NEG NAO Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 The 0Z CMC adds another possible scenario later this week - the system crossing the south later in the week stays south - colder air is drawn into the area and then another storm develops along the coast for early next week and the results are below ! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 Break out the shorts for Christmas ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 I would watch the Sunday into Tuesday timeframe. Lots of energy diving into the trough with cold around. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: I would watch the Sunday into Tuesday timeframe. Lots of energy diving into the trough with cold around. Agree especially with the massive teleconnection shifts (+PNA, -AO/NAO) in a stormy direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: Agree especially with the massive teleconnection shifts (+PNA, -AO/NAO) in a stormy direction. Euro is really interesting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 30, 2020 Author Share Posted November 30, 2020 Plenty of spread between the model guidance at 12z. UKMET and CMC are west while GFS and Euro east. Euro may be struggling with holding back too much energy to the SW again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 3 hours ago, Allsnow said: I would watch the Sunday into Tuesday timeframe. Lots of energy diving into the trough with cold around. This is the first period to watch. Virtual snow for bluewave 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 11 minutes ago, bluewave said: Plenty of spread between the model guidance at 12z. UKMET and CMC are west while GFS and Euro east. Euro may be struggling with holding back too much energy to the SW again. That system has no chance to be snow here. The 12z euro doesn’t even have a storm for the 5th now. We need to watch the energy diving into the trough between the 7-8th as that has potential with cold around 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: That system has no chance to be snow here. The 12z euro doesn’t even have a storm for the 5th now. We need to watch the energy diving into the trough between the 7-8th as that has potential with cold around First need to figure out this weekend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 Some real nice looks on the ensemble guidance for December. Both the eps and GEFS have the ridge kissing the west coast going up into the pole 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 30, 2020 Author Share Posted November 30, 2020 29 minutes ago, Allsnow said: That system has no chance to be snow here. The 12z euro doesn’t even have a storm for the 5th now. We need to watch the energy diving into the trough between the 7-8th as that has potential with cold around The 7-8th will depend on the evolution of the storm threat for the 5th. If the storm on the 5th is more amped, then the 7-8th could get suppressed like the CMC shows. Have to see which model gets the evolution on the 5th correct. The Euro may be struggling with hanging too much energy back to the SW again on the 4-5th. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: The 12Z Euro has a storm system off the coast BUT on this run upper levels support some form of frozen in NYC metro but the 2m temps are too warm here That’s not the storm he is talking about. The storm for the 5th is a non event on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: This is the first period to watch. Virtual snow for bluewave @NEG NAO closer look at the system the euro has. If we get the northern stream to dive in then it can work. The southern energy alone won’t cut it with temps 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 10 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: The 12Z Euro has a storm system off the coast BUT on this run upper levels support some form of frozen in NYC metro but the 2m temps are too warm here Euro gave the city a few inches with next weeks storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: @NEG NAO closer look at the system the euro has. If we get the northern stream to dive in then it can work. The southern energy alone won’t cut it with temps Need a phase Eps and gefs look really good moving forward. PNA transitions into a negative epo. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Need a phase Eps and gefs look really good moving forward. PNA transitions into a negative epo. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 7 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: where do you see that ???? That’s the gfs 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 6 minutes ago, Allsnow said: PB posted the weeklies on the other forum Looks pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 30, 2020 Author Share Posted November 30, 2020 Longer range, we need to watch for the ridge east of New England verifying stronger than forecast. This has been the pattern for a while now. Today is just the most recent case. 7 day Forecast Verification 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Need to refire my engines Wednesday morning looking to between the 5th and 8th, seeing if there is any predictability, and.... close out the wind/rain topic (ending as snow Poconos). 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 GEFS Extended has already surrendered the 20" 30_Day_Total---it recently indicated for the Control Member---and dropped it to 8" (all from a single event on the 13th) which means 0" total. Atlanta GA is doing better at this moment with snow flurries and a drop down to 28* by morning, than we might over the next two weeks. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 2 hours ago, JoshSnow said: It’s coming! Who knows, maybe we'll get the elusive triple phaser this year! Has any research been done to see which ENSO phase is most likely during triple phasers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 1 hour ago, CIK62 said: GEFS Extended has already surrendered the 20" 30_Day_Total---it recently indicated for the Control Member---and dropped it to 8" (all from a single event on the 13th) which means 0" total. Atlanta GA is doing better at this moment with snow flurries and a drop down to 28* by morning, than we might over the next two weeks. It was 37 and snowing in Birmingham Alabama also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 1 hour ago, CIK62 said: GEFS Extended has already surrendered the 20" 30_Day_Total---it recently indicated for the Control Member---and dropped it to 8" (all from a single event on the 13th) which means 0" total. Atlanta GA is doing better at this moment with snow flurries and a drop down to 28* by morning, than we might over the next two weeks. It’s silly to look at that extended model with any type of seriousness 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Another solution from the gfs for next week's storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Another solution from the gfs for next week's storm no snow for you 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 1 minute ago, forkyfork said: no snow for you Um okay ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Cmc and the GFS has a coastal. Warm for the coast but interior areas look good. Hopefully the Euro shows this and we can trend colder with a better phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 we need a well timed phase to overcome a crappy airmass well away from peak climo. gl 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now