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December 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread


bluewave
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17 hours ago, bluewave said:

If the past is any guide, then NYC may have to wait until later January or February for its next 6”+ snowstorm. There have been 9 years with a 6”+ event in NYC between December 1st and the 20th since 1930. The good news is that all of the 9 years did get at least one follow up warning level event. We would have to go back to 1926-1927 for the most recent year with no further 6”+ events in the season.

NYC December 6”+ snowstorms before the solstice in December and the date of the next event

12-20-09......2-10-10

12-05-03.....1-27-04

12-5-02.......2-17-03

12-19-95.......1-7-96

12-11-60........1-19-61

12-3-57..........2-15-58

12-19-48.......2-28-49

12-19-45........2-20-46

12-18-32........2-11-33

 

 

lol looking at this list, the most recent entries were all blockbuster winters,  (everything from 48-49 and later)....the earliest two not so much.

A majority of them seemed to happen in February and in the middle of winter you dont need a perfect pattern to get a 6" storm....in 07-08 we got 6-8 in an SSW event that changed to drizzle at the end.

 

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14 hours ago, Rjay said:

 

Yup to all of it.    Good post.  

He vastly oversimplified and you know as well as I do how "one size doesn't fit all".  Weather doesn't just go "west to east"- it also goes south to north (coastals) and north to south (arctic highs) and southwest to northeast (colorado lows) and northwest to southeast (clippers).  The reason why weather is inherently unpredictable is because it's so complex and doesn't follow a simple set of rules like that.  The inherent uncertainly about weather is the reason why making absolute statements is just plain dumb.

 

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On 12/26/2020 at 10:23 PM, MJO812 said:

Last really warm Christmas was 2015 with 65 degrees.

That winter wasn't good except for the big blizzard in 2016. We did have 11 inches in December 2015.

I think we will get some snow next week and a big one at the end of Jan.

Wait what, we had 11 inches of snow in December 2015?  You must be remembering that December wrong lol.

 

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16 hours ago, wdrag said:

Now that we have a day or two of relative downtime, I've started a new topic in MET 101- a concern of mine is bleeding/muting the appropriate use of weather terminology.  We have by and large, my guess, is at least 80% routine weather days. Then there are the High Impact events.

One of these are arctic outbreaks.  It is my opinion, that we tend to apply the term arctic too frequently, reducing it's valued application in truly very cold, wind chill warning (not advisory) criteria situations.

If you're interested, it's all in MET 101. Have a day!

I also dont like the terms "average" and "significant" oh and then there's "impactful"  this is more an issue I have media than anything else though.

 

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I was looking up NYC historical snowfall climatology and I found this ridiculous page lol

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_of_New_York_City#:~:text=Snowfall is now a rare,is exposed to the Atlantic.

The city can be prone to extremes. Snowfall is now a rare occurrence in the city, on average occurring on only 12 days per year, and it is infrequently heavy.   I can get behind the "infrequently heavy part" but not the "is now a rare occurrence in the city" part.  That statement may be true 20 years from now but not yet.

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The last 4 days of December are averaging 38degs.(32/43).       Making it 36degs., or +2.0.

Month to date is  39.2[+1.2].       December should end near 38.7degs.

No snow on any model.    CMC is a T on Jan 03.       GFS still with 8 50-Degree Days incoming, during the next 16 days.     Only tomorrow of the next 16 days is BN.

GEFS Extended Control has only a T of Snow for the next 30 days.       The mean is given at 8" and is to be expected.      Some members have record sub-zero lows during last 10 days of January----but this has been slipping forward continuously for weeks.       Given a chance it would show a low of 40 for July Fourth.

SE Ridge Pitches Near Perfect Shutout: ??????         Goes the Distance----90 Days!   LOL

th.NMME_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season1.png

43*(84%RH) here at 6am.      Low was 36* at Midnite.        47* by Noon.      49* by 2pm.      50* at 2:30pm.       51* at 3pm.      52* was High at 3:30pm.

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6 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I was looking up NYC historical snowfall climatology and I found this ridiculous page lol

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_of_New_York_City#:~:text=Snowfall is now a rare,is exposed to the Atlantic.

The city can be prone to extremes. Snowfall is now a rare occurrence in the city, on average occurring on only 12 days per year, and it is infrequently heavy.   I can get behind the "infrequently heavy part" but not the "is now a rare occurrence in the city" part.  That statement may be true 20 years from now but not yet.

I would say to the average person, it is true. Even before the last two seasons, we entered into a very warm paradigm that saw larger storms drop snow and quickly melt.

The February storm 3 years ago comes to mind. It got cold for the storm. The week before and after were ridiculously warm. It was gone before sunset in the city

Someone above mentioned 2015 with rose colored glasses. What a disaster of a winter! Starting with the Nino Dec. The biggest storm ever was gone in one week! Had that storm not occurred, the city had 2 inches of snow for the year.

To the average person looking out their window, reading Wikipedia, Seeing snow on the ground in New York City is increasingly rare.

A recent storm that stuck around for 7 days cures all ills; but that is increasingly rare

 

 

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7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

it's actually better for us if it happens later.  I was thinking 5-10 but you're saying 10-15 is more likely?  Don what do you think of this "threat" on the 3rd?  I think it's a bit too soon, the models sometimes jump on something too quickly.

 

I suspect that the frozen precipitation threat is well north of the big cities on January 3. Somewhere between Poughkeepsie and Albany might have a good chance of seeing ice and/or at least some snow.

As for the transition, it’s still there on the overnight guidance. Sometimes, the guidance rushes things. At that time, the stratosphere will likely be cooling from what was a significant, but not major warming event. The zonal winds are forecast to reverse at 1 mb and 10 mb, but not 30 mb. The polar vortex will be weakening dramatically. 

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18 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

For what?  Another rainstorm?

Still have a lot of time for changes -Actually the 12Z GFS moved closer to the Para - GFS solution at 12Z before it moves east because the previous storm is blocking it out to sea - also on the Para it changes to snow after starting as a mixgfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_27.pngprateptype_cat.conus.png

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Thought I'd throw this in here... Christmas break project - Downloaded the full climo data set for CPK with a goal of creating some simple, easy to navigate data sets and visualizations... As soon as I started I realize "I should wait until this weekend and have all of 2020... :axe:

So until then, here's monthly and seasonal snow totals, sortable...

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13 minutes ago, hooralph said:

Thought I'd throw this in here... Christmas break project - Downloaded the full climo data set for CPK with a goal of creating some simple, easy to navigate data sets and visualizations... As soon as I started I realize "I should wait until this weekend and have all of 2020... :axe:

So until then, here's monthly and seasonal snow totals, sortable...

Fantastic work, Hooralph.

When you have time, you might want to check 1898-99. It seems to be off.

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf

Have a great New Year.

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13 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Fantastic work, Hooralph.

When you have time, you might want to check 1898-99. It seems to be off.

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf

Have a great New Year.

Thanks, Don! 

That's odd... I'll have to look at the raw data. This is an ingestion of the raw daily data from NOAA Climate Data Online. The only transformation i did was to decode the years to be a snowfall season and it appears to have worked overall. (i.e. so Jan '96 is part of the 1995-1996 season).

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