December 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

1 hour ago, 495weatherguy said:

Petty and nasty

 

Have I told you to move when you root for snow when there is no way that it can materialize?

Contrary to your beliefs, this area is not conducive to snow--

 

But yet somehow even New York City averages 30 inches a year. That average isn’t much different and even higher than many major mid western cities. 

[MJO812]

Front Is alot faster on this 12z run

 

Cold Christmas afternoon

[495weatherguy]

1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

But yet somehow even New York City averages 30 inches a year. That average isn’t much different and even higher than many major mid western cities. 

An average that has been bolstered by anomalous amounts the last 20 years

numbers are easily manipulated 

look at the 1980’s, 1970’s

I still maintain a lot of things have to go right in order for the tri state area to receive a major snow.  The last 20 years I’ve been nothing short of spectacular 

[the_other_guy]

2 hours ago, 495weatherguy said:

Even though I was rooting for this to come to fruition, I suspected it was a bit early to declare the month as finished

Hopefully the block disappears as quickly as it appeared

Belleayre and Hunter tripled their trails overnight. Heading up tomorrow

[MJO812]

Euro has gusts over 70mph in the city for Christmas Eve

[Shades]

8 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

An average that has been bolstered by anomalous amounts the last 20 years

numbers are easily manipulated 

look at the 1980’s, 1970’s

I still maintain a lot of things have to go right in order for the tri state area to receive a major snow.  The last 20 years I’ve been nothing short of spectacular 

 

I'm confused. Maybe my math is wrong. Isn't 1980's and 1970's also a 20 year span? Who's to say that years of below normal snowfall aren't anomalous? After all when we're talking anomalous, we're talking data derived from an average of extremes.

[NorthShoreWx]

8 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

An average that has been bolstered by anomalous amounts the last 20 years

numbers are easily manipulated 

look at the 1980’s, 1970’s

I still maintain a lot of things have to go right in order for the tri state area to receive a major snow.  The last 20 years I’ve been nothing short of spectacular 

Nice way to make the point about numbers.  The 70s and 80s were highly anomalous too.  Show me another 20 year period with snowfall as low.

The new 30 year climo is going to be within about 1.5" of the POR average for NYC (including some good decades and some bad ones).

[weatherpruf]

2 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

There are lots of people that feel the opposite of this. After that last snowstorm, there were so many children and parents that said they were extremely happy to be able to go outside and play in the snow. They said it gave them a much needed feeling of normalcy during this pandemic. Bill Ritter of Eyewitness news, after presenting the story, even said that the snowstorm was almost like a type of vaccine during this pandemic. So there are a lot of people that feel that snow is an extra good thing during this pandemic. Getting outside to play and work in the snow is a good thing.

Snow has always been a source of uplift for peoples' moods during winter. The most depressing thing in winter are short, overcast rainy days that come back to back. That is in fact how  winters are in many places where snow isn't common; England, Ireland a lot of the US....snow lifts people's moods because it brightens things up. Using the snow blower and having the dog leap into the air chasing the snow was the most fun I've had in a long time. It's back to overcast and damp today ( though it did snow a bit earlier ).

[weatherpruf]

18 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

An average that has been bolstered by anomalous amounts the last 20 years

numbers are easily manipulated 

look at the 1980’s, 1970’s

I still maintain a lot of things have to go right in order for the tri state area to receive a major snow.  The last 20 years I’ve been nothing short of spectacular 

it's really been about the same give or take a few inches, for a long time; the 70's and 80's were not that snowy, but the decades before were. I've always thought the median was a better measure, or even the mode. Averages don't give a clear picture, because some years are off the charts in either direction.

[NorthShoreWx]

11 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Actually this area is rather conducive to snow, far more than some other parts of the country. It just isn't off the charts or as snowy as New England or the upper Midwest ( we''ll leave the mountains and Alaska out of this ) but 28-30 inches a year is not ( though not guaranteed ) inconsequential. Most winters will witness a few significant snow events, sometimes more. it's ok to hate it, most people do. Doesn't mean they want to move to the tropical rainforest or desert, anymore than my liking a good snow makes me want to move to Buffalo or Syracuse. You have a right to express your opinion. But saying the area isn't conducive to snow just isn't factual. Maybe you meant it isn't conducive to A LOT of snow......

