SnowGoose69 Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 The difference this year is the -NAO is actually real in that over the next week it will be in place. I wouldn't be so sure the forecast on the EPS at 10-15 days of the -NAO are going to be fantasy as they have been most of the last decade. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 34 minutes ago, qg_omega said: You can’t miss opportunities and expect a good winter, this one really hurts and likely the only opportunity until after Xmas Except it wasn't that close. Temps were in the low 40s all night. It's not like it was mid 30s and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: Except it wasn't that close. Temps were in the low 40s all night. It's not like it was mid 30s and rain. Its 37 here right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 3 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Its 37 here right now NYC is still at 40-41 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 30 minutes ago, qg_omega said: No it was a historic storm not a bust at all I don’t recall it being a bust. It was never supposed to be very good here and it favored I-90 for days. I had 2-3” maybe from the rotting CCB. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 41 minutes ago, qg_omega said: No it was a historic storm not a bust at all Depends on the area I didnt get anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 Still think we have a opportunity at something mid month before the pattern goes to trash 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 2 hours ago, snowman19 said: There is now consensus among the ensembles that the TPV moves into AK (+EPO) come next weekend. It’s probably lights out for awhile, that’s a stable pattern, the vortex is not going to be in a big rush to move out We have a opportunity between the 13-20th. The eps snow mean was pretty high due that timeframe. After that is when it will get ugly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 11 minutes ago, Allsnow said: We have a opportunity between the 13-20th. The eps snow mean was pretty high due that timeframe. After that is when it will get ugly Possibly....you definitely don’t want December to be a dud month in a La Niña winter. It would be a very, very bad sign for the rest of winter, historically speaking, especially given the much warmer than normal November Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 Just now, snowman19 said: Possibly....you definitely don’t want December to be a dud month in a La Niña winter. It would be a very, very bad sign for the rest of winter, historically speaking, especially given the much warmer than normal November The eps and geps have a big -nao after the 18th that keeps the pattern serviceable. Is that true? Probably not lol. Only positive I see is that fact that the TPV remains in Canada/Ak, it will keep cold in Canada. If that area starts to go above normal then yeah it would be close the shades time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 7 minutes ago, bluewave said: We would probably need the lead wave around the 12th to come out weaker so the wave around the 15th doesn’t get suppressed. That may be the best chance that NYC gets for some measurable snowfall this month. We’ll see.... 12z cmc at 240 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: Except it wasn't that close. Temps were in the low 40s all night. It's not like it was mid 30s and rain. Thank you! Lot of wishcasting on here. my temp actually climbed over last hour. wet flakes were just that, not a region wide transition as the storm exited. Temps are still in the 40s. Exactly as predicted all week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 3 hours ago, crossbowftw3 said: In conjecture with this, some crazy impressive analogs have been tossed around, which include both super outbreak years, and 2008 (Super Tuesday, early January Outbreak being among most notable). Not to say events of those magnitudes occur but overall it paints a very ugly picture this is exactly why I'm gungho on geo-engineering remember how awful 2011 was, we could save so many lives if we prevented this kind of weather occurring in the first place by being able to control ENSO and other factors. Maybe in a few decades we'll have the tech to do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: We have a opportunity between the 13-20th. The eps snow mean was pretty high due that timeframe. After that is when it will get ugly and the 20th might be a bit too optimistic. it's probably more like 13-18..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 2 hours ago, bluewave said: This would have been a good opportunity if we had a cold November like the last few years. But there was no cold around for this storm following the warmest November on record. We had more cold to start last December so NYC was able to at least pick up 1.6”. But this will be the 2nd December in a row that areas far enough north get an impressive first week of December snow. I dont remember any historic storm last December lol- who was it historic for, Vermont? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 5, 2020 Author Share Posted December 5, 2020 5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I dont remember any historic storm last December lol- who was it historic for, Vermont? https://www.weather.gov/aly/1-3Dec2019Snow Overview A major winter storm impacted eastern New York and western New England December 1-3, 2019. Snowfall began during the late morning and early afternoon of the 1st ahead of a weakening low pressure system approaching from the western Great Lakes. Snowfall rates of 1-2" per hour occurred from the afternoon into the evening, with the heaviest along the I-90 corridor. As the primary low pressure system weakened, it transferred its energy to a coastal low, which strengthened as it remained nearly stationary for much of the 2nd. This allowed snow to continue to accumulate throughout the day. As the low finally pulled away late on the 2nd into the early morning hours of the 3rd, one final heavy snow band crossed the area before the snow finally pulled out prior to daybreak on the 3rd. Storm total snowfall amounts were heaviest in the central Mohawk Valley, Helderbergs, northeastern Catskills, Capital District, southern Vermont, and the Berkshires, where totals of 18-28" were common. The 22.6" recorded at Albany International Airport made this the 8th largest snowstorm on record, the 4th largest December storm, and the largest since the March 1993 superstorm. It snowed for 39 hours and 14 minutes consecutively. Many schools were closed for two consecutive days, and numerous flights were delayed or cancelled. The governor declared a state of emergency for several of the hard-hit counties, and deployed the National Guard to assist in cleanup efforts. Speed restrictions were also placed on area interstate highways. Amounts of 8-18" were common elsewhere, except for southern portions of Dutchess and Litchfield Counties due to warmer temperatures and mixed precipitation, and northern portions of Herkimer, Hamilton, Warren, and Washington Counties which were on the fringe of the heavier precipitation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 Oh yeah I remember that as the Albany storm, I never thought we had a chance with that.....we classify some storms as near misses, but that was an inland storm all the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Oh yeah I remember that as the Albany storm, I never thought we had a chance with that.....we classify some storms as near misses, but that was an inland storm all the way. And the jan storm wasn't a great track either but the airmass was cold enough for a few inches 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 52 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: Thank you! Lot of wishcasting on here. my temp actually climbed over last hour. wet flakes were just that, not a region wide transition as the storm exited. Temps are still in the 40s. Exactly as predicted all week Who's wishcasting besides the 2 Tonys? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 Picked up 0.68" of rain for the day. Storm total rainfall 0.83" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 Hey is Paul Bastardis guy still on this forum? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 16 minutes ago, rossi said: Hey is Paul Bastardis guy still on this forum? Is he a "Jersey Guy" ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 Just now, NEG NAO said: Is he a "Jersey Guy" ? Yes from Monmouth county!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 36 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: And the jan storm wasn't a great track either but the airmass was cold enough for a few inches I fondly remember that as the best storm we got all "winter." Actually besides the December and January events, did we even get anything else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 Just now, LibertyBell said: I fondly remember that as the best storm we got all "winter." Actually besides the December and January events, did we even get anything else? A few squalls 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: A few squalls Yeah I remember that now too, and even that wasn't as great as the epic one we got the winter prior to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 Just now, LibertyBell said: Yeah I remember that now too, and even that wasn't as great as the epic one we got the winter prior to that. No the Jan 19 one was the best I've ever seen 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: No the Jan 19 one was the best I've ever seen Yeah Jan 2019 was my best too. That was 2 winters ago though, the one last winter, 2019-20, was okay but not as great as the one in Jan 2019. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 5, 2020 Author Share Posted December 5, 2020 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: Oh yeah I remember that as the Albany storm, I never thought we had a chance with that.....we classify some storms as near misses, but that was an inland storm all the way. 3-21-18 was the last time that a the coast had heavier totals than inland. https://www.weather.gov/okx/storm03212018 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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