LibertyBell Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 16 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Morning thoughts... Today will be variably cloudy. Temperatures will likely top out in the upper 30s and lower 40s across most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 41° Newark: 41° Philadelphia: 43° After some overnight rain or snow showers, tomorrow will become partly cloudy. Forecast for the super conjunction early tonight, Don? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 1 hour ago, bluewave said: The timing of the Christmas cold front looks to be early Christmas morning. The EURO and new GFS V16 are pretty close. So the high for the day will be early with falling temperatures after. Another big temperature swing weather pattern. when will that big rain and wind storm end that we're supposed to get? right before the cold comes charging in? so no precip on Christmas day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 2 hours ago, snowman19 said: Yea, we may be singing a very different tune in just over 4 weeks (late January) maybe it'll hold off until Groundhog day, a la Jan 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Forecast for the super conjunction early tonight, Don? Unfortunately, it will likely be mostly cloudy to completely overcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 27 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: maybe it'll hold off until Groundhog day, a la Jan 2011. April would be better 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 31 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: when will that big rain and wind storm end that we're supposed to get? right before the cold comes charging in? so no precip on Christmas day? Yes Overnight Christmas Eve into early morning Temps will tumble after that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 55 minutes ago, MJO812 said: April would be better If the tropical convective forcing moves to the Maritime Continent in late January, as is the typical canonical La Niña progression, people won’t be asking “where is the La Niña pattern?” anymore come February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Anyone in here have the links to the Euro tellies? I only have the GFS based ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: Unfortunately, it will likely be mostly cloudy to completely overcast. Now you see why I want geo-engineering so bad, imagine if we had the power to suck clouds right out of the air to see magnificent spectacles like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 34 minutes ago, snowman19 said: If the tropical convective forcing moves to the Maritime Continent in late January, as is the typical canonical La Niña progression, people won’t be asking “where is the La Niña pattern?” anymore come February there is no such thing as "el nino" or "la nina" patterns, it's all about blocking or lack thereof 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: there is no such thing as "el nino" or "la nina" patterns, it's all about blocking or lack thereof Agree 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Agree we've seen way too many el ninos produce very little snow and some of our biggest snowfall seasons of all time have been la ninas, some of them are front loaded, some are backloaded and some are both. You cant cookie cutter our snowfall patterns into specific ENSO scenarios, if you could long range forecasting would be a lot easier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Gfs is pretty stormy at the end of this month into January. If blocking develops then watch out. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 For coastal plain I’d be more interested in the second wave length event. I think the redeveloping clipper could change to snow for nyc if you get a closed ULL at the right spot, but the hp source is better after Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 21, 2020 Author Share Posted December 21, 2020 2 hours ago, mikem81 said: Anyone in here have the links to the Euro tellies? I only have the GFS based ones. The Euro has one of the strongest south based blocks that we have seen this time of year. It has a whopping +6 SD 500 mb height anomaly just south of Greenland. A 584 dm ridge east of Newfoundland should be very close to the record in late December. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 42. The melting has commenced 45 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Some drier air has worked in, so there may be several hours of partly to mostly sunny skies in parts of the region. That should leader to temperatures running several degrees above modeled highs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 32 minutes ago, bluewave said: The Euro has one of the strongest south based blocks that we have seen this time of year. It has a whopping +6 SD 500 mb height anomaly just south of Greenland. A 584 dm ridge east of Newfoundland should be very close to the record in late December. that could suppress the storm track way south-like 09-10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 up to 41 here-warmest it's been in since a week ago Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 22 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: up to 41 here-warmest it's been in since a week ago Sunday 45 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: Some drier air has worked in, so there may be several hours of partly to mostly sunny skies in parts of the region. That should leader to temperatures running several degrees above modeled highs. Thank goodness. A nice, slow, reasonable melt the next few days can only help with whatever rain we get Thursday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: Gfs is pretty stormy at the end of this month into January. If blocking develops then watch out. There is a new thread created by Walt for next weeks potential 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: that could suppress the storm track way south-like 09-10 Somehow I doubt that. I see the late Dec storm but it looks too warm right now. Climo is more favorable so can't rule out snows even to NYC though. I think 1st week of Jan will offer better potential for this regions as pacific improves and blocking gets more established. I noticed the GEFS seemed to capture the Arctic blocking better than EPS in the long range. EPS has been playing catch-up these past few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 4 hours ago, LibertyBell said: there is no such thing as "el nino" or "la nina" patterns, it's all about blocking or lack thereof I don't know if I'd go that far. Certainly, blocking can overwhelm ENSO's influence and, in that respect, might be a greater determinant of sensible weather here (especially in the last few years of atmospheric coupling weirdness). But that all doesn't mean there's "no such thing as 'el nino' or 'la nina' patterns[.]" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 27 minutes ago, Eduardo said: I don't know if I'd go that far. Certainly, blocking can overwhelm ENSO's influence and, in that respect, might be a greater determinant of sensible weather here (especially in the last few years of atmospheric coupling weirdness). But that all doesn't mean there's "no such thing as 'el nino' or 'la nina' patterns[.]" I think there are Nino and Nina correlations in temp and precip distribution as evidenced by analogue data, but specific patterns from one nino or nina year to the next are varied, depending on the phase of the ENSO cycle, strength and other factors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 5 hours ago, LibertyBell said: there is no such thing as "el nino" or "la nina" patterns, it's all about blocking or lack thereof To say that ENSO is totally meaningless and that there’s no such thing as El Niño or La Niña patterns is completely and totally absurd. That’s ludicrous 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gmendevils8204 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Some drier air has worked in, so there may be several hours of partly to mostly sunny skies in parts of the region. That should leader to temperatures running several degrees above modeled highs. Warmed up nicely. 46 in Little Falls right now. There was a lot of melting today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 21, 2020 Author Share Posted December 21, 2020 53 minutes ago, Eduardo said: I don't know if I'd go that far. Certainly, blocking can overwhelm ENSO's influence and, in that respect, might be a greater determinant of sensible weather here (especially in the last few years of atmospheric coupling weirdness). But that all doesn't mean there's "no such thing as 'el nino' or 'la nina' patterns[.]" Yeah, this month looks like a continuation of the atmospheric coupling weirdness of recent years. The 500 mb pattern is much more El Niño-like. Especially the deep Aleutian Low and +PNA. I guess that this makes up for the last 2 winters which were technically El Niño with La Niña-like 500 mb patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: To say that ENSO is totally meaningless and that there’s no such thing as El Niño or La Niña patterns is completely and totally absurd. That’s ludicrous Is it though? There's something to be said about how decoupled the atmospheric pattern seems to be from the ENSO state. And then there's that whole Hadley Cell argument which is addressed well on the SNE forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: Is it though? There's something to be said about how decoupled the atmospheric pattern seems to be from the ENSO state. And then there's that whole Hadley Cell argument which is addressed well on the SNE forum. The argument that ENSO is completely meaningless and that there is no such thing as La Niña or El Niño patterns is asinine, nonsensical. It’s not even worthy of a debate 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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