December 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[Heisy]

18 minutes ago, T5403CG said:

FWIW... Binghamton at 30"+... Expecting 36"+... perhaps 40" in some spots...

Sent from my moto g power using Tapatalk
 

I’m pissed that’s where I didn’t setup shop for my chase. Anyway, pattern looks solid going forward wouldn’t be shocked to see another real threat pop up soon.

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

I’m pissed that’s where I didn’t setup shop for my chase. Anyway, pattern looks solid going forward wouldn’t be shocked to see another real threat pop up soon.

Where did you chase ?

[tim]

21 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

New Euro looks amazing has 12 inches for extreme eastern LI

that DID NOT happen..alot of rain after about 3 " of snow.

[Heisy]

15 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Where did you chase ?

Lewisburg pa 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

Snow will end early this morning as a strengthening storm moves away from the region. It will turn partly cloudy in much of the region during the afternoon, but remain windy. Temperatures will likely top out in the lower and middle 30s across most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 30°

Newark: 32°

Philadelphia: 34°

In the wake of the snowstorm, temperatures will run below normal for the remainder of the week.

[EastonSN+]

6 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Morning thoughts...

Snow will end early this morning as a strengthening storm moves away from the region. It will turn partly cloudy in much of the region during the afternoon, but remain windy. Temperatures will likely top out in the lower and middle 30s across most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 30°

Newark: 32°

Philadelphia: 34°

In the wake of the snowstorm, temperatures will run below normal for the remainder of the week.

Thanks Don. I am curious to see the central Park total when they update. 

Hopefully we get a couple more opportunities while the AO is negative!

[wdrag]

Unsure whether we return to La Nina base state before January at the earliest. Too much -NAO and hints at occasionally Positive PNA and from what I can see in the NAEFS, winter storm possibilities 21st-30th, special emphasis on the 24th-30th.  Too much general blocking potential and jet modeled almost constantly south of our forum with a trough in the east.  Doubt very much whether we can get something close to what just occurred the 16th-17th but I don't think we're done with snow this  DEC in NYC. 

Since it looks like the sample size for LaNina behaviors has been expanded in Dec,  what might we think about for JFM?

Thanks,

Walt

 

 

[MJO812]

16 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Lewisburg pa 

Should have went to the albany area 

[donsutherland1]

13 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks Don. I am curious to see the central Park total when they update. 

Hopefully we get a couple more opportunities while the AO is negative!

I agree. As long as the AO stays negative, there could be some more chances.

As for Central Park, I suspect the final figure will be close to 10”. We’ll probably know soon.

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 29degs.(21/36).         Making it 24degs., or -11.

Month to date is Missing.      Total Snow as of midnight in Central Park was 6.5".

26*(95%RH) here at 6am.      This is down from 33* at 1am.       25* at 7am.      30* by Noon.      32* by 1pm.     33* at 2pm.

The only warm weather in the next 15 days is again near Chirstmas, with 2" of rain, which Santa will turn to snow.........  Ho Ho Ho!         Recent runs.....54,50,38,59 and now again 59degs.     But would you settle for a white NYE?

EURO's interpretation for the NAO/PNA have them crossing the Nuetral Zone during the last week of the month.      Good sign for mischief to happen.

 

[bluewave]

19 hours ago, Eduardo said:

At first glance, I thought you had mistakenly copied and pasted the October 2020 map for the "snowier outcome" composite (which is a good thing!).

Your accounting for Niño-like and Niña-like background states is sensible, but it leads me to wonder how much the usefulness of ENSO itself as a predictor might be breaking down (or at least shifting).

Solid post, as always!

The last few months have been an extreme example of mixed influences. But at least we can say some element of La Niña has shown up. The La Niña front-loaded early winter snowfall period has worked out. Numerous La Ninas in NYC had a 6”+ storm and or monthly snowfall total for December.

[EastonSN+]

GEFS and GEPS look solid throughout. Only have EPS to day 10 looks good. 

In other board they said EPs looses ao and NAO end of month. Hopefully a reload or switch to -epo to offset?

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Morning thoughts...

Snow will end early this morning as a strengthening storm moves away from the region. It will turn partly cloudy in much of the region during the afternoon, but remain windy. Temperatures will likely top out in the lower and middle 30s across most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 30°

Newark: 32°

Philadelphia: 34°

In the wake of the snowstorm, temperatures will run below normal for the remainder of the week.

The end of the storm was more exciting than the beginning....it changed back to all snow here at 3:30 AM (even while the north shore of Suffolk County was still raining I might add), and it snowed hard here for 3 hours with high winds and almost white out conditions as the temperatures crashed into the upper 20s by 4 AM.  The wind blew so hard that I saw transformers popping like lightning and my power flickered!  I heard the airports all had snowfall records for the date (I assume that was for yesterday).  What were the totals as of now, Don?