This isn't a snowfall mecca, but one area where we do well compared to some regions with higher average snowfall is the big snow events.  The ocean taketh away, but it also giveth.

And here on the coast where it is often windier...I haven't done any research but it feels like we verify a lot of blizzards.

[snowman19]

3 hours ago, Allsnow said:

I always get more interested in a pattern when you’re on board. I really can’t believe that this is the way this winter is heading. 

This progression is not shocking at all in a La Niña which is front end loaded. December through early to mid January typically are the colder/snowier period, then late January, February (especially) and March are when the classic La Niña torch pattern normally hits

[dWave]

Anyone know what the median snowfall is? Espically for the current 30 yr normals and the new normals coming out soon

I saw somewhere the avg snowfall across the US is about 28", which would make NYC a very average place for snow.  Of couse there is alot of ways to get to the same totals, I think it can be more feast or famine here near the coast compared to others regions. We avg more annual precip than alot of places so even though it feels like alot of pieces have to come together to get a good snowfall here, we get alot of opportunities. We're like a mediocre 3 pt shooter who gets alot of shots up. The midwest away from lake effect areas pile up snow more efficiently but efficient isnt always fun.

[NEG NAO]

14 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

DT is crowing about the 29th-30th

Until the EURO stops the LP from cutting nothing to crow about yet:

[snowman19]

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Until the EURO stops the LP from cutting nothing to get excited about yet:

The new Euro has a full latitude trough on the west coast (strong -PNA) for this storm. If that’s correct, it’s going to cut

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Until the EURO stops the LP from cutting nothing to crow about yet:

The ensembles are off  the coast. 

Best to look at the ensembles this far out

[NEG NAO]

Just now, MJO812 said:

The ensembles are off  the coast. 

Best to look at the ensembles this far out

how many members ?

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

1 hour ago, 495weatherguy said:

An average that has been bolstered by anomalous amounts the last 20 years

numbers are easily manipulated 

look at the 1980’s, 1970’s

I still maintain a lot of things have to go right in order for the tri state area to receive a major snow.  The last 20 years I’ve been nothing short of spectacular 

It’s as ridiculous to use the 70s and 80s as examples as it is to use just the the last 20 years. The 70s and the 80s were the worst decades for snowfall in the city, both averaged 20-21 inches, in the 150 years of recordkeeping.

Maybe try the 152 year average in NYC which is 28.8 inches, or you can go with the 30 year average which NOAA calculates for every city and in New York City that average is 30.0 inches. Not much of a difference either way. 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

1 hour ago, dWave said:

Anyone know what the median snowfall is? Espically for the current 30 yr normals and the new normals coming out soon

I saw somewhere the avg snowfall across the US is about 28", which would make NYC a very average place for snow.  Of couse there is alot of ways to get to the same totals, I think it can be more feast or famine here near the coast compared to others regions. We avg more annual precip than alot of places so even though it feels like alot of pieces have to come together to get a good snowfall here, we get alot of opportunities. We're like a mediocre 3 pt shooter who gets alot of shots up. The midwest away from lake effect areas pile up snow more efficiently but efficient isnt always fun.

Of course it depends where you are in the Midwest, upper, central or lower. Most of the bottom two thirds of Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, and most of Kansas and Missouri are horrible places for snow lovers and retention of what falls. In our sub forum the HV, Coastal Plain of NJ, NYC and immediate surrounding area,  LI and SW CT. All are very diverse temperature and snow wise during the winter months.

The average since 1870 is 28.8 inches, the new 30 year average will be about 30 inches give or take a couple of tenths, depending on what happens from here until the end of the month.

NYC now needs an additional 0.8 inches of snow this December to get the December 30 year average from 5.1 to 5.2 which will then get to a 30.0 inch average when the next averages are calculated next month for 1991-2020.

