LibertyBell Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 9 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: The Op GFS had another “glorious” run at 12Z. It basically just continually repeats the same thing over and over Day 7-16 which is almost certainly wrong but it’s funny how many torch cutter Op runs it’s continued to have while the ensembles argue for something totally different new years event looks like heavy rain minus the extreme winds of this event (since it cuts further to the west), that might be the one to realign the pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 8 hours ago, bluewave said: The oddity this month for NYC is how mild it has been for a December with a 10”+ snowstorm. Most other Decembers were much colder. But warm and snowy has been a new theme that has emerged since the mid 2000’s. 2020...39.3...so far 2010...32.8 2009...35.9 2003...37.6 2000...31.1 1960...30.9 1948...38.3 1947...34.0 1933....32.7 1916....34.0 1912....39.3 1872....26.7 I dont think many are complaining it's the best of both worlds. The worst of both worlds? Cold and dry like December 1989 was (and most of the Januarys in the 1980s) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 8 hours ago, bluewave said: The oddity this month for NYC is how mild it has been for a December with a 10”+ snowstorm. Most other Decembers were much colder. But warm and snowy has been a new theme that has emerged since the mid 2000’s. 2020...39.3...so far 2010...32.8 2009...35.9 2003...37.6 2000...31.1 1960...30.9 1948...38.3 1947...34.0 1933....32.7 1916....34.0 1912....39.3 1872....26.7 wild that we matched Dec 1912....when did that month have its 10" snowfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: wild that we matched Dec 1912....when did that month have its 10" snowfall? 12/24...11.4"...the only year with a ten inch snowfall in Dec without another near 6" snowfall or bigger after December... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 4 minutes ago, uncle W said: 12/24...11.4"...the only year with a ten inch snowfall in Dec without another near 6" snowfall or bigger after December... damn the night before Christmas? I bet that was our one and only 10"+ Xmas eve into Xmas day snowfall! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 28 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: damn the night before Christmas? I bet that was our one and only 10"+ Xmas eve into Xmas day snowfall! well 1883 had 8" on the 24th...after a 12 hour lull another 5" fell Christmas day... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 1 hour ago, uncle W said: well 1883 had 8" on the 24th...after a 12 hour lull another 5" fell Christmas day... sounds like we had some pretty interesting storms back then, two significant storms 12 hours apart aren't something I've experienced before (the closest was in Feb 1994 when they were about a day apart.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: sounds like we had some pretty interesting storms back then, two significant storms 12 hours apart aren't something I've experienced before (the closest was in Feb 1994 when they were about a day apart.) Dec 5-6th 2003 had two days with snow with a few hours of nothing...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 3 minutes ago, uncle W said: Dec 5-6th 2003 had two days with snow with a few hours of nothing...? Yeah but wasn't that all from one storm? We had the same thing in Jan 2011 but I believe both Dec 2003 and Jan 2011 were from one storm with a lull in between A 12 or 24 hr gap sounds like two different storms. That's why I brought up Feb 1994 that was two different storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 The last 7 days of December are averaging 39degs.(32/46). Making it 35degs., or (+1.0). Month to date is 39.8(+1.3). December should end between 38.7---39.6. Uncorrected(GFS), for the first 10 days of January looks horrible, at an average of 41(35/47), or +8.0. All models are snowless. 53*(98%RH) here at 6am, down from 58* at 3am. 52* by Noon. 49* by 2pm. 47* at 2:30pm. 45* at 3pm. 42* at 4pm 37* by 6pm. 35* by 8pm. 33* by 9pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 25, 2020 Author Share Posted December 25, 2020 First December for NYC with 10”+ of snow and a 60°Christmas. It was also the first 7 year period with 3 years reaching 60° or warmer on Christmas. Data for December 25 - NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature Precipitation Dec Snowfall 2015-12-25 66 57 0.01 T 1982-12-25 64 41 0.02 3.0 1889-12-25 64 43 0.00 6.0 2014-12-25 62 44 0.09 1.0 1940-12-25 62 38 0.00 3.0 1979-12-25 61 50 0.87 3.5 2020-12-25 61 10.5 1964-12-25 60 49 T 3.1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: First December for NYC with 10”+ of snow and a 60°Christmas. It was also the first 7 year period with 3 years reaching 60° or warmer on Christmas. Data for December 25 - NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature Precipitation Dec Snowfall 2015-12-25 66 57 0.01 T 1982-12-25 64 41 0.02 3.0 1889-12-25 64 43 0.00 6.0 2014-12-25 62 44 0.09 1.0 1940-12-25 62 38 0.00 3.0 1979-12-25 61 50 0.87 3.5 2020-12-25 61 10.5 1964-12-25 60 49 T 3.1 Very ugly overnight runs on the ensembles all the way out to the end of the runs, Bluewave. The GEFS and GEPS were particularly hideous. EPS was pretty bad too just not as awful as the other 2..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 25, 2020 Author Share Posted December 25, 2020 27 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Very ugly overnight runs on the ensembles all the way out to the end of the runs, Bluewave. The GEFS and GEPS were particularly hideous. EPS was pretty bad too just not as awful as the other 2..... Yeah, the Pacific Jet will continue to dominate into late December. It will be interesting to see if the SSW verifies. If it does, then we’ll have to wait and see if it benefits Eurasia or North America. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 Morning thoughts... As of 7 am, record high temperatures had fallen in Bangor and Montreal. Burlington had tied its record high temperature. The mercury was also likely to push to record levels in Quebec City and Caribou in coming hours. Rain will come to an end later this morning or this afternoon in eastern sections of the region after a general 1.00”-2.00” soaking. The temperature will gradually fall from 7 am figures as the front pushes eastward. At 7 am, temperatures were generally in the middle and upper 50s across most of the region. 