December 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[Allsnow]

More snow is coming...the Niña is done 

 

 

 

[Stormlover74]

21 minutes ago, uncle W said:

December 1955, 1964,  1979 and 2008 had snowfalls within a week of Christmas but melted Christmas eve in a torch...

And 2009 while we had snow on Christmas morning we lost much if not all of it from a warm rainy day

[Snowshack]

30 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

The Grinch usually isn't denied, but this snowcover won't dissapear from a few 40 degree days in December sun.

Our 6.7 inches of snow here (now 6" snowdepth) contains 1.61" of water.  I melted the catch in the rain gage and it was only 0.64" so I took a core which melted to 1.61".

 

 

That 1.61" seems really high - I didn't think we got anywhere near that much precip.   Certainly not questioning your report.

[MJO812]

20 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

More snow is coming...the Niña is done 

 

 

 

The cutter builds a massive negative NAO on the gfs

[LibertyBell]

40 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

The Grinch usually isn't denied, but this snowcover won't dissapear from a few 40 degree days in December sun.

Our 6.7 inches of snow here (now 6" snowdepth) contains 1.61" of water.  I melted the catch in the rain gage and it was only 0.64" so I took a core which melted to 1.61".

 

 

I thought it's supposed to rain Sunday and Monday?

 

[David-LI]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

The cutter builds a massive negative NAO on the gfs

And gives us a shot at snow on Christmas day.

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

I thought it's supposed to rain Sunday and Monday?

 

it does-but light amounts

[LibertyBell]

20 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

More snow is coming...the Niña is done 

 

 

 

good I knew climate change had to have some positive effect and warming of both the Pacific and Atlantic seems to be it....killing off of the negative influence of la ninas in the Pacific and making noreaster precip bombs much more likely in the Atlantic are some good results for us weather enthusiasts.

 

[snowman19]

3 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

The 6Z GFS looks very interesting for next Friday as a wave is developing along the front on next Thursday and then rides up along the front through Friday - this is all about timing IMO and the exact location of the front and cold enough air as the wave rides up along the front - according to this it is a complex situation still a week away it is beginning to remind me of Christmas 2002 when rain developed earlier and then changed to snow across the region as the day wore on and by night several inches were on the ground

After the GFS’s absolutely abysmal performance with this last storm, I don’t trust it one bit. Always way too cold, real bad cold bias, bad SE bias, it doesn’t have a clue. That model is dreadful

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

I have been watching the Christmas eve warmth to artctic front rain, temps crash to heavy snow for a period on Christmas early morning threat and believe it is time to track.  Could be a wild swing.  60 on the eve and lows in the teens Christmas and boxing day, possible

snow squalls?

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I'm not sure, but Toronto averages 47 inches of snow a season and Seattle averages about 5 inches a season. I'm assuming long periods between 10 inch snowfalls in Seattle are pretty common.

well people in the Pac NW have been talking about a snowdrought ever since 1966-67

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

well people in the Pac NW have been talking about a snowdrought ever since 1966-67

With a seasonal average of 5 inches I guess they're always in a snow drought. LOL

It's almost like saying Atlanta is in a snow drought. When is it a snow drought and when is it just your climate norm.

[bluewave]

If the guidance is anywhere close, this could be the 10th solstice warm up in a row with 55°+ temperatures.

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Highest Max Temperature Dec 18 to Dec 25	Missing Count
2019-12-25	57	0
2018-12-25	61	0
2017-12-25	55	0
2016-12-25	58	0
2015-12-25	72	0
2014-12-25	62	0
2013-12-25	71	0
2012-12-25	56	0
2011-12-25	62	0

[snowman19]

9 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

but it showed the Wednesdays snowstorm a week out and stuck to it. Talking about bias - you yourself have  warm rainy bias  and I bet if I posted that there is no chance of any cold and snow on Christmas you would have agreed with me.....

Believe the GFS if you want because it’s showing snow. It’s a horrific model. And I actually sided with a colder, snowier storm with the last one and was wrong

[IrishRob17]

1 hour ago, NorthShoreWx said:

The Grinch usually isn't denied, but this snowcover won't dissapear from a few 40 degree days in December sun.

Our 6.7 inches of snow here (now 6" snowdepth) contains 1.61" of water.  I melted the catch in the rain gage and it was only 0.64" so I took a core which melted to 1.61".

