LibertyBell Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 4 hours ago, bluewave said: The warm pools where the East and West Coast ridges keep getting stuck really stand out. It also looks like the warm blob in the eastern IO could be why the MJO has been stalling near phase 4. That North Atlantic SST pattern may also be working in tandem with the PV to make the long range -NAO forecasts biased too negative. question Chris pretty basic....why dont those warm and cold pools mix and even out the temperatures across the Pacific? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 Picked up 0.15" of rain for the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Don any idea if this will be a cold and dry or cold and stormy pattern? If it doesn't snow the cold will be worthless. There will probably be at least one more shot at winter precipitation before the pattern changes. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: There will probably be at least one more shot at winter precipitation before the pattern changes. Pattern changes to what ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Pattern changes to what ? Nina Pacific run garbage which means cutters and the huge SE ridge. Dec into early Jan is our shot IMO for this winter, and this probably ends up as a strong Nina. The system behind this one could've had a shot but looks like too much wave interference along with this one not being far enough gone to work. Even the 10-11 Nina winter pretty much ended after the 1/27/11 storm. Nina winters are front loaded here. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 2 hours ago, jm1220 said: Nina Pacific run garbage which means cutters and the huge SE ridge. Dec into early Jan is our shot IMO for this winter, and this probably ends up as a strong Nina. The system behind this one could've had a shot but looks like too much wave interference along with this one not being far enough gone to work. Even the 10-11 Nina winter pretty much ended after the 1/27/11 storm. Nina winters are front loaded here. why is it that everyone yaps about la ninas being so cool on a global level and we always get screwed over by them unless they are weak and come after an el nino the previous winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 Absolutely pouring in Monmouth County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 Picked up 0.56" of rain so far today. Storm total so far 0.71" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 The next 8 days are averaging 40degs.(36/44). Making it 35degs., or about -3.0. The three main models are all snowless for their durations. 47*(99%RH) here at 6am, rain. 44* by 8am. 42* by 9am. 46* by 2pm with clearing skies. 48* by 3pm. 49* at 3:15pm. 46* at 4pm. 45* at 5pm. 41* by 8pm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 12 hours ago, bluewave said: The warm pools where the East and West Coast ridges keep getting stuck really stand out. It also looks like the warm blob in the eastern IO could be why the MJO has been stalling near phase 4. That North Atlantic SST pattern may also be working in tandem with the PV to make the long range -NAO forecasts biased too negative. The Niña associated Aleutian ridge is showing up on all ensemble guidance now, all the new runs of EPS, GEPS, GEFS have it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 5 hours ago, MJO812 said: Pattern changes to what ? SE ridge and a torch 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 5, 2020 Author Share Posted December 5, 2020 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: The Niña associated Aleutian ridge is showing up on all ensemble guidance now, all the new runs of EPS, GEPS, GEFS have it The +EPO continues to beat expectations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 Morning thoughts... Today will be rainy and cool. Temperatures will likely top out in the lower and middle 40s this morning or early this afternoon in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 45° Newark: 45° Philadelphia: 46° The storm will likely bring accumulating snow to parts of New England, but will be a “near miss” for most of the Middle Atlantic region into southern New England. Final Snowfall Estimates: Boston: 3”-6” Caribou: 8”-14” Concord: 6”-12” Hartford: 2”-4” Portland: 4”-8” Providence: 2”-4” Worcester: 7”-14” In the wake of today’s storm, a period of colder weather will follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 6 hours ago, MJO812 said: Pattern changes to what ? One dominated by Pacific flow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 4 hours ago, LibertyBell said: why is it that everyone yaps about la ninas being so cool on a global level and we always get screwed over by them unless they are weak and come after an el nino the previous winter? La NIna favors New England like the storm we are seeing today. Hopefully we get lucky with Miller B storms as we head into winter . The last really good Nina in our area was in 2010-2011 thanks to blocking. 64 inches here for the winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: La NIna favors New England like the storm we are seeing today. Hopefully we get lucky with Miller B storms as we head into winter . The last really good Nina in our area was in 2010-2011 thanks to blocking. 64 inches here for the winter As a side note, moderate nina = big trouble for the south when spring comes around. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 10 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: One dominated by Pacific flow. There is now consensus among the ensembles that the TPV moves into AK (+EPO) come next weekend. It’s probably lights out for awhile, that’s a stable pattern, the vortex is not going to be in a big rush to move out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 7 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said: As a side note, moderate nina = big trouble for the south when spring comes around. In conjecture with this, some crazy impressive analogs have been tossed around, which include both super outbreak years, and 2008 (Super Tuesday, early January Outbreak being among most notable). Not to say events of those magnitudes occur but overall it paints a very ugly picture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 18 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: One dominated by Pacific flow. Hey Don hate to bother, however once the pattern flips to Pacific flow dominace do you feel that we will have "breaks" in the pattern favorable to cold/snow in Jan and Feb, or so you believe we are heading towards a 2011 2012 type pattern stability? 2016 2017 would be a good example of the former. For the latter of course with the "fluke" scenario and March volatility taken aside. The reason I personally feel better about this winter is the warm pool in the NE Pacific and the blocking that for some reason is showing itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 17 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Hey Don hate to bother, however once the pattern flips to Pacific flow dominace do you feel that we will have "breaks" in the pattern favorable to cold/snow in Jan and Feb, or so you believe we are heading towards a 2011 2012 type pattern stability? 2016 2017 would be a good example of the former. For the latter of course with the "fluke" scenario and March volatility taken aside. The reason I personally feel better about this winter is the warm pool in the NE Pacific and the blocking that for some reason is showing itself. I think we will get some breaks. I would be surprised if there are no additional periods where there is opportunity for some cold and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 26 minutes ago, snowman19 said: There is now consensus among the ensembles that the TPV moves into AK (+EPO) come next weekend. It’s probably lights out for awhile, that’s a stable pattern, the vortex is not going to be in a big rush to move out Unfortunately, that appears to be the case. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 42 minutes ago, MJO812 said: La NIna favors New England like the storm we are seeing today. Hopefully we get lucky with Miller B storms as we head into winter . The last really good Nina in our area was in 2010-2011 thanks to blocking. 64 inches here for the winter The 10-11 La Niña was extremely “east-based” at the beginning of winter, November and December. If you recall, as it evolved to become more “west-based” around mid-January, the high latitude blocking began to slowly breakdown, then it completely fell apart at the end of January and that was all she wrote for that winter, the blocking never came back again, right through April..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 4 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The 10-11 La Niña was extremely “east-based” at the beginning of winter, November and December. If you recall, as it evolved to become more “west-based” around mid-January, the high latitude blocking began to slowly breakdown, then it completely fell apart at the end of January and that was all she wrote for that winter, the blocking never came back again, right through April..... NYC would have broke the all time snow record which was set in 1996 if the pattern didn't fall apart. I had 60 inches by Feb 1. Blocking fell apart in the 2nd half of winter and thats when the LA Nina went rampant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 14 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: I think we will get some breaks. I would be surprised if there are no additional periods where there is opportunity for some cold and snow. Thanks Don. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 You can’t miss opportunities and expect a good winter, this one really hurts and likely the only opportunity until after Xmas 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 7 minutes ago, qg_omega said: You can’t miss opportunities and expect a good winter, this one really hurts and likely the only opportunity until after Xmas The storm last December really hurt. This storm was never snow for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 8 minutes ago, bluewave said: This would have been a good opportunity if we had a cold November like the last few years. But there was no cold around for this storm following the warmest November on record. We had more cold to start last December so NYC was able to at least pick up 1.6”. But this will be the 2nd December in a row that areas far enough north get an impressive first week of December snow. The storm last December was a big bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 9 minutes ago, MJO812 said: The storm last December was a big bust. No it was a historic storm not a bust at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 10 minutes ago, MJO812 said: The storm last December was a big bust. Not here-we got 3-4 inches about what was forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 Nice image 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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