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The last few months have been an extreme example of mixed influences. But at least we can say some element of La Niña has shown up. The La Niña front-loaded early winter snowfall period has worked out. Numerous La Ninas in NYC had a 6”+ storm and or monthly snowfall total for December.

Count me in as an ENSO skeptic, I've lived long enough to have experienced great la ninas and horrible el ninos.....I just dont think the science is there to use ENSO alone as an indicator.....other factors are more important like the NAO and AO.  But we use ENSO out of sheer laziness, because it is the easiest to predict.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The last few months have been an extreme example of mixed influences. But at least we can say some element of La Niña has shown up. The La Niña front-loaded early winter snowfall period has worked out. Numerous La Ninas in NYC had a 6”+ storm and or monthly snowfall total for December.

but we've also had extremely backloaded la nina winters like we had in 55-56 and a few years ago.  I just think we shouldn't depend too much on ENSO.  AO and NAO are far better predictors for us.

 

 

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

6.5 inches in Central park as of midnight.

Will see how much falls on the 17th but this leaves the city now 4.8 inches short of getting Decembers 30 year average to 5.2 which will then bring the 30 year average to 30 inches.

The average for December now stands at 5.0 inches, 4.99 to be exact, which if no more snow fell this month would put the 30 year average at 29.8

This will make it an interesting last 2 weeks.

that still rounds to 30, I find it acceptable at this point, especially with how horrible last season was.  

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, wdrag said:

Unsure whether we return to La Nina base state before January at the earliest. Too much -NAO and hints at occasionally Positive PNA and from what I can see in the NAEFS, winter storm possibilities 21st-30th, special emphasis on the 24th-30th.  Too much general blocking potential and jet modeled almost constantly south of our forum with a trough in the east.  Doubt very much whether we can get something close to what just occurred the 16th-17th but I don't think we're done with snow this  DEC in NYC. 

Since it looks like the sample size for LaNina behaviors has been expanded in Dec,  what might we think about for JFM?

Thanks,

Walt

 

 

yes see this proves my point that ENSO is not as useful of a predictor as AO/NAO are.  The La Nina is still there of course, but it is not influencing our weather as much as AO/NAO are.

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Should have went to the albany area 

Binghamton would have been closer to him and had the historic snowfall.  How many 40"+ synoptic snowstorms have occurred in the northeast?

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

I agree. As long as the AO stays negative, there could be some more chances.

As for Central Park, I suspect the final figure will be close to 10”. We’ll probably know soon.

10" is the break even point as far as predicting a better than average snowfall winter.

 

[bluewave]

31 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Count me in as an ENSO skeptic, I've lived long enough to have experienced great la ninas and horrible el ninos.....I just dont think the science is there to use ENSO alone as an indicator.....other factors are more important like the NAO and AO.  But we use ENSO out of sheer laziness, because it is the easiest to predict.

 

That’s been my whole point since October.  There have been too many competing influences since at least October to use ENSO as a sole indicator. Think of it more like a collection of overlapping influences adding their various inputs to what becomes the actual pattern.

27 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

but we've also had extremely backloaded la nina winters like we had in 55-56 and a few years ago.  I just think we shouldn't depend too much on ENSO.  AO and NAO are far better predictors for us.

 

 

Front-loaded doesn’t mean that there can’t or won’t be other periods of active winter weather. On the whole though, La Ninas have been known for early wintery periods. The best winter DJF  snowstorm of the 95-96 La Niña was on January 6th and the  00-01 La Niña December 30. The greatest winter snowstorm of the 17-18 La Niña was January 4th. But that doesn’t preclude a March 2018 or even 2001. The super El Niño in 15-16 had the historic event later in January. The 82-83 super El Niño had the best snowstorm of the season in February. Same for the snowiest month during the 09-10 El Niño in February which had a strong backloaded period late winter. So while there has  been many overlapping influences, at least we got some element resembling a La  Niña this month. 

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That’s been my whole point since October.  There have been too many competing influences since at least October to use ENSO as a sole indicator. Think of it more like a collection of overlapping influences adding their various inputs to what becomes the actual pattern.

Front-loaded doesn’t mean that there can’t or won’t be other periods of active winter weather. On the whole though, La Ninas have been known for early wintery periods. The best winter DJF  snowstorm of the 95-96 La Niña was on January 6th and the  00-01 La Niña December 30. The best winter snowstorm of the 17-18 La Niña was January 4th. But that doesn’t preclude a March 2018 or even 2001. The super El Niño in 15-16 had the historic event later in January. The 82-83 super El Niño had the best snowstorm of the season in February. Same for the snowiest month during the 09-10 El Niño in February which had a good backloaded period late winter. So while that’s have been many overlapping influences, at least we got some element resembling a La anima this month. 

