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December 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread


bluewave
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  On 12/21/2020 at 12:50 PM, donsutherland1 said:

Morning thoughts...

Today will be variably cloudy. Temperatures will likely top out in the upper 30s and lower 40s across most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 41°

Newark: 41°

Philadelphia: 43°

After some overnight rain or snow showers, tomorrow will become partly cloudy.

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Forecast for the super conjunction early tonight, Don?

 

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  On 12/21/2020 at 11:43 AM, bluewave said:

The timing of the Christmas cold front looks to be early Christmas morning. The EURO and new GFS V16 are pretty close. So the high for the day will be early with falling temperatures after. Another big temperature swing weather pattern.

B7FB0410-D99E-4CD5-8901-591A8FA82B65.gif.5244ec8535067103256671dbfe14b07f.gif
 

6B586E4A-C37F-4AAE-BC08-355317D010FE.gif.ee73bb2ae617a9b241c439c39114d3c2.gif

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when will that big rain and wind storm end that we're supposed to get?  right before the cold comes charging in?  so no precip on Christmas day?

 

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  On 12/21/2020 at 2:37 PM, snowman19 said:

If the tropical convective forcing moves to the Maritime Continent in late January, as is the typical canonical La Niña progression, people won’t be asking “where is the La Niña pattern?” anymore come February 

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there is no such thing as "el nino" or "la nina" patterns, it's all about blocking or lack thereof

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  On 12/21/2020 at 3:14 PM, MJO812 said:

Agree

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we've seen way too many el ninos produce very little snow and some of our biggest snowfall seasons of all time have been la ninas, some of them are front loaded, some are backloaded and some are both.  You cant cookie cutter our snowfall patterns into specific ENSO scenarios, if you could long range forecasting would be a lot easier.

 

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  On 12/21/2020 at 2:53 PM, mikem81 said:

Anyone in here have the links to the Euro tellies? I only have the GFS based ones.

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The Euro has one of the strongest south based blocks that we have seen this time of year. It has a whopping +6 SD 500 mb height anomaly just south of Greenland. A 584 dm ridge east of Newfoundland should be very close to the record in late December.

4AFD939B-0E97-44B4-96F7-98BCAF05B1B1.thumb.jpeg.6976a97df61174fdbc0681e224e6e64d.jpeg

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  On 12/21/2020 at 5:09 PM, bluewave said:

The Euro has one of the strongest south based blocks that we have seen this time of year. It has a whopping +6 SD 500 mb height anomaly just south of Greenland. A 584 dm ridge east of Newfoundland should be very close to the record in late December.

4AFD939B-0E97-44B4-96F7-98BCAF05B1B1.thumb.jpeg.6976a97df61174fdbc0681e224e6e64d.jpeg

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that could suppress the storm track way south-like 09-10

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  On 12/21/2020 at 5:42 PM, donsutherland1 said:

Some drier air has worked in, so there may be several hours of partly to mostly sunny skies in parts of the region. That should leader to temperatures running several degrees above modeled highs. 

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Thank goodness. A nice, slow, reasonable melt the next few days can only help with whatever rain we get Thursday. 

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  On 12/21/2020 at 5:42 PM, Brian5671 said:

that could suppress the storm track way south-like 09-10

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Somehow I doubt that. 

I see the late Dec storm but it looks too warm right now. Climo is more favorable so can't rule out snows even to NYC though.

I think 1st week of Jan will offer better potential for this regions as pacific improves and blocking gets more established. 

I noticed the GEFS seemed to capture the Arctic blocking better than EPS in the long range. EPS has been playing catch-up these past few days.

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  On 12/21/2020 at 3:12 PM, LibertyBell said:

there is no such thing as "el nino" or "la nina" patterns, it's all about blocking or lack thereof

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I don't know if I'd go that far.  Certainly, blocking can overwhelm ENSO's influence and, in that respect, might be a greater determinant of sensible weather here (especially in the last few years of atmospheric coupling weirdness).  But that all doesn't mean there's "no such thing as 'el nino' or 'la nina' patterns[.]"

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  On 12/21/2020 at 7:48 PM, Eduardo said:

I don't know if I'd go that far.  Certainly, blocking can overwhelm ENSO's influence and, in that respect, might be a greater determinant of sensible weather here (especially in the last few years of atmospheric coupling weirdness).  But that all doesn't mean there's "no such thing as 'el nino' or 'la nina' patterns[.]"

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I think there are Nino and Nina correlations in temp and precip distribution as evidenced by analogue data, but specific patterns from one nino or nina year to the next are varied, depending on the phase of the ENSO cycle, strength and other factors. 

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  On 12/21/2020 at 3:12 PM, LibertyBell said:

there is no such thing as "el nino" or "la nina" patterns, it's all about blocking or lack thereof

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To say that ENSO is totally meaningless and that there’s no such thing as El Niño or La Niña patterns is completely and totally absurd. That’s ludicrous 

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  On 12/21/2020 at 5:42 PM, donsutherland1 said:

Some drier air has worked in, so there may be several hours of partly to mostly sunny skies in parts of the region. That should leader to temperatures running several degrees above modeled highs. 

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Warmed up nicely.  46 in Little Falls right now.  There was a lot of melting today. 

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  On 12/21/2020 at 7:48 PM, Eduardo said:

I don't know if I'd go that far.  Certainly, blocking can overwhelm ENSO's influence and, in that respect, might be a greater determinant of sensible weather here (especially in the last few years of atmospheric coupling weirdness).  But that all doesn't mean there's "no such thing as 'el nino' or 'la nina' patterns[.]"

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Yeah, this month looks like a continuation of the atmospheric coupling weirdness of recent years. The 500 mb pattern is much more El Niño-like. Especially the deep Aleutian Low and +PNA. I guess that this makes up for the last 2 winters which were technically El Niño with La Niña-like 500 mb patterns. 
 

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112EEA87-4053-4CEF-B1AC-4F32349D3EA3.png.7cf58ff0f9b0db6371fca15cb354be9c.png

 

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  On 12/21/2020 at 8:22 PM, snowman19 said:

To say that ENSO is totally meaningless and that there’s no such thing as El Niño or La Niña patterns is completely and totally absurd. That’s ludicrous 

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Is it though? There's something to be said about how decoupled the atmospheric pattern seems to be from the ENSO state. 

And then there's that whole Hadley Cell argument which is addressed well on the SNE forum. 

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  On 12/21/2020 at 9:54 PM, SnoSki14 said:

Is it though? There's something to be said about how decoupled the atmospheric pattern seems to be from the ENSO state. 

And then there's that whole Hadley Cell argument which is addressed well on the SNE forum. 

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The argument that ENSO is completely meaningless and that there is no such thing as La Niña or El Niño patterns is asinine, nonsensical. It’s not even worthy of a debate 

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