December 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

Today will be mostly sunny and cold. Temperatures will likely top out in the lower 30s across most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 32°

Newark: 33°

Philadelphia: 33°

Tomorrow will be fair and somewhat milder.

Some final high temperatures in eastern Canada yesterday included: Cape-Chat, QC: 63°; Mary’s Harbour, NL: 51°; Quebec City: 51°.

[snowman19]

20 minutes ago, rclab said:

The message always seems to be sent. I wonder when or if it will ever be heard. As always ......

The new ensembles are a train wreck in the long range, the PAC side looks really awful and they show the -NAO block setting up way too far south and linking up to the WAR. They have been looking progressively worse since the Wednesday night runs

[Dan76]

It's like ground hog day

[MJO812]

20 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The new ensembles are a train wreck in the long range, the PAC side looks really awful and they show the -NAO block setting up way too far south and linking up to the WAR. They have been looking progressively worse since the Wednesday night runs

You gave up on winter early this month

[Dan76]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

You gave up on winter early this month

Cutting his loses 

[NYC10023]

40 minutes ago, Dan76 said:

It's like ground hog day

pretty much sums up 2020; in all respects.

[SnoSki14]

The teleconnections do not agree with the ensembles at all. 

Very odd to see

[Vice-Regent]

14 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

The teleconnections do not agree with the ensembles at all. 

Very odd to see

Do I need to explain this stuff again? First of all it's a La Nina and secondly we just had our warmest November on record globally by a lot.

[MJO812]

 

 AO and NAO haven't been negative in years and yet the PNA screws us.

 

Unbeliveable 

[HeadInTheClouds]

Funny how certain people are throwing in the towel again. Blah blah blah. Central park stands at 10.5( I got 16) and same prognosticators were throwing in the towel in early December, lol. Still a long way to go. 

[eduggs]

10 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Funny how certain people are throwing in the towel again. Blah blah blah. Central park stands at 10.5( I got 16) and same prognosticators were throwing in the towel in early December, lol. Still a long way to go. 

The immediate NYC area got a little lucky in terms of snowfall on Dec 17.  Lots of areas surrounding the City received noticeably less.

[HeadInTheClouds]

6 minutes ago, eduggs said:

The immediate NYC area got a little lucky in terms of snowfall on Dec 17.  Lots of areas surrounding the City received noticeably less.

Tricky rain/snow lines are a part of many storms in this area. A lot of places just north and west of NYC got a foot or more. My point stands. You cant throw in the towel in early December or late December for that matter. Same posters do it all the time. Yawn. 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Vice-Regent said:

Do I need to explain this stuff again? First of all it's a La Nina and secondly we just had our warmest November on record globally by a lot.

mild Novembers have historically been linked to snowy seasons, we had six out of six up between 55-56 and 93-94.  A lot better than getting a prewinter snowfall at any rate.  as for la ninas; some of our snowiest Decembers and Januarys have happened during La Ninas.  I like La Nina for the early part of the season a lot better than El Ninos.  

If you want to look at what's really going on, it all has to do with that warm water off the north Pacific.  But the bridge jumping is hilarious, the 5-10 period is the one to look at and the people who twist and turn with each model run are hilarious (as if these models are even remotely accurate at that time range.)

 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, HeadInTheClouds said:

Tricky rain/snow lines are a part of many storms in this area. A lot of places just north and west of NYC got a foot or more. My point stands. You cant throw in the towel in early December or late December for that matter. Same posters do it all the time. Yawn. 

It's comical how they twist and turn with each model run.  And even the south shore here got about 8 inches.....and the snow lasted for over a week.  Nothing to whine about over.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

NYC currently near the top of the snowfall range for such a mild 39.0° to 40.0° December.  This will be one of the warmest Decembers in the 10”-13” snowfall range.
 