 

 

 

29 minutes ago, Snowshack said:

That 1.61" seems really high - I didn't think we got anywhere near that much precip.   Certainly not questioning your report.

I was surprised up here yesterday when my 11" snowfall had a core of 1.53", there was 1.35" in the Stratus melted down.

[Brian5671]

6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Believe the GFS if you want because it’s showing snow. It’s a horrific model. And I actually sided with a colder, snowier storm with the last one and was wrong

it showed 1-2 inches 72 hrs out for places that got 25-35 or even 40 inches.   Awful.

[MJO812]

 

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

 

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

it showed 1-2 inches 72 hrs out for places that got 25-35 or even 40 inches.   Awful.

Yep, and the GEFS just is awful as the op. Horrible with storms, horrible with showing phantom high latitude blocking and extreme cold in the long range. It’s been going on for years now. It’s really very embarrassing 

[winterwx21]

Not as cold as it was supposed to be today. Temp here is up to 37. Will be big-time radiational cooling tonight though.

[bluewave]

Flood potential on the 12z Euro around Christmas. Especially for the interior areas with a 20-40” snowpack. Euro has heavy elevated convection and temperatures into the 50s in those  areas. Maybe we can slowly melt our pack each day so there isn’t a more rapid  melt like they could get north and west of the area if this solution verified.

 

 

 

[gravitylover]

9 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Not as cold as it was supposed to be today. Temp here is up to 37. Will be big-time radiational cooling tonight though.

Here it's 4-6* below forecasted highs.

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Flood potential on the 12z Euro around Christmas. Especially for the interior areas with a 20-40” snowpack. Euro has heavy elevated convection and temperatures into the 50s in those  areas. Maybe we can slowly melt our pack each day so there isn’t a sudden flash melt like they could get north and west of the area.

 

 

 

 We go from 50s and 60s to 20s with snow near the lakes.

Damaging wind gusts on the euro

[David-LI]

Are tornadoes possible in December?

[Brian5671]

40 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Here it's 4-6* below forecasted highs.

yeah no sun here all day has gotten up to 28 but that's  it

[KEITH L.I]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Flood potential on the 12z Euro around Christmas. Especially for the interior areas with a 20-40” snowpack. Euro has heavy elevated convection and temperatures into the 50s in those  areas. Maybe we can slowly melt our pack each day so there isn’t a sudden flash melt like they could get north and west of the area.

 

 

 

7 days out..I'd be surprised if that was the correct solution.Man you love to show warm maps lol  I don't think I ever seen you post a cold model run

[the_other_guy]

BGM isnt in our forum and no one in this area is at threat of a flash melt from the few inches of snow (or nothing) that will remain as we get closer to xmas eve.

 

Mid 40s Mon thru Wed will meltdown our 6-12 inch snowpack very quickly.

[the_other_guy]

17 minutes ago, KEITH L.I said:

7 days out..I'd be surprised if that was the correct solution.Man you love to show warm maps lol  I don't think I ever seen you post a cold model run

It goes well with this forum. I’ve never seen anything like it. Always onto the next thing. Never enjoy what’s right in front of them. We spent the last four months talking about how warm and awful this winter would be, then we Talked about how bad the storm would be if it missed, Now that we have snow on the ground for an extended period of time we are talking about a warm-up and rain and flooding.

ENJOY IT

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

It goes well with this forum. I’ve never seen anything like it. Always onto the next thing. Never enjoy what’s right in front of them. We spent the last four months talking about how warm and awful this winter would be, then we Talked about how bad the storm would be if it missed, Now that we have snow on the ground for an extended period of time we are talking about a warm-up and rain and flooding.

ENJOY IT

I'm already looking forward to the next storm.  The pattern looks great. La Nina is dying .

These images are from the Euro. Alot of blocking.

 

[jm1220]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I'm already looking forward to the next storm.  The pattern looks great. La Nina is dying .

These images are from the Euro. Alot of blocking.

 

Dec is typically when we’d get snowstorms in a Nina so this is evolving the way a Nina should. There’s been more blocking than some predicted which is great, but we have to keep that in place especially since part 2 of Nina winters are usually warm and snowless here. 

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Dec is typically when we’d get snowstorms in a Nina so this is evolving the way a Nina should. There’s been more blocking than some predicted which is great, but we have to keep that in place especially since part 2 of Nina winters are usually warm and snowless here. 

I agree-we have to hope the blocking can stick around.  I'm sure that SE ridge will flex from time to time.