LibertyBell Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 17 hours ago, bluewave said: If the past is any guide, then NYC may have to wait until later January or February for its next 6”+ snowstorm. There have been 9 years with a 6”+ event in NYC between December 1st and the 20th since 1930. The good news is that all of the 9 years did get at least one follow up warning level event. We would have to go back to 1926-1927 for the most recent year with no further 6”+ events in the season. NYC December 6”+ snowstorms before the solstice in December and the date of the next event 12-20-09......2-10-10 12-05-03.....1-27-04 12-5-02.......2-17-03 12-19-95.......1-7-96 12-11-60........1-19-61 12-3-57..........2-15-58 12-19-48.......2-28-49 12-19-45........2-20-46 12-18-32........2-11-33 lol looking at this list, the most recent entries were all blockbuster winters, (everything from 48-49 and later)....the earliest two not so much. A majority of them seemed to happen in February and in the middle of winter you dont need a perfect pattern to get a 6" storm....in 07-08 we got 6-8 in an SSW event that changed to drizzle at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 14 hours ago, Rjay said: Yup to all of it. Good post. He vastly oversimplified and you know as well as I do how "one size doesn't fit all". Weather doesn't just go "west to east"- it also goes south to north (coastals) and north to south (arctic highs) and southwest to northeast (colorado lows) and northwest to southeast (clippers). The reason why weather is inherently unpredictable is because it's so complex and doesn't follow a simple set of rules like that. The inherent uncertainly about weather is the reason why making absolute statements is just plain dumb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 On 12/26/2020 at 10:23 PM, MJO812 said: Last really warm Christmas was 2015 with 65 degrees. That winter wasn't good except for the big blizzard in 2016. We did have 11 inches in December 2015. I think we will get some snow next week and a big one at the end of Jan. Wait what, we had 11 inches of snow in December 2015? You must be remembering that December wrong lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 16 hours ago, wdrag said: Now that we have a day or two of relative downtime, I've started a new topic in MET 101- a concern of mine is bleeding/muting the appropriate use of weather terminology. We have by and large, my guess, is at least 80% routine weather days. Then there are the High Impact events. One of these are arctic outbreaks. It is my opinion, that we tend to apply the term arctic too frequently, reducing it's valued application in truly very cold, wind chill warning (not advisory) criteria situations. If you're interested, it's all in MET 101. Have a day! I also dont like the terms "average" and "significant" oh and then there's "impactful" this is more an issue I have media than anything else though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 I was looking up NYC historical snowfall climatology and I found this ridiculous page lol https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_of_New_York_City#:~:text=Snowfall is now a rare,is exposed to the Atlantic. The city can be prone to extremes. Snowfall is now a rare occurrence in the city, on average occurring on only 12 days per year, and it is infrequently heavy. I can get behind the "infrequently heavy part" but not the "is now a rare occurrence in the city" part. That statement may be true 20 years from now but not yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 The last 4 days of December are averaging 38degs.(32/43). Making it 36degs., or +2.0. Month to date is 39.2[+1.2]. December should end near 38.7degs. No snow on any model. CMC is a T on Jan 03. GFS still with 8 50-Degree Days incoming, during the next 16 days. Only tomorrow of the next 16 days is BN. GEFS Extended Control has only a T of Snow for the next 30 days. The mean is given at 8" and is to be expected. Some members have record sub-zero lows during last 10 days of January----but this has been slipping forward continuously for weeks. Given a chance it would show a low of 40 for July Fourth. SE Ridge Pitches Near Perfect Shutout: ?????? Goes the Distance----90 Days! LOL 43*(84%RH) here at 6am. Low was 36* at Midnite. 47* by Noon. 49* by 2pm. 50* at 2:30pm. 51* at 3pm. 52* was High at 3:30pm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 6 hours ago, LibertyBell said: I was looking up NYC historical snowfall climatology and I found this ridiculous page lol https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_of_New_York_City#:~:text=Snowfall is now a rare,is exposed to the Atlantic. The city can be prone to extremes. Snowfall is now a rare occurrence in the city, on average occurring on only 12 days per year, and it is infrequently heavy. I can get behind the "infrequently heavy part" but not the "is now a rare occurrence in the city" part. That statement may be true 20 years from now but not yet. I would say to the average person, it is true. Even before the last two seasons, we entered into a very warm paradigm that saw larger storms drop snow and quickly melt. The February storm 3 years ago comes to mind. It got cold for the storm. The week before and after were ridiculously warm. It was gone before sunset in the city Someone above mentioned 2015 with rose colored glasses. What a disaster of a winter! Starting with the Nino Dec. The biggest storm ever was gone in one week! Had that storm not occurred, the city had 2 inches of snow for the year. To the average person looking out their window, reading Wikipedia, Seeing snow on the ground in New York City is increasingly rare. A recent storm that stuck around for 7 days cures all ills; but that is increasingly rare 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Morning thoughts... Today will be partly cloudy and mild. Temperatures will likely top out in the upper 40s and lower 50s across most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 50° Newark: 50° Philadelphia: 50° Tomorrow will be fair and seasonably cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 7 hours ago, LibertyBell said: it's actually better for us if it happens later. I was thinking 5-10 but you're saying 10-15 is more likely? Don what do you think of this "threat" on the 3rd? I think it's a bit too soon, the models sometimes jump on something too quickly. I suspect that the frozen precipitation threat is well north of the big cities on January 3. Somewhere between Poughkeepsie and Albany might have a good chance of seeing ice and/or at least some snow. As for the transition, it’s still there on the overnight guidance. Sometimes, the guidance rushes things. At that time, the stratosphere will likely be cooling from what was a significant, but not major warming event. The zonal winds are forecast to reverse at 1 mb and 10 mb, but not 30 mb. The polar vortex will be weakening dramatically. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 If someone looks at this , they would say wow , the pattern looks great. The AO is in a freefall , NAO is also dropping and PNA is stable. The problem is the epo which is really screwing us over . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 49 minutes ago, MJO812 said: If someone looks at this , they would say wow , the pattern looks great. The AO is in a freefall , NAO is also dropping and PNA is stable. The problem is the epo which is really screwing us over . Do you have the EPO forecast?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 52 minutes ago, mikem81 said: Do you have the EPO forecast?? The EPO is positive and is forecast to soar to strongly positive levels early in the first week of January on the EPS. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Still at the mercy of the pac on all the guidance. Close the shades for two weeks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 21 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Still at the mercy of the pac on all the guidance. Close the shades for two weeks With a chance of snow next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: It keeps correcting even more positive. The chart is courtesy of Bamwx. Don't discount the NAO even with a positive epo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Para gfs is still consistent. Regular gfs hopped on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Just now, MJO812 said: Para gfs is still consistent. Regular gfs hopped on board. For what? Another rainstorm? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 7 minutes ago, bluewave said: It keeps correcting even more positive. The chart is courtesy of Bamwx. Interesting... Look where it was during the week of the snowstorm (Dec 17th). Makes no sense.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Para gfs is still consistent. Regular gfs hopped on board. GFS is still OTS but slightly closer.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, mikem81 said: GFS is still OTS but slightly closer.... Yep This is going to be a thread the needle event since the pacific is bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 27 minutes ago, MJO812 said: With a chance of snow next week Horrible setup. That’s going to be a complete non event 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Horrible setup. That’s going to be a complete non event Okay You have a magic ball? Its all about spacing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 16 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Don't discount the NAO even with a positive epo The NAO block is too far south, it’s linking up with the WAR, so it does us no good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 18 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: For what? Another rainstorm? Still have a lot of time for changes -Actually the 12Z GFS moved closer to the Para - GFS solution at 12Z before it moves east because the previous storm is blocking it out to sea - also on the Para it changes to snow after starting as a mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 GFS close to nice setup for Jan 4/5, with cold (not arctic; but cold) high in southern Canada, 50/50 low, and robust coastal low...still less than a 50/50 chance, but certainly looking better and should be on the radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Thought I'd throw this in here... Christmas break project - Downloaded the full climo data set for CPK with a goal of creating some simple, easy to navigate data sets and visualizations... As soon as I started I realize "I should wait until this weekend and have all of 2020... So until then, here's monthly and seasonal snow totals, sortable... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 13 minutes ago, hooralph said: Thought I'd throw this in here... Christmas break project - Downloaded the full climo data set for CPK with a goal of creating some simple, easy to navigate data sets and visualizations... As soon as I started I realize "I should wait until this weekend and have all of 2020... So until then, here's monthly and seasonal snow totals, sortable... Fantastic work, Hooralph. When you have time, you might want to check 1898-99. It seems to be off. https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf Have a great New Year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 13 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Fantastic work, Hooralph. When you have time, you might want to check 1898-99. It seems to be off. https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf Have a great New Year. Thanks, Don! That's odd... I'll have to look at the raw data. This is an ingestion of the raw daily data from NOAA Climate Data Online. The only transformation i did was to decode the years to be a snowfall season and it appears to have worked overall. (i.e. so Jan '96 is part of the 1995-1996 season). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Here comes the euro for the 3rd Just missed but it was close 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 9 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Here comes the euro for the 3rd What is it showing? Just saw a tweet saying it was showing a miss, nothing. Not around my computer right now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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