	2020	40.0	10.5
	1999	39.9	T
	1889	39.7	6.0
	1991	39.6	0.7
	1987	39.5	2.6
	1911	39.5	8.5
	1949	39.4	1.3
-	1918	39.4	0.3
	1974	39.3	0.1
-	1928	39.3	2.0
-	1912	39.3	11.4
	1951	39.1	3.3
-	1932	39.1	9.4
	1986	39.0	0.6
-	1973	39.0	2.8
-	1881	39.0	1.3

 

	2000	13.4	31.1
	1896	13.0	34.4
	2009	12.4	35.9
	1876	12.3	25.0
	1926	11.7	28.9
	1995	11.5	32.4
-	1880	11.5	26.4
	1912	11.4	39.3
-	1890	11.4	30.0
	1963	11.3	31.2
	2002	11.0	36.0
	1884	10.7	33.6
	2020	10.5	40.0
	1886	10.3	29.7
	1874	10.1	34.4

I wonder when the last time was that we had a cold December lol, they dont seem to happen all that much.

 

[bluewave]

40 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I wonder when the last time was that we had a cold December lol, they dont seem to happen all that much.

 

2017 was the only cold December out of the last 10. That’s what it took to produce my favorite first week of January snowstorm over the last 10 years. That was the famous 950mb benchmark blizzard on 1-4-18.

 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Dec	Departure
Mean	40.6	+3.1
2020	40.0	?
2019	38.3	+0.8
2018	40.1	+2.6
2017	35.0	-2.5
2016	38.3	+0.8
2015	50.8	+13.3
2014	40.5	+3.0
2013	38.5	+1.0
2012	41.5	+4.0
2011	43.3	+5.8

[LibertyBell]

20 minutes ago, bluewave said:

2017 was the only cold December out of the last 10. That’s what it took to produce my favorite first week of January snowstorm over the last 10 years. That was the famous 950mb benchmark blizzard on 1-4-18.

 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Dec	Departure
Mean	40.6	+3.1
2020	40.0	?
2019	38.3	+0.8
2018	40.1	+2.6
2017	35.0	-2.5
2016	38.3	+0.8
2015	50.8	+13.3
2014	40.5	+3.0
2013	38.5	+1.0
2012	41.5	+4.0
2011	43.3	+5.8

The one that set the surge records in Boston and was like a 50% version of the Jan 2016 blizzard (because it had three hours of verified blizzard conditions at JFK, while Jan 2016 had six).  We had white out conditions all day during that storm in Jan 2018!  I think that was one of two major snow storms that winter.

Those 30 year December averages are going to be significantly higher when they get calculated at the end of the month.

 

 

[MJO812]

 

On 12/9/2020 at 9:53 PM, DTWXRISK said:

wooof    monster  -NAO   if its  correct
 

=(

On 12/18/2020 at 11:25 AM, Allsnow said:

More snow is coming...the Niña is done 

 

 

 

Any news ?

[Allsnow]

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

 

=(

Any news ?

It’s going to snow again. I’m not sure why this was bumped. The winter of 2020 isn’t walking through the door. 
 

I warned you for days now that the pac would mess this block up. But you choose to listen to twitter and hype 

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

It’s going to snow again. I’m not sure why this was bumped. The winter of 2020 isn’t walking through the door. 
 

I warned you for days now that the pac would mess this block up. But you choose to listen to twitter and hype 

I listened to many on this forum , the other forum you are on and alot others. 

[eduggs]

3 hours ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Tricky rain/snow lines are a part of many storms in this area. A lot of places just north and west of NYC got a foot or more. My point stands. You cant throw in the towel in early December or late December for that matter. Same posters do it all the time. Yawn. 

Past snowfalls cannot predict future snowfalls no matter what some wannabe statisticians say. So I agree nobody should be throwing in the towel. Snow events often come unexpectedly. And you're right that most of the area has already received a moderate to major snowfall event. I would just caution against using snowfall totals from any specific location to make general claims. It seems like you're saying the same thing. In parts of the mid-Hudson valley 12/17 was a major event.  And in some parts of C and NNJ it was barely a moderate event.

