uncle W Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 14 minutes ago, bluewave said: This looks like the 4th earliest 10” snowstorm for NYC. #1 Dec 5-7.......2003....14.0” #2 Dec11-12...1960.....15.2” #3 Dec 15th.....1916.....12.7” #4 Dec 16-17....2020.....10.0” 10" in Nov 1898... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 15 minutes ago, uncle W said: 10" in Nov 1898... cant forget that 1898-99 season. I think the 34 inches at Cape May during the historic Feb 1899 is still the record for highest snowfall total in a coastal location from a single storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 1 minute ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: There have been 33 Decembers with 10 or more inches of snow in NYC 27 of those winters have then had 30 or more inches for the season or 81.8% 20 of the 33 have had 40 or more inches of snow for the season or 60.6% 12 of the 33 have had 50 or more inches of snow or the season or 36.3% I like those odds. I hope we can get one more event to get over the top- reaching 12 inches for the month would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Revision of first post There have been 29 Decembers with 10 or more inches of snow in NYC 24 of those winters have then had 30 or more inches for the season or 82.8% 17 of the 29 have had 40 or more inches of snow for the season or 58.6% 9 of the 29 have had 50 or more inches of snow or the season or 31.0% 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 I measured 7" on the ground on Riverside Drive this morning, so glad to hear CPK reported 10" Anyone lamenting the fact that we didn't reach the high end potential has to go outside and absorb the fact that we have - at least here in the city - 7-10" of powdery snow blowing and drifting a week before Christmas. It is spectacular outside. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 1 hour ago, bluewave said: This looks like the 4th earliest 10” snowstorm for NYC. #1 Dec 5-7.......2003....14.0” #2 Dec11-12...1960.....15.2” #3 Dec 15th.....1916.....12.7” #4 Dec 16-17....2020.....10.0” 5th earliest. November 26-27, 1898 had 10.0”. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 this is the anniversary of the great ice storm of 1973...one of the analogs out for this year... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 8 minutes ago, uncle W said: this is the anniversary of the great ice storm of 1973...one of the analogs out for this year... how close is it to the anniversary of the Dec 1995 storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 17, 2020 Author Share Posted December 17, 2020 9 minutes ago, uncle W said: this is the anniversary of the great ice storm of 1973...one of the analogs out for this year... While we have surpassed many previous snowfall records since 1994, that winter really stands as the last widespread severe ice storm. I had an ice storm in Long Beach on Valentine’s Day 2007 and Feb 2, 2011. But neither one of those were on par with Jan 1994. Jan 94 was my only ice storm in Long Beach lasting over 12 hours. It was remarkable how even Long Beach was able to stay in the 20s with freezing rain from the early morning into the night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 1 minute ago, bluewave said: While we have surpassed many previous snowfall records since 1994, that winter really stands as the last widespread severe ice storm. I had an ice storm in Long Beach on Valentine’s Day 2007 and Feb 2, 2011. But neither one of those were on par with Jan 1994. Jan 94 was my only ice storm in Long Beach lasting over 12 hours. It was remarkable how even Long Beach was able to stay in the 20s with freezing rain from the early morning into the night. that was the BECS of ice storms and so beautiful at the end...KPOU at one point was 3 degrees with "heavy freezing rain" WTF was going on lol We were below freezing for the entire event here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 14 minutes ago, bluewave said: While we have surpassed many previous snowfall records since 1994, that winter really stands as the last widespread severe ice storm. I had an ice storm in Long Beach on Valentine’s Day 2007 and Feb 2, 2011. But neither one of those were on par with Jan 1994. Jan 94 was my only ice storm in Long Beach lasting over 12 hours. It was remarkable how even Long Beach was able to stay in the 20s with freezing rain from the early morning into the night. there were three ice storms that month...the 7-8th storm was all below freezing for me... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 3 hours ago, LibertyBell said: yes see this proves my point that ENSO is not as useful of a predictor as AO/NAO are. The La Nina is still there of course, but it is not influencing our weather as much as AO/NAO are. You may be right... I don't know. What I do know is that anything beyond two weeks with reliability is not easy and I myself, while I look to our long rangers for hope (or lack of), I don't think we yet have a good handle on the multiple influences that carve out a season. So, I'll continue to pay attention but I'm not confident of anything beyond 11 days. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 45 minutes ago, bluewave said: While we have surpassed many previous snowfall records since 1994, that winter really stands as the last widespread severe ice storm. I had an ice storm in Long Beach on Valentine’s Day 2007 and Feb 2, 2011. But neither one of those were on par with Jan 1994. Jan 94 was my only ice storm in Long Beach lasting over 12 hours. It was remarkable how even Long Beach was able to stay in the 20s with freezing rain from the early morning into the night. Was crazy up here too in Jan 94 -there was one, not sure which but it jumped into the 40's briefly then flash froze down to 0. Roads were a mess for days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 5 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: GEFS and GEPS look solid throughout. Only have EPS to day 10 looks good. In other board they said EPs looses ao and NAO end of month. Hopefully a reload or switch to -epo to offset? not saying this is another 10-11 winter, but in that winter we had a big warm up after Boxing day and then by the 10th of Jan we were back in business.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Ok! That was a good appetizer for winter. What's next? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: not saying this is another 10-11 winter, but in that winter we had a big warm up after Boxing day and then by the 10th of Jan we were back in business.... By the tail end of January the high latitude blocking just completely fell apart, vanished and it never came back again, right through April. Had it stayed, that winter would have easily surpassed 95-96 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: By the tail end of January the high latitude blocking just completely fell apart, vanished and it never came back again, right through April. Had it stayed, that year would have easily surpassed 95-96 We did luck out with warm and dry after that-a bunch of cutters with 40-50 inches of snow on the ground would have been a disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 8 minutes ago, snowman19 said: By the tail end of January the high latitude blocking just completely fell apart, vanished and it never came back again, right through April. Had it stayed, that winter would have easily surpassed 95-96 I had 60 inches by February 1st. