due to all the competing record equatorial and off equatorial SST warmth from the Indian Ocean into the Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 9 minutes ago, bluewave said: I was pointing out back in the October and early November threads how the atmosphere wasn’t showing the canonical La Niña patterns. We have been experiencing these more Niño-like +AAM spikes since the fall. So I mentioned that we may not follow a typical La Niña November. This is much like the last few years with mismatched Niño and Niño-like influences at the same time. This is due to all the competing record equatorial and off equatorial SST warmth from the Indian Ocean into the Pacific. With those conflicting signals a wave 1 displacement of the SPV off the pole IMO will lead to a artic outbreak towards mid month. This is something that happen in 13/14 as punches were thrown at the vortex. I’m not calling for a 13/14 winter just that I expect colder air to come. This is supported by the eps and GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Of interest to me and for I84 northward winter weather interests. Note the side by side forecast for 00z/ 7 RMOP confidence (for Sunday evening). Two things... heights are 60 meters or more deeper on the 1/00 run than that of 00z/30. Two: vort max passage s of LI and likely triple point low s of LI... and position of the trough. This increases my confidence on a sizable event and winter weather down very close to I84. added the 3rd frame...the side by side of the previous 11/30 cycle for the second frame, same time. Now you can see. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 6 minutes ago, JoshSnow said: Nobody going to talk bout the euro blizzard? For the far interior? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: With The wave 1 strat hit expect growing confidence of a artic outbreak towards mid month. Best looking pattern we ever had since a long time ago. Hopefully it produces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 7 minutes ago, JoshSnow said: If that depiction occurred it’d be a blizzard across the board! Low is way too close to the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 29 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Best looking pattern we ever had since a long time ago. Hopefully it produces. Looks good on those GFS ENS long rang charts now that you posted at 324 hours but what will actually verify could be different. With this pattern change in progress it is now becoming difficult to even predict what is going to happen at the surface this coming weekend as the EURO and the GFS are completely at odds with one another within 5 days 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 EURO is 0.3" snow and the GFS,CMC are 0.0" for the next 10 days. GFS is blank till the 16th. GFS has had a Trace or better on all these dates at one time or another......Dec. 02,05,07,10,13 now the 16th. This is shotgun forecasting. When you start seeing a period with reliable consecutive sub-freezing High T's----then something may happen. The GEFS doesn't even have a single BN 5-Day period showing. I do think Tampa, Florida's feat of 32 straight months w/o a BN one, could end. All 5-Day periods are BN in Florida. Coney Island Polar Bear Club moving to Florida to demonstrate their superior abilities: LOL 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 1 hour ago, jfklganyc said: Cold air side, I am surprised nobody’s talking about most of the first week of December now running above normal. A change from just a few days ago 55F at 7 am. Doing yard work in shorts on 12/1 Coldest day here on Upton's forecast is next Monday with a high of 43-rest of the days are warmer. Seasonable to slightly above 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Morning thoughts... In the wake of yesterday's storm, it will be partly to mostly cloudy and cooler. Temperatures will hold steady or fall slowly. Likely high temperatures for the remainder of the day around the region (from 8 am and afterward) include: New York City (Central Park): 52° Newark: 51° Philadelphia: 48° The first week of December will likely see the temperature average near or somewhat above normal. 30-Day Verification: New York City (Central Park): Average daily forecast: 58.0° Average temperature: 59.1° Average error: 1.9° Newark: Average daily forecast: 60.3° Average temperature: 60.9° Average error: 1.7° Philadelphia: Average daily forecast: 60.7° Average temperature: 61.2° Average error: 1.5° 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 1 hour ago, bluewave said: I pointed this out over the weekend. Some of the day 11-15 guidance had a cooler start to December. Now the first week of December will average above normal. Unless it's a strong cool down it'll always break warm in the long range. We cannot escape the reality of AGW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Could get another 50+mph wind event sat-sun depending if the low comes a little west. Looks good for eastern LI atm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 I corrected my prior RMOP post with adding the proper previous cycle forecast for 00z/7 as the 3rd frame. Now you can see the difference. Also put it in here... Finally...here is the 06z/1 500 MB GEFS. Pretty confident membership on something sizable PA or NYS (upper low) for 00z/7. Which is it? north of us...probably, but I think there will be a triple point low off NJ. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 6 minutes ago, wdrag said: I corrected my prior RMOP post with adding the proper previous cycle forecast for 00z/7 as the 3rd frame. Now you can see the difference. Also put it in here... Finally...here is the 06z/1 500 MB GEFS. Pretty confident membership on something sizable PA or NYS (upper low) for 00z/7. Which is it? north of us...probably, but I think there will be a triple point low off NJ. Potential for another wind event this weekend gotta see how it trends next few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 12 minutes ago, wdrag said: I corrected my prior RMOP post with adding the proper previous cycle forecast for 00z/7 as the 3rd frame. Now you can see the difference. Also put it in here... Finally...here is the 06z/1 500 MB GEFS. Pretty confident membership on something sizable PA or NYS (upper low) for 00z/7. Which is it? north of us...probably, but I think there will be a triple point low off NJ. You are discounting the 0Z EURO solution for this weekend ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Beautiful weekend on the euro, nasty weekend on GFS really amazing to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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