[winterwx21]

Long range forecasting is so difficult that it's not worth getting worked up over anything beyond a week. The skill level is just too low to be accurate much beyond a week. Not long ago the long range stuff indicated that early January looked promising, but now it's looking ugly instead. But we saw something similar awhile back when looking at mid December. For awhile the models showed a good period for mid December, but then there was a period of several days where they took it away. However they brought back the good look, and we ended up getting a major snowstorm. Right now early January doesn't look good, but a few days from now we could be looking at something completely different. Who knows. As I said, the long range skill level still isn't very good. It's especially difficult right now because we have blocking, but also an unfavorable Pacific. With mixed signals, the models are gonna have a hard time. So it's really hard to tell what's gonna happen in the first third of January.

[snowman19]

46 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

It’s going to snow again. I’m not sure why this was bumped. The winter of 2020 isn’t walking through the door. 
 

I warned you for days now that the pac would mess this block up. But you choose to listen to twitter and hype 

^This. I think some people forget that weather moves west to east in the Northern Hemisphere sometimes. If the PAC absolutely sucks, you are f-ed (excuse my language). I don’t care what the Atlantic and arctic are doing. The PAC trumps the NAO and AO.  All -NAO and -AO does when the PAC sucks, is trap PAC garbage air under the block. That, and the fact that the depicted -NAO block is way too far south and is hooking itself up with the WAR is another problem in itself. As far as the “SSW” and “SPV split” hype going on right now on social media, please spare us. We’ve seen this movie before and we know how it ends. It’s the same cast of weenie characters hyping the same SSW’s and SPV splits winter after winter, after winter, with no understanding of how they actually work or happen

[HeadInTheClouds]

23 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Past snowfalls cannot predict future snowfalls no matter what some wannabe statisticians say. So I agree nobody should be throwing in the towel. Snow events often come unexpectedly. And you're right that most of the area has already received a moderate to major snowfall event. I would just caution against using snowfall totals from any specific location to make general claims. It seems like you're saying the same thing. In parts of the mid-Hudson valley 12/17 was a major event.  And in some parts of C and NNJ it was barely a moderate event.

What I'm saying is people should not be throwing in the towel on winter in December. Same cast of characters do the same thing every year when the next 10 days don't look so hot. We already had 1 significant event for most of the tri-state when some were calling winter over on Dec 4th. Comical. Plenty of winter to go. 

[NEG NAO]

9 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

What I'm saying is people should not be throwing in the towel on winter in December. Same cast of characters do the same thing every year when the next 10 days don't look so hot. We already had 1 significant event for most of the tri-state when some were calling winter over on Dec 4th. Comical. Plenty of winter to go. 

In addition take a look at previous seasons when NYC received over 10 in. of snow in December and report back....

[Brian5671]

32 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

In addition take a look at previous seasons when NYC received over 10 in. of snow in December and report back....

people expect endless cold and snow around here.   Not the way it really happens at our latitude...Agree on December snow-we'll likely come out at least average for the season based on history....

[HeadInTheClouds]

45 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

In addition take a look at previous seasons when NYC received over 10 in. of snow in December and report back....

Oh I know, we have had some great winters when that has happened. 

monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf

[jm1220]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

The one that set the surge records in Boston and was like a 50% version of the Jan 2016 blizzard (because it had three hours of verified blizzard conditions at JFK, while Jan 2016 had six).  We had white out conditions all day during that storm in Jan 2018!  I think that was one of two major snow storms that winter.

Those 30 year December averages are going to be significantly higher when they get calculated at the end of the month.

 

 

1/3/18 was one of the most ferocious blizzards I’ve been in for sure. 

[donsutherland1]

Near sunset today:

[CIK62]

GFS  getting hotter all the time.      It has lost all snow and has 6 50's incoming over the next 16 days.       Just eyeing this 16 day array I would say its a +10.      I think today was as cold as it will be for a long time.      Some SSWE!

OK     The burning truth is that  Jan.01-11, eleven days is:    44(37/51)  +11.         My LaCrosse Transporter has malfunctioned and I have been deposited back in Jan. 2020 @+6.5.

JB and SD still say it will be cold and stormy again soon.