December 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[Allsnow]

32 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s the type of pattern that could work for New England.

Any pattern works for New England lol

[WarrenCtyWx]

This makes me wonder if there have been any notable cases of a great Atlantic overcoming an unfavorable (or even terrible) Pacific, leading to  great period, month or even winter. I'd be curious to know from anyone more knowledgeable. 

[MJO812]

12 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Any pattern works for New England lol

Caribou would be a great place to live

[cleetussnow]

4 minutes ago, WarrenCtyWx said:

This makes me wonder if there have been any notable cases of a great Atlantic overcoming an unfavorable (or even terrible) Pacific, leading to  great period, month or even winter. I'd be curious to know from anyone more knowledgeable. 

IIRC 2010 was a strong La Niña and fairly hostile pacific generally , but there was a raging NAO which delivered the goods for the DC area several times...I think there was 40 inches OTG in the burbs of Maryland.  We got a storm or 2 out of it, but we missed the big ones to our south.  The strength of the NAO hurt us.  

[jm1220]

Just now, cleetussnow said:

IIRC 2010 was a strong La Niña and fairly hostile pacific generally , but there was a raging NAO which delivered the goods for the DC area several times...I think there was 40 inches OTG in the burbs of Maryland.  We got a storm or 2 out of it, but we missed the big ones to our south.  The strength of the NAO hurt us.  

If you mean 2009-10 it was a moderate Nino with a strong Subtropical jet, which is great for places south of Philly. 2010-11 was a moderate Nina I believe with strong blocking, which was a much better winter from Philly on north. DC had much less from what I know. 

[Eduardo]

12 minutes ago, WarrenCtyWx said:

This makes me wonder if there have been any notable cases of a great Atlantic overcoming an unfavorable (or even terrible) Pacific, leading to  great period, month or even winter. I'd be curious to know from anyone more knowledgeable. 

96-96 and 10-11 come to mind.

[Brian5671]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Caribou would be a great place to live

boring.  Nothing there

[Dan76]

only Caribou

[romba]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Models starting to catch on to the vortex getting attacked ?

Euro with a nice track, weak on precip:

[NEG NAO]

Just now, romba said:

Euro cookin':

Rain Rain and more rain - pattern does not support a frozen solution for most of NYC metro.................

 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

Rain Rain and more rain - pattern does not support a frozen solution for most of NYC metro.................

 

Its really active . We should be patient. 

At least we aren't seeing alot of cutters which is great. Time to start tracking again.

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, romba said:

Euro with a nice track, weak on precip:

Back to tracking once again

Nice highs showing up to the north. Models are a mess right now figuring  out the pattern. 

[romba]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Back to tracking once again

Nice highs showing up to the north. Models are a mess right now figuring  out the pattern. 

Too often those HPs slowly back off and we get Cut

[psv88]

7 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

yeah another thread will be created  to track another mostly rain event - better then nothing I guess.......

Close the shades for December, at least New England ski resorts will do well.

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Close the shades for December, at least New England ski resorts will do well.

 Close the shades on Dec 8? You can do so.

[NEG NAO]

5 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Close the shades for December, at least New England ski resorts will do well.

up and down the east coast ski resorts are doing well check out cams from Sugar Mountain North Carolina

Sugar Mountain Resort Web Cams - Sugar Mountain Resort (skisugar.com)

[wdrag]

18 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

yeah another thread will be created  to track another mostly rain event - better then nothing I guess.......

I just checked for myself.  I don't want to waste forum time on a 1 inch gust 45 MPH routine event.  However... I or yourselves can post a thread topic. 

I just need to build some confidence.  It's been on my radar but I'm not willing to commit a thread this far out.... looking at marginality for the NYC forum-mainly I84 corridor,  but certainly potential, any, date 16,18.

My first interest lies in a possible (12z/8 GEFS 50% chance) first T snow (if ASOS sees it as snow), lower prob measurable (0.1") CP sometime between 10A-2P Wednesday 12/9.  Normal first date of measurable in the entire CP (thread  X) database is around 12/7. With hope... but not necessarily science yet. 

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

I agree

I wish we can just go back to the winters of where we saw 30+ winters.

