cleetussnow Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 21 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Can’t be too much worse. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 2 hours ago, bluewave said: The 10-11 winter was all about a continuation of the 187 year record -NAO pattern that began in 09-10. So the record -NAO had a greater influence than the MJO. We can remember how unfavorable the Pacific was from December 1-25 with all the fantasy snowstorms that showed up with the -PNA. But the -NAO set a record 500 height height anomaly in late December. This allowed a retrogression in heights boosting the PNA and setting up the record 60 inches of snow from late December to late January. But once the blocking faded in early February, we began to move toward a more +EPO +NAO that dominated the 11-12 winter. https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wea.660 In conclusion, the winter of 2009/2010 was notable for the record negative NAO index in the 187‐year record of Jones etal. (1997), indicating the very unusual nature of atmospheric circulation over the Atlantic/European region. Despite 2009/2010 being a cold winter over the UK and Europe, it was actually around 0.5 to 1 degC warmer than might have been expected given this extreme pattern of atmospheric circulation. Considering observations averaged across the globe, winter 2009/2010 was one of the warmest on record. We were on pace to break the 1996 record if the blocking didn't fall apart . We need winters to come back like 2013-2014. 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: The MJO is croaking in 4/5 that’s not good for sustainable cold. We need something to shake the pattern up or it’s very meh. Lots of 40/50’s with rain Major lakes cutter 3 minutes ago, cleetussnow said: Can’t be too much worse. Can't be worst than last winter Can it ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 Remember when the ocean use to freeze over during the winter in NYC ? Those were the days. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 Our worst winters: 02, 12 and 20 we managed a 2 to 4" event in mid to late Jan. Let's hope for that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 43 minutes ago, MJO812 said: We were on pace to break the 1996 record if the blocking didn't fall apart . We need winters to come back like 2013-2014. Major lakes cutter Can't be worst than last winter Can it ? Yes it can 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 15 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Our worst winters: 02, 12 and 20 we managed a 2 to 4" event in mid to late Jan. Let's hope for that Boring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 Remember when it use to snow in December? Those were the days. Remember the 40 + inch winters ? Those were the days 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Remember when it use to snow in December? Those were the days. Remember the 40 + inch winters ? Those were the days It barely snowed in December the entire decade of the 80s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 remember when we in the city during the winter had many nights in the single digits those days have been gone for a decade or longer.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 15 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Remember when it use to snow in December? Those were the days. Remember the 40 + inch winters ? Those were the days you had one two years ago 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 22 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Remember when it use to snow in December? Those were the days. Remember the 40 + inch winters ? Those were the days If this month turns into a dud, we are in very big trouble for the rest of winter. Bad November’s and December’s in moderate to strong La Ninas are the kiss of death for winter in our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarrenCtyWx Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 15 minutes ago, nycwinter said: remember when we in the city during the winter had many nights in the single digits those days have been gone for a decade or longer.. 13-14 and 14-15 weren't that long ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 4 minutes ago, JoshSnow said: Who cares! I hope it warms up You'll get your wish! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: I saw that this morning. It’s ugly, real ugly, it’s showing an 11-12 type winter scenario....hard to believe that we would have back to back winters this bad, they are usually separated by a bunch of years in between 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarrenCtyWx Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 I suppose we can hope for a well-timed storm at some point from January through March, a la 2/22/08. Surely that's not completely out of the realm of possibility? I may just be grasping at straws. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 20 minutes ago, forkyfork said: you had one two years ago I did ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I did ? a lot of us got a 40+ winter in 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 It stayed at 32 until 11:30 am out here; dropping into the 20s tonight. With the wind, it’s cold. Woodstove is burning some cherry; smells great. The weather is what it is; sometimes I wonder if it wasn’t more enjoyable to track potential with out all of these “indices” telegraphing that winter is over, before it begins. I also have to remind myself that I live in North Jersey and not Vermont (at least until my wife gives me the go ahead to move up to the Green Mts.). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 8 minutes ago, forkyfork said: a lot of us got a 40+ winter in 2018 I think it got ~10 below at my house (HPN) in early January of that winter as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 27 minutes ago, forkyfork said: a lot of us got a 40+ winter in 2018 Not me =( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 10 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Not me =( Central Park got 40.9 did you measure yours accurately ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Central Park got 40.9 did you measure yours accurately ? I got in the 30s. I live in the south shore of Brooklyn so I usually get less amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: Central Park got 40.9 did you measure yours accurately ? In the old days that would mean everyone else got more. As always .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 6, 2020 Author Share Posted December 6, 2020 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: We were on pace to break the 1996 record if the blocking didn't fall apart . We need winters to come back like 2013-2014. Major lakes cutter Can't be worst than last winter Can it ? Without some kind of record -EPO or -NAO blocking, we can’t get cold winters anymore. 09-10, 10-11, 13-14, and 14-15 were our only 4 cold winters out of the last 11 years. 09-10 to 10-11 was the strongest -NAO of 187 years that I posted earlier. 13-14 and 14-15 featured the record -EPO patterns. The -EPO developed during the summer of 2013 and intensified during November and carried into the next spring. 14-15 saw a similar extreme -EPO combined with El Niño for the backloaded cold. But since the super El Niño in 15-16, all our winters have been warm with intervals when the unfavorable MJO phases ran the table. Some winters like the 18-19 and 19-20 featured the unfavorable MJO phases dominating for warmth and lack of snow. 15-16 to 17-18 had the unfavorable MJO for warmth but we got intervals of blocking for snowy outcomes. Papers on our only cold recent winters: Winter 2009/2010 temperatures and a record‐breaking North Atlantic Oscillation index https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wea.660 The North American winter ‘dipole’ and extremes activity: a CMIP5 assessment https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/asl2.565 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 Just now, Allsnow said: Christmas looks toasty 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 13 minutes ago, Allsnow said: At one point Christmas looked cold lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 11 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Good thing that’s a long way away. Even this year I would like a white Christmas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 6 minutes ago, mattinpa said: Good thing that’s a long way away. Even this year I would like a white Christmas. Yep long range forecasts are a crap shoot. Went from a cold long range to a warm one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 15 minutes ago, MJO812 said: At one point Christmas looked cold lol No it didn’t... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 DT offers hope in the main winter thread....(weakening Nina and possible SSW) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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