7 am temperatures included: New York City (Central Park): 55° Newark: 56° Philadelphia: 56° Tomorrow will be fair with highs in the 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 Amazing since 2014 we have had 3 Christmas with temps over 60.I don't know if it's bad luck or global warming or both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 25, 2020 Author Share Posted December 25, 2020 POU sets a new December 25th record high of 65°. This makes it the greatest 140 hr temperature rise there for December. The low between hours on the 19th was -3°missing the record low by 1°. So this would make a 68° temperature rise. The chart below only does hourly readings. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=169&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=POU&hours=140&month=dec&dir=warm&dpi=100&_fmt=png RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 835 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2020 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT POUGHKEEPSIE NY... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 65 WAS SET AT POUGHKEEPSIE NY TODAY AT 400 AM. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 63 SET IN 1964. CLIMATE REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 435 PM EST SAT DEC 19 2020 ................................... ...THE POUGHKEEPSIE NY CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR DECEMBER 19 2020... VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME. CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD: 1981 TO 2010 CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD: 1931 TO 2020 WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR NORMAL ................................................................... TEMPERATURE (F) TODAY MAXIMUM 26 3:08 PM 60 1931 39 -13 25 MINIMUM -3 7:39 AM -4 1989 21 -24 14 AVERAGE 12 30 -18 20 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 58 minutes ago, KEITH L.I said: Amazing since 2014 we have had 3 Christmas with temps over 60.I don't know if it's bad luck or global warming or both. we missed by one week having a great Chistmas storm...1964 was a shock to me after five straight years with snow for Christmas...near 70 Christmas day in Newark...three straight 60 degree days in a row...January 65 was a good month with snow on four straight week ends...bad luck kept this month from being memorable... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 Received .72 inches of rain with a max wind gust at 47 mph (at 3am) at my station in Sheepshead Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 The models started shifting away from us on December 15 and just keep going in the wrong direction. It's a familiar feeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 It's something. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 3 hours ago, bluewave said: Yeah, the Pacific Jet will continue to dominate into late December. It will be interesting to see if the SSW verifies. If it does, then we’ll have to wait and see if it benefits Eurasia or North America. Never a good sign when you are counting on SSWs and SPV splits to change a pattern. Anyway, very true on your point on who benefits from this potential SSW. Not really seeing it on these forums but the hype on social media that it’s definitely going to benefit the east and dump arctic cold and snow into the northeast and mid-Atlantic is dead wrong. The SSW (if it even happens) could very easily benefit Eurasia like you said and do nothing here. We have multiple examples of such. The notion that any SSW and/or SPV split = massive cold and snow in the east is greatly flawed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 25, 2020 Author Share Posted December 25, 2020 57 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Never a good sign when you are counting on SSWs and SPV splits to change a pattern. Anyway, very true on your point on who benefits from this potential SSW. Not really seeing it on these forums but the hype on social media that it’s definitely going to benefit the east and dump arctic cold and snow into the northeast and mid-Atlantic is dead wrong. The SSW (if it even happens) could very easily benefit Eurasia like you said and do nothing here. We have multiple examples of such. The notion that any SSW and/or SPV split = massive cold and snow in the east is greatly flawed The best SSW outcomes for us were when the Pacific has cooperated. You can run down the list and see which years worked for us. As has been the case in recent years, it will probably come down to how the Pacific responds. Full list of events https://csl.noaa.gov/groups/csl8/sswcompendium/majorevents.html 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 The pac is going to be a issue until the +EAMT retracts. I see no reason why we won’t snow again in nyc. How many people thought we would get 10+ in nyc for December? The next shot will probably be between January 2-5th. The eps likes those dates as of now. I see no reason to fear a repeat of winter 2020! This is not last winter by any means. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 the forecast is for a near -4sd AO...its not a bad sign...makes me think something will pop in the first two weeks of January... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 The block is very wonky. It's way too far south and almost looks like an extended north atlantic subtropical ridge. No matter it can't compete against the negative pacific influences. In fact its odd placement is probably why the pacific isn't good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 Everyone is banking on the SSW again. The epic January calls because of that might be in jeopardy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 14 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Everyone is banking on the SSW again. The epic January calls because of that might be in jeopardy seems they work out for us about 25% of the time.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 57 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: The block is very wonky. It's way too far south and almost looks like an extended north atlantic subtropical ridge. No matter it can't compete against the negative pacific influences. In fact its odd placement is probably why the pacific isn't good. I mean it can work if we have a rockin ATL side, right? I realize it was one-of-a-kind, but didn’t 95-96 have a less-than-ideal PAC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 2 memorable storms in december that is 2 better then we had last winter i will take it.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 Rain deep into interior Quebec on back to back to back storms has gotta be unusual for late December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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