[forkyfork]

14 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I wish we can just go back to the winters of where we saw 30+ winters.

wow i had no idea you wanted it to snow more

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Any pattern works for New England lol

 

Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx) warmest winters
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Season	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2015-2016	21.5	0
2	2009-2010	21.1	0
3	2001-2002	19.2	0
4	2019-2020	17.9	0
5	1959-1960	17.8	0

 

Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx) - Oct through Sep snowiest seasons
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Season	Total Snowfall	NYC
1	2007-2008	197.8	11.9
2	1954-1955	181.1	11.5
3	2018-2019	165.4	20.5
4	1981-1982	159.8	24.6
5	1972-1973	153.0	2.8
6	2019-2020	151.9	4.8

 

 

[the_other_guy]

42 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

up and down the east coast ski resorts are doing well check out cams from Sugar Mountain North Carolina

Sugar Mountain Resort Web Cams - Sugar Mountain Resort (skisugar.com)

You obviously haven’t checked out the catskills. A freaking disaster

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

You obviously haven’t checked out the catskills. A freaking disaster

They haven't had alot of snow

[MJO812]

31 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

wow i had no idea you wanted it to snow more

You should move to florida

[Snowshack]

19 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

You obviously haven’t checked out the catskills. A freaking disaster

Further north too ...I was at Gore over the weekend, completely bare except under the snow guns.

[nycwinter]

if you want to have snowy winters from now many of us should consider moving either to the snow belts or northern newengland.. cause it won't be happening like it was the last 20 years in the city and surrounding areas ..

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

up and down the east coast ski resorts are doing well check out cams from Sugar Mountain North Carolina

Sugar Mountain Resort Web Cams - Sugar Mountain Resort (skisugar.com)

Those areas did well with the upslope favored events over the last couple of weeks. The lake effect/upper low system from a week or so ago for OH/W PA also produced a ton of upslope snow down to NC. 

[the_other_guy]

6 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

if you want to have snowy winters from now many of us should consider moving either to the snow belts or northern newengland.. cause it won't be happening like it was the last 20 years in the city and surrounding areas ..

Can we stop posting this?

The region gets 20-30 inches of snow per year.

Let’s stop making it sound like we live in Jacksonville.

 

it is perfectly legitimate to expect and look forward to snow of some sort in the NYC metro

[Dan76]

Maybe DC

[snowman19]

20 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Earlier today, a system brought snow to parts of Virginia. Richmond picked up 1.0" snow. Another weak system could bring some snow flurries and snow showers to the region late tomorrow night or early Wednesday morning. Parts of the area could pick up a coating. Before then, tomorrow will be partly sunny and cool.

Through mid-week, temperatures will run somewhat below normal. Milder weather will return for a time afterward, before the next push of cooler air arrives. Through mid-December, no exceptional cold is likely.

Meanwhile, another round of near record and record warmth is likely in parts of western Canada through mid-week.

A warmer pattern could begin to develop toward the winter solstice. The closing 10 days of December could wind up generally warmer than normal. The EPS weeklies and new subseasonal guidance are in strong agreement that the last week of December will likely be warmer than normal. The duration of the current AO-/PNA+ pattern will be key to how long the developing colder pattern persists.

Statistical guidance based on the ENSO state and teleconnections would typically favor a colder regime for the first half of December in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Both historic experience following exceptionally warm November cases suggest that a warmer than normal December remains the base case even if the first half of the month winds up colder than normal. Almost 90% of cases with a November mean temperature of 51.5° or above in Central Park (2020 saw the temperature average a record 52.9° in November) went on to record a warmer than normal December and just over three-quarters of such cases saw December register a monthly mean temperature of 40.0° or above.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around December 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.77°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.35°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through the winter.

The SOI was +15.15.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.528.

On December 6 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.741 (RMM). The December 5-adjusted amplitude was 1.020.

Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is likely through the first two weeks of December. The warming above 3 mb in response to recent strong Wave 1 activity could abate toward or just after mid-month.

Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 10/11 (91%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. A predominant EPO+/AO+ pattern is very likely for winter 2020-21. It is likely that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas will see a warmer than normal winter with below normal snowfall.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 67% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal December. December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 40.0°.

 

The trend toward a Modoki La Niña event continues....eastern ENSO regions (1+2, 3) continue to warm while the western regions (3.4, 4) continue to cool. The CFS is still insisting that there is going to be a secondary strong peak in region 3.4 come January.....

[NEG NAO]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

The trend toward a Modoki La Niña event continues....eastern ENSO regions (1+2, 3) continue to warm while the western regions (3.4, 4) continue to cool. The CFS is still insisting that there is going to be a secondary strong peak in region 3.4 come January.....

Modoki La Nina years and snow totals at Central Park:

73-74  23.5

75-76   17.3

83-84    25.4

88-89    8.1

98-99   12.7

00- 01  35.0

08 -09  27.6

10 -11  61.9

16 -17  30.2