EastonSN+ Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 13 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Modoki La Nina years and snow totals at Central Park: 73-74 -23.5 75-76 17.3 83-84 25.4 88-89 8.1 98-99 12.7 00- 01 35.0 08 -09 27.6 10 -11 61.9 16 -17 30.2 Negative 23.5 in 74 had to hurt. JK. Thanks for the data. I would gladly take 00-01. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 On 12/5/2020 at 9:18 PM, donsutherland1 said: That was a really nice storm: http://wintercenter.homestead.com/photodec2003b.html For local regions, looks like NYC is in the lead with their warmest year on record, as are other cities in the northeast and Florida also (Miami, Orlando, Tampa). NYC is getting perilously close to a 60 degree yearly temp average and Miami is approaching 80 for a yearly average... Think we have our warmest year on record, Don? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 2 hours ago, jfklganyc said: Can we stop posting this? The region gets 20-30 inches of snow per year. Let’s stop making it sound like we live in Jacksonville. it is perfectly legitimate to expect and look forward to snow of some sort in the NYC metro snow that changes to rain is garbage, I'd rather have zero snow and 70 degree temps and if that's in our future so be it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 ` 10 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Negative 23.5 in 74 had to hurt. JK. Thanks for the data. I would gladly take 00-01. Corrected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: You should move to florida dont worry florida will be coming here soon enough and florida, well, they'll be the atlantis of the future (with much less advanced tech of course.) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 3 hours ago, forkyfork said: wow i had no idea you wanted it to snow more personally I'm more excited right now about getting the warmest year on record....of course this record will probably only last one year lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 3 hours ago, psv88 said: Close the shades for December, at least New England ski resorts will do well. yes and economically thats all that really matters, that the ski resorts do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 2 hours ago, jfklganyc said: Can we stop posting this? The region gets 20-30 inches of snow per year. Let’s stop making it sound like we live in Jacksonville. it is perfectly legitimate to expect and look forward to snow of some sort in the NYC metro nyc got far less then 20 inches of snow last year.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 Just now, nycwinter said: nyc got far less then 20 inches of snow last year.... people talk about these averages as if they are some kind of certainty lol. Averages dont mean anything, especially in a changing climate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 2 minutes ago, nycwinter said: nyc got far less then 20 inches of snow last year.... Not sure if trolling, or if you don’t know what an average is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: people talk about these averages as if they are some kind of certainty lol. Averages dont mean anything, especially in a changing climate. yeah...snowfall averages have gone uo except for the last two years... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 Just now, uncle W said: yeah...snowfall averages have gone uo except for the last two years... and there is so much variability that it doesn't even make sense to use averages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 6 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Not sure if trolling, or if you don’t know what an average is. averages dont mean anything when it comes to snowfall- as a matter of fact, a so-called "average" snowfall season is the least likely outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: dont worry florida will be coming here soon enough and florida, well, they'll be the atlantis of the future (with much less advanced tech of course.) you mean there will be palm trees next to the Welcome to NY signs on the George Washington Bridge like they have on I95 entering Florida?...I think the palms start in South Carolina on 95 so they are heading north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: and there is so much variability that it doesn't even make sense to use averages. you mean like 35" in 1917-18...3.8" in 1918-19 and then 50" in 1919-20?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 6 minutes ago, uncle W said: you mean there will be palm trees next to the Welcome to NY signs on the George Washington Bridge like they have on I95 entering Florida?...I think the palms start in South Carolina on 95 so they are heading north... There were palm tree forests at the Arctic Circle when dinosaurs roamed the Earth. Just sayin.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 5 minutes ago, uncle W said: you mean like 35" in 1917-18...3.8" in 1918-19 and then 50" in 1919-20?... yes- or going from single digital to 50 inches in consecutive years (2001-02 and 2002-03) actually 2000-01 to 2001-02 to 2002-03 was a fair repeat of the years you quoted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 8 minutes ago, uncle W said: you mean there will be palm trees next to the Welcome to NY signs on the George Washington Bridge like they have on I95 entering Florida?...I think the palms start in South Carolina on 95 so they are heading north... I like the crepe myrtles we have on Long Island now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 Nice storm signal for mid month. Thats all we have right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I like the crepe myrtles we have on Long Island now. I have one and enjoy it. If I live long enough to have a a thriving coconut palm in the postage stamp it will be fun seeing how the tree rats deal with the fruit. As always ... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 49 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: For local regions, looks like NYC is in the lead with their warmest year on record, as are other cities in the northeast and Florida also (Miami, Orlando, Tampa). NYC is getting perilously close to a 60 degree yearly temp average and Miami is approaching 80 for a yearly average... Think we have our warmest year on record, Don? I expect that NYC will fall short of having its warmest year on record. LaGuardia has perhaps a better shot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 26 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: I expect that NYC will fall short of having its warmest year on record. LaGuardia has perhaps a better shot. But I thought the last 10 days are supposed to be warm? How much of a difference is there between our current average and the warmest year on record and what year was it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 1 hour ago, jm1220 said: There were palm tree forests at the Arctic Circle when dinosaurs roamed the Earth. Just sayin.... Shhhhh. You're not allowed to say that today. If it didn't happen in the last 150 years, and can't be blamed on humans and fossil fuels, it DID NOT HAPPEN. 2 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 Will post two topics by 815 PM. Both shakey but there is so much interest in winter that I think there is enough model evidence to get something out there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 8 minutes ago, wdrag said: Will post two topics by 815 PM. Both shakey but there is so much interest in winter that I think there is enough model evidence to get something out there. Thanks Walt! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 24 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said: Shhhhh. You're not allowed to say that today. If it didn't happen in the last 150 years, and can't be blamed on humans and fossil fuels, it DID NOT HAPPEN. Lofl 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 9, 2020 Author Share Posted December 9, 2020 2 hours ago, LibertyBell said: I like the crepe myrtles we have on Long Island now. Yeah, they are great. We have a bunch of them around here. I like them better than all the windmill palms that have been popping up in the area. https://www.bbg.org/news/bloom_alert_crape_myrtle http://www.islandwidepalmtrees.com/windmill-palms.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 37 minutes ago, Rjay said: Lofl I think he missed the point.....by a bit lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 7 minutes ago, JoshSnow said: You’re wrong bro. There’s definitely a chance this month to hit. December 15th....it's the "BlueWave" storm. He mentioned it first so it's going to be named after him if it happens. If not....it's the "BlueWave" bust lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 New York City received its first snowfall of winter 2020-21 today. However, it was not measurable. Just a trace of snow was reported. Through today, the preliminary AO average for December is -0.949. On 75% of days, the AO has been negative, including 63% when the AO has been -1.000 or below. Nevertheless, a warm anomaly has prevailed during the first eight days of December. Moreover, December remains likely to finish with a warm anomaly. Such situations are not common. December 2001 was one such case. The AO was negative on all 31 days and at or below -1.000 on 53% of days. The AO averaged -1.276 with a minimum value of -3.293 on December 28. At New York City, the monthly mean temperature was 44.1° (then the warmest December on record, which was eclipsed in 2015) and only a trace of snow was recorded. Tomorrow will likely remain cooler than normal. Some snow flurries and snow showers are likely. Some parts of the region could pick up a coating of snow. Afterward, milder air will move into the region. Somewhat cooler air could return to the region after next weekend. A sustained warmer pattern could begin to develop toward the winter solstice. The closing 10 days of December could wind up generally warmer than normal. The EPS weeklies and new subseasonal guidance are in strong agreement that the last week of December will likely be warmer than normal. The latest CFSv2 weekly guidance favors much warmer than normal readings. Historic experience following exceptionally warm November cases suggests that a warmer than normal December remains the base case. Almost 90% of cases with a November mean temperature of 51.5° or above in Central Park (2020 saw the temperature average a record 52.9° in November) went on to record a warmer than normal December and just over three-quarters of such cases saw December register a monthly mean temperature of 40.0° or above. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around December 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.77°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.35°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through the winter. The SOI was +7.73. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.261. On December 7 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.677 (RMM). The December 6-adjusted amplitude was 0.784. Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is likely through the first two weeks of December. The warming above 3 mb in response to recent strong Wave 1 activity could abate toward or just after mid-month. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 10/11 (91%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. A predominant EPO+/AO+ pattern is very likely for winter 2020-21. It is likely that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas will see a warmer than normal winter with below normal snowfall. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 73% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal December. December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 40.0°. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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