30 Year - 30 year Snowfall averages per month & seasonal- New York City
Period...........Oct... Nov... Dec...Jan... Feb... Mar... Apr...Seasonal
1871-1900... 0.0... 2.0..... 6.3....9.1.... 9.0.... 6.0.... 1.0.... 33.3
1881-1910... 0.0... 1.8..... 5.7... 8.9.... 9.1.... 6.2.... 0.7.... 32.4
1891-1920... 0.0... 1.3..... 5.7... 7.5.... 9.8.... 6.7.... 1.2.... 32.2
1901-1930... 0.0... 0.2......6.2... 7.5.... 9.6... .5.1.... 1.3.... 29.8
1911-1940... 0.0... 0.9..... 5.2... 6.5.... 9.3.... 4.7.... 1.3.... 28.1
1921-1950... 0.0....1.0..... 6.0 ...7.4.... 9.0.... 3.5.... 0.9.... 27.8
1931-1960... 0.0... 1.1..... 6.5... 6.3.... 6.8.... 5.4.... 0.9.... 27.0
1941-1970... 0.0... 0.4..... 7.1... 6.8.... 7.5.... 5.8.... 0.7.... 28.2
1951-1980... 0.0... 0.4..... 4.6... 6.7.... 7.8.... 5.0.... 0.3.... 24.8
1961-1990... 0.0... 0.4..... 3.3... 7.6.... 8.4.... 3.3.... 0.4.... 23.5
1971-2000... 0.0... 0.4..... 2.6... 7.3.... 8.0.... 3.6.... 0.5.... 22.3
1981-2010... 0.0... 0.3..... 4.8... 7.1.... 9.2.... 3.9.... 0.6.... 25.9
1991-2020... 0.1... 0.5.... 5.1... 8.7.... 10.1... 5.0.... 0.4.... 29.9

How the larger storms fall by month as below:

No. of 10 + inch snows by Month NYC
1…....November
13…..December
16…..January
25…..February
9…....March
2…....April
66…...Total

[MJO812]

35 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

how many members ?

This is a good mean this far out.

Courtesy of Orh

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

The new Euro has a full latitude trough on the west coast (strong -PNA) for this storm. If that’s correct, it’s going to cut

If the Arctic blocking is real then models will correct south as we get closer. 

Still i would favor the 1st week of Jan over DT's idea, think late Dec is a little early for us. 

[Isotherm]

1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Of course it depends where you are in the Midwest, upper, central or lower. Most of the bottom two thirds of Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, and most of Kansas and Missouri are horrible places for snow lovers and retention of what falls. In our sub forum the HV, Coastal Plain of NJ, NYC and immediate surrounding area,  LI and SW CT. All are very diverse temperature and snow wise during the winter months.

The average since 1870 is 28.8 inches, the new 30 year average will be about 30 inches give or take a couple of tenths, depending on what happens from here until the end of the month.

NYC now needs an additional 0.8 inches of snow this December to get the December 30 year average from 5.1 to 5.2 which will then get to a 30.0 inch average when the next averages are calculated next month for 1991-2020.

30 Year - 30 year Snowfall averages per month & seasonal- New York City
Period...........Oct... Nov... Dec...Jan... Feb... Mar... Apr...Seasonal
1871-1900... 0.0... 2.0..... 6.3....9.1.... 9.0.... 6.0.... 1.0.... 33.3
1881-1910... 0.0... 1.8..... 5.7... 8.9.... 9.1.... 6.2.... 0.7.... 32.4
1891-1920... 0.0... 1.3..... 5.7... 7.5.... 9.8.... 6.7.... 1.2.... 32.2
1901-1930... 0.0... 0.2......6.2... 7.5.... 9.6... .5.1.... 1.3.... 29.8
1911-1940... 0.0... 0.9..... 5.2... 6.5.... 9.3.... 4.7.... 1.3.... 28.1
1921-1950... 0.0....1.0..... 6.0 ...7.4.... 9.0.... 3.5.... 0.9.... 27.8
1931-1960... 0.0... 1.1..... 6.5... 6.3.... 6.8.... 5.4.... 0.9.... 27.0
1941-1970... 0.0... 0.4..... 7.1... 6.8.... 7.5.... 5.8.... 0.7.... 28.2
1951-1980... 0.0... 0.4..... 4.6... 6.7.... 7.8.... 5.0.... 0.3.... 24.8
1961-1990... 0.0... 0.4..... 3.3... 7.6.... 8.4.... 3.3.... 0.4.... 23.5
1971-2000... 0.0... 0.4..... 2.6... 7.3.... 8.0.... 3.6.... 0.5.... 22.3
1981-2010... 0.0... 0.3..... 4.8... 7.1.... 9.2.... 3.9.... 0.6.... 25.9
1991-2020... 0.1... 0.5.... 5.1... 8.7.... 10.1... 5.0.... 0.4.... 29.9

