December 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[tim]

...not as cold as you but..

KFOK @ 9*..eastport @ 16*

[weathermedic]

From OKX AFD early AM discussion:

A mid level shortwave trough may continue the chance of showers into Sunday night with perhaps a rain/snow mix across the interior. At this time looks as though the precipitation will end by late Sunday night as the disturbances moves to the northeast and north. Additionally, in response to Pac jet energy farther south, a couple of weak coastal lows Sunday night into Monday look to pass well south and east of the region. Eventually, a much deeper low forms east of New England Monday night into Tuesday. There is still some hint of Norlun trough/trowal in the vicinity of the northern Mid Atlantic at the same time, but the placement of these is always difficult this many days out. Thus, have maintained a low chance of precipitations at this time.

[bluewave]

9 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

@bluewave was discussing the areas where 20”-40” snow just fell as having the highest risk of a flood threat, not here. 

Thanks, Don. There is a long history of people making out of place responses to things that people didn’t actually say in their original post. BGM and ALY mention possible runoff issues in their AFD. People have to realize that we are having a long range model discussion. Obviously, the actual details that show up closer in will be the ones of most relevance. So to say that x model shows y solution a week out is not a 100% endorsement of what its showing. Just to begin to think about what types of impacts could arise if such solution was actually to verify. 

We have the existing significant snowpack to consider, and the implications for additional runoff.

Milder temperatures and some rain will arrive for Thursday into
early Friday. Deepending on how much rainfall and snowmelt
occurs, there could be a response on area rivers and streams,
although it is still too early to tell how much of an impact
this will be.

 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 32degs.(24/39).        Making it 27degs., or -8.0.

Month to date is missing.     Calculated is +0.9.         Should be -1.8 by the 27th.

All models have T near 60* for Christmas in the midst of otherwise decent lows.     Looks wacky.        Non gusts winds of 25-35mph. are higher than in our recent snow event.

GEFS Extended Control has major snow event slated for Jan. 07th.

23*(67%RH) here at 6am.      32* by 11:15am.      34* by 1pm.      35* at 2pm.     34*  at 3pm.

[the_other_guy]

17F at 7 am

[bluewave]

28 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

The next 8 days are averaging 32degs.(24/39).        Making it 27degs., or -8.0.

Month to date is missing.     Calculated is +0.9.         Should be -1.8 by the 27th.

All models have T near 60* for Christmas in the midst of otherwise decent lows.     Looks wacky.

23*(67%RH) here at 6am.

There is plenty of missing climate data for some reason this month. But NYC is at +0.5 on the xmacis2 climate site. A very Niño-like temperature departure this month with warmth along the Northern Tier and cold South.

 

[IrishRob17]

-3 here currently in Campbell Hall, well below the forecasted low thanks to the snowpack. 

[wdrag]

The period of light snow that affects the nw-ne suburbs during the daylight hours Sunday might Trace in NYC.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

2.2 above zero. 
Snowpack and clear skies doing its thing. 

[wdrag]

Understanding NWS processes:  While there are attempts to update all the local storm reports and public information statements with 'final' values,  there are time constraints on what might in my words only not the NWS, meaningful work.  If it's only an additional inch or so and will not make much difference to the analysis (accurate #s needed for NWS verification of their Watch, Warning, Advisory program), then I can see it is not done.  Remember, there are hundreds of reports that need  to be constantly filtered.   (CoCoRAHS is considered official- my own report may not be included because I'm not CoCoRAHS).  

The climate program is always point specific accurate.- NWS controls.  All the other reports are updated as time allows.  

We need to remember: Pandemic reduced in office staffing, that the forecast process is complex adjustments of digital elements that automatically make the words and interoffice and national guidance collaborated. That there are focal point duties  -everyone has an area of responsibility- to maintain currency in the program and outreach to the partners-training the partners and vice versa- mine was the rip current and marine program for MT Holly 2010-18. This takes time to be fluent and then there is TRAINING of staff in your area of expertise. This akin to Research to Operations (RTO) training for frequent improvements in NWS processes and understandings (simulator requirement training).  There is also training directed down from a national level, including do's and don'ts with regarding to security.  

So, it's not all about the numbers.  NWS folks are paid well for their time and do the best they can to accomplish everything with multi customer satisfaction. Walt (my own interpretation of what we tried to accomplish during my days as a NWS  meteorologist)

[donsutherland1]

7 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Understanding NWS processes:  While there are attempts to update all the local storm reports and public information statements with 'final' values,  there are time constraints on what might in my words only not the NWS, meaningful work.  If it's only an additional inch or so and will not make much difference to the analysis (accurate #s needed for NWS verification of their Watch, Warning, Advisory program), then I can see it is not done.  Remember, there are hundreds of reports that need  to be constantly filtered.   (CoCoRAHS is considered official- my own report may not be included because I'm not CoCoRAHS).  

The climate program is always point specific accurate.- NWS controls.  All the other reports are updated as time allows.  