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: I had 60 inches by February 1st. there was one 3 inch event around president's day and that was it. I ended up with something like 70 inches on the year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 18 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: A major snowstorm is now blanketing much of the region. By the time the snow ends tomorrow, much of central Pennsylvania to New England will have picked up a foot or more of snow. Estimated total snowfall amounts include: Allentown: 12"-18" Boston: 8"-16" Bridgeport: 8"-16" Hartford: 12"-18" Islip: 5"-10" New York City: 7"-14" Newark: 7"-14" Philadelphia: 4"-8" Poughkeepsie: 12"-18" Providence: 6"-12" Some areas could see 20" or above snowfall amounts. Since 2010, the three biggest December snowstorms for Boston, New York City, and Philadelphia were: Boston: 18.2", December 25-27, 2010 7.1", December 1-3, 2019 6.4", December 17, 2013 New York City: 20.0", December 25-27, 2010 5.0", December 14-15, 2013 4.6", December 9-10, 2017 Philadelphia: 12.4", December 25-27, 2010 8.6", December 8, 2013 4.1", December 9-10, 2017 During the December 10-31, 1950-2019 period, an AO- was the most important teleconnection for a significant Middle Atlantic (6" or more) snowstorm. Since 1950, the following percentage of 6" or greater snowstorms occurred when the AO was negative: Boston: 50%; New York City: 75%; and, Philadelphia: 88%. There were 8 snowstorms that brought 6" or more snow to at least two of the following cities: Boston, New York City, and Philadelphia. 7/8 (88%) occurred when the AO was negative. All storms from the subset from these 8 storms where 10" or more snow fell in at least one of those cities occurred with a negative AO. The most common synoptic pattern when at least two of the aforementioned cities picked up 6" or more snow (63%) was an AO-/PNA+ combination. The most recent such storm was the December 25-27, 2010 "Boxing Day Blizzard." With the persistence of Arctic blocking, uncertainty about the closing days of December has increased. At present, the guidance has backed off somewhat from the warmth that had been shown previously. Historic experience following exceptionally warm November cases suggests that a warmer than normal December remains the base case. Almost 90% of cases with a November mean temperature of 51.5° or above in Central Park (2020 saw the temperature average a record 52.9° in November) went on to record a warmer than normal December and just over three-quarters of such cases saw December register a monthly mean temperature of 40.0° or above. The probability of December's having a 40.0° or above mean temperature has fallen sharply with the development of strong AO blocking. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.2°C for the week centered around December 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.43°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through the winter. The SOI was +28.65. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -3.009. That is the lowest AO value since February 1, 2019 when the AO was -3.315. On December 15 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 0.868 (RMM). The December 14-adjusted amplitude was 1.070. Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is into the final week of December. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 10/11 (91%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. A predominant EPO+/AO+ pattern is very likely for winter 2020-21. It is likely that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas will see a warmer than normal winter with below normal snowfall. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 56% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal December. December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 38.4°. Don - I think you may want to reconsider your prediction of "likely below normal snowfall" as far as I can see only 2 times since the beginning of record keeping at Central Park when they recorded at least 10 inches of snow in December they had below normal seasonal snowfall - most of the time when they had at least 10 inches of snow in December they recorded above normal snowfall for the season with some years around normal............. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 BRRR 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 13 minutes ago, MJO812 said: BRRR Euro has MJO going into 8 and 1 around Christmas,,In the COD but still a big change.GFS has it in 6 and 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 There have been 29 Decembers with 10 or more inches of snow in NYC, but stupidly this morning I included this year being the 29th December with 10 inches or more in the calculations below. So there have been 28 full seasons in NYC with 10 or more inches of snow in December and here's how they fared. I'm sure most don't care but I do strive for accuracy, so here's the corrected percentages. 24 of those winters have then had 30 or more inches for the season or 85.7% 17 of the 28 have had 40 or more inches of snow for the season or 60.7% 9 of the 28 have had 50 or more inches of snow for the season or 32.1% 4 of the 28 have had 60 or more inches of snow for the season or 14.2% 1 of the 28 have had 70 or more inches of snow for the season or 3.6% 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Still far out, but both GFS and CMC very cold with a chance of snow around Xmas 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, David-LI said: Still far out, but both GFS and CMC very cold with a chance of snow around Xmas looks like a PV dump of cold on the CMC into the east 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 On 11/28/2020 at 9:03 AM, SnoSki14 said: Best chance for snow will be during the retrogression or the Dec 6-13 period. Good call Just missed it by a few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 that was fun to track, obviously missed the “big” one but felt good to track something again, hopefully we aren’t done. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Someone may have already posted this but the 1:00pm update in Central Park was 10.5 inches for the storm. The city now needs only 0.8 inches by the end of the month to reach a 30 inch average, when the new 30 year averages are calculated next month. Amazing when it looked like that was a lock 2 and half years ago and it's coming right down to the wire. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 On 12/9/2020 at 3:45 PM, DTWXRISK said: MILLER B EVENT SEEMS LIKELY DEC 16 Wow good call DT On 12/10/2020 at 7:22 AM, Allsnow said: This is definitely not last winter. Snow mean on the eps looks amazing. @bluewave look at this blocking!!! Not bad for 180 hours out 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 17, 2020 Author Share Posted December 17, 2020 44 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Not bad for 180 hours out. The big blocking high that quickly developed over the Arctic in the 6-10 day forecast period closed the deal. But the EPS did a good job forecasting the overall pattern. One of the better EPS performances from late November into December. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now