How the larger storms fall by month as below:

No. of 10 + inch snows by Month NYC
1…....November
13…..December
16…..January
25…..February
9…....March
2…....April
66…...Total

 

Additionally (supplement to your good points here) regarding the United States "average" snowfall, left unsaid is whether that average is derived via a population weighted calculation. The raw average may be somewhat deceptive. A comparison of moderately-highly populated cities rather than an incorporation of all towns in the entire United States would likely yield NYC well above the 50th percentile. 

Locally, I've calculated a 31.0" average snowfall for 1990-2020. It's been an excellent 20 year period in interior Monmouth County. Like portions of central LI, here, we tend to benefit from late developing Miller Bs, further mesoscale enhancement from the Sandy Hook Bay on NELY flow during winter storms, and proximity to the Atlantic Ocean, but not close enough to materially lower the snowfall average. Hence Monmouth County features a fairly interesting climate, and frequently steep snowfall gradient NW-SE/NNW/SSE in numerous storms. There's about a 9-10" differential in average snowfall across the county; 30-31" in the N/W and close to 20-21" in Manasquan. (My website here: https://www.lightinthestorm.com/nj-snowfall ).

Newark Airport also has a 31.1" 30-year running average 1990-2020 per latest data. My median 30-year snowfall is 29.0", which is not far from the mean, and it suggests the frequency of above and below normal snowfall winters aren't too dissimilar. Contrast to locations farther south (for example, DCA) wherein snowfall medians are quite a bit lower than means.

Also, possibly axiomatic, but the average for a given place is deceptive in how that average arrives. Most of the Mid-west outside of the Lakes region derives those 25-35" averages via frequently low end snowfall events (as you know). I think the region 39N-41N on the eastern side of North America has some of the most significant and fascinating variability in winter-time weather.

 

[Snowshack]

Long term average here is 32.75" according to BNL's numbers.   Only 4 times in the last 30 years were we within 20% of that average in either direction.  Expecting average snowfall hasn't worked out well in our feast or famine recent years.

[CIK62]

GFS contains enough liquid for 55" inches of snow over the next 16 days-------but alas shows just a paltry 3".       Looks like a Cutter City Festival.

[MJO812]

New GFS for Christmas Storm

Low now goes over NYC.

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

If the Arctic blocking is real then models will correct south as we get closer. 

Still i would favor the 1st week of Jan over DT's idea, think late Dec is a little early for us. 

No, if there’s really a full latitude trough out west it’s not “correcting” to anything 

[bluewave]

On 12/17/2020 at 8:37 PM, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Big storms are a rarity in the Midwest, the perfect example is Minneapolis. They have been keeping weather records almost as long as NYC, since the 1880's. They average about  50 inches of snow per season, similar to Toronto, but In that time they have had 5 storms with more than 17 inches of snow, New York City has had 16 storms over 17 inches in the same time span.

Yeah, having a much warmer than average NW Atlantic nearby makes a big difference. ISP has had 5 events of 17” or greater since the 09-10 winter. MSP recorded  one 17” snowstorm over the same period.

for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY

27.8	2013-02-09

24.9	2015-01-27

23.9	2009-12-20

23.7	2016-01-24

18.4	2018-03-22

for Minneapolis-St Paul Area, MN (ThreadEx)

17.3	2010-12-11

 

 

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

New GFS for Christmas Storm

Low now goes over NYC.

GFS too cold again and on its own yet again

[SnoSki14]

32 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

No, if there’s really a full latitude trough out west it’s not “correcting” to anything 

I don't see any full latitude trough on the ensembles.

[HeadInTheClouds]

2 hours ago, CIK62 said:

GFS contains enough liquid for 55" inches of snow over the next 16 days-------but alas shows just a paltry 3".       Looks like a Cutter City Festival.

Yeah and we know how good the GFS has been. 

[White Gorilla]

48 minutes ago, JoshSnow said:

GFS looks pretty cold. It looks like heavy rain would change to heavy snow just around midnight Christmas Eve which sounds pretty special!

Old GFS or new one?