We need to remember: Pandemic reduced in office staffing, that the forecast process is complex adjustments of digital elements that automatically make the words and interoffice and national guidance collaborated. That there are focal point duties  -everyone has an area of responsibility- to maintain currency in the program and outreach to the partners-training the partners and vice versa- mine was the rip current and marine program for MT Holly 2010-18. This takes time to be fluent and then there is TRAINING of staff in your area of expertise. This akin to Research to Operations (RTO) training for frequent improvements in NWS processes and understandings (simulator requirement training).  There is also training directed down from a national level, including do's and don'ts with regarding to security.  

So, it's not all about the numbers.  NWS folks are paid well for their time and do the best they can to accomplish everything with multi customer satisfaction. Walt (my own interpretation of what we tried to accomplish during my days as a NWS  meteorologist)

IMO, the NWS is an invaluable resource. It is among the most effective and beneficial federal entities and provides proof to skeptics that government can perform at a consistently high level. I appreciate and applaud all that NWS does even with severe resource constraints in recent years.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

Today will be mostly sunny in much of the region. It will remain unseasonably cold. Temperatures will likely top out in the lower and 30s across most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 31°

Newark: 33°

Philadelphia: 33°

Tomorrow will be variably cloudy with some rain and snow showers, along with moderating temperatures.

[uofmiami]

7.8 in Muttontown & 12.3 in Syosset for the low.

[bluewave]

You can think of the warm storm track near Christmas as a sacrifice bunt. The ensembles are trying to use it as a means to shift the blocking from east of New England closer toward Greenland later in the month. We saw something like this with the warm storm track back around December 1st. So while the event around Christmas looks warm and wet, it could set the stage for a cold and snowy storm track as we approach and move  into 2021.

 

 

[Allsnow]

14 degrees snowpack and the holidays. The last few days have been epic 

[Allsnow]

This is why it’s so important to have a weak vortex. If we Didn’t have it (look like a ssw is coming as well) we would be in a typical Niña pattern. The weeklies and long range Models are just looking  at the mjo and defaulting Niña 

[CIK62]

Do not forget it took NOAA two years to get KWO 35 back on the air.   Also, earlier intermod problems with CG frequencies forced KWO35 off the air except for emergency tone alerts.

Yes, the graphics are tighter, more detailed and more colorful, but are they more accurate?

Like a more detailed road map that even shows potholes------but shows them in the wrong places.   Lol.

[bluewave]

These are two great tweets on how the record warm SSTs to our east are providing extra moisture to snowstorms. But on the flip side, we also get bigger rain and wind storms when the intense lows track to our west. Especially with systems that can go negative tilt.
 

 

[NEG NAO]

I think the 95/96 La Nina is the closest analog to this winter so far and early January has a lot of potential as it did in 1996 after a above average snowfall in  December 1995 BUT its only potential as of now

[wdrag]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

IMO, the NWS is an invaluable resource. It is among the most effective and beneficial federal entities and provides proof to skeptics that government can perform at a consistently high level. I appreciate and applaud all that NWS does even with severe resource constraints in recent years.

Agree w you Don et al!!  This is your $8/pp tax payer dollar whatever, WELL spent.  You're getting bang for the buck from a broadly talented -dedicated - high effort group,  throughout the agency. 

[MJO812]

14 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

I think the 95/96 La Nina is the closest analog to this winter so far and early January has a lot of potential as it did in 1996 after a above average snowfall in  December 1995 BUT its only potential as of now

2010-2011 also had alot of events until February 

[MJO812]

 

[wdrag]

Am on the cusp of a minor snow topic for 1-3" of snow NYC combined events Sunday and Tuesday.  Will review at 3P. If RGEM/GGEM NOT on board then probably, no topic. 

[White Gorilla]

20 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

 

That Jan 20 - March 2010 pattern was suppression city for our area if I remember correctly. 

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

That Jan 20 - March 2010 pattern was suppression city for our area if I remember correctly. 

It depends on what area you area you are talking about  

The mid Atlantic got crushed by the early Feb 2010 storm. There were 3 storms that month.

I got 40 inches that month. 

Remember the retrogading storm ?

[forkyfork]

that pattern is not 2010

[STORMANLI]

23 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

The Grinch usually isn't denied, but this snowcover won't dissapear from a few 40 degree days in December sun.

Our 6.7 inches of snow here (now 6" snowdepth) contains 1.61" of water.  I melted the catch in the rain gage and it was only 0.64" so I took a core which melted to 1.61".

 

 

7.2" in South Commack

Melted down to

1.34" in the Stratus

1.35" From the Core Sample

[IrishRob17]

Just now, STORMANLI said:

7.2" in South Commack

Melted down to

1.34" in the Stratus

1.35" From the Core Sample

That’s impressive those two totals were that close. 

[NEG NAO]

19 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Am on the cusp of a minor snow topic for 1-3" of snow NYC combined events Sunday and Tuesday.  Will review at 3P. If RGEM/GGEM NOT on board then probably, no topic. 

12Z NAM is mainly a New York State/Northern PA and points east of there  event maybe Northwest NJ

[STORMANLI]

20 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

That’s impressive those two totals were that close. 

Yeah, surprised myself, as usually some disparity between the two. But then again it is 2020.