Yes, and I think we've shown that la ninas that come after el ninos can be especially snowy (maybe that was a factor here too, although last winter certainly didn't behave like an el nino).  What I find curious is that the predictions for the snowy March in the 17-18 winter were quite good and some even compared it to 55-56 before that winter even began.  What was going on in 17-18 that made people feel so good about a snowy March (and early April!) that year, Chris?

The interesting thing about 15-16 vs 82-83 is first of all how historic the warmth in Dec 15 was and secondly how our peak historic snowstorms have migrated from Feb to Jan!  From what I recall, before the last couple of decades there weren't nearly as many 20" Jan snowstorms as we've had since.....most of them happened in Feb.    Jan before the 90s was characteristically a cold and dry month and if it wasn't dry it was on account of a few small snowfalls rather than one huge one.  2008-09 was the only winter in recent memory that I can recall following the old pattern that used to be so dominant.  Probably not coincidentally, it was also an endangered species in another manner....a nearly average snowfall season!

 

 

 

[bluewave]

37 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes, and I think we've shown that la ninas that come after el ninos can be especially snowy (maybe that was a factor here too, although last winter certainly didn't behave like an el nino).  What I find curious is that the predictions for the snowy March in the 17-18 winter were quite good and some even compared it to 55-56 before that winter even began.  What was going on in 17-18 that made people feel so good about a snowy March (and early April!) that year, Chris?

The interesting thing about 15-16 vs 82-83 is first of all how historic the warmth in Dec 15 was and secondly how our peak historic snowstorms have migrated from Feb to Jan!  From what I recall, before the last couple of decades there weren't nearly as many 20" Jan snowstorms as we've had since.....most of them happened in Feb.    Jan before the 90s was characteristically a cold and dry month and if it wasn't dry it was on account of a few small snowfalls rather than one huge one.

 

Once the models saw the SSW in February, they began to move toward the cold and snowy March. 

[dWave]

7 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

6.5 inches in Central park as of midnight.

Will see how much falls on the 17th but this leaves the city now 4.8 inches short of getting Decembers 30 year average to 5.2 which will then bring the 30 year average to 30 inches.

The average for December now stands at 5.0 inches, 4.99 to be exact, which if no more snow fell this month would put the 30 year average at 29.8

This will make it an interesting last 2 weeks.

I saw news reports a little while ago saying 10" at Central Park. I haven't seen any offical NWS update after 1am with 6.5".  10" sounds reasonable. The wind makes it hard to measure but it looks about a foot give or take an inch here. 

[Heisy]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Should have went to the albany area 

Trust me I feel like jumping off a cliff right now. To miss this when I had perfect opportunity to go anywhere reasonable distance from Philly. Sucks. 

[SACRUS]

Just about 7 - 7.5 here and some light snow falling

Still could envision a 12/24 in the 50s with front coming through late evening and overnight with rain followed by crashing temps on Christmas early morning and some snow squals or showers and then Christmas very cold.  Seems a bit back and forth beyond Christmas to end the year much warmer again  by 12/28.

[dWave]

1 minute ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

It does appear that Central Park did officially record 10 inches of snow from this storm. A couple of things of note about that.

This becomes the 66th storm since 1870 of 10 inches or more in NYC and the 13th in December. The breakdown by months as seen below.

I hope they measure again before it compacts, periods of moderate snow continue through the morning. Right now it looks the best is just north and just south of midtown but they were under it earlier.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

It does appear that Central Park did officially record 10 inches of snow from this storm. A couple of things of note about that.

This becomes the 66th storm since 1870 of 10 inches or more in NYC and the 13th in December. The breakdown by months as seen below.

This now brings the December 30 year average (1991-2020) to 5.1 inches. December now needs 1.3 inches of snow to get the December average to 5.2 which will bring the 30 year average to 30.0. I hope it's in the cards.

[the_other_guy]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

10" is the break even point as far as predicting a better than average snowfall winter.

 

Yes. As we get inundated with technology and models, time and time again historical trends prove very relevant.

We have 10 inches. That is good for the winter ahead

[bluewave]

This looks like the 5th earliest 10” snowstorm for NYC.

#1  Nov 26-27, 1898....10.0”.

#2 Dec 5-7.......2003....14.0”

#3 Dec11-12...1960.....15.2”

#4 Dec 15th.....1916.....12.7”

#5 Dec 16-17....2020.....10.0”

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

The end of the storm was more exciting than the beginning....it changed back to all snow here at 3:30 AM (even while the north shore of Suffolk County was still raining I might add), and it snowed hard here for 3 hours with high winds and almost white out conditions as the temperatures crashed into the upper 20s by 4 AM.  The wind blew so hard that I saw transformers popping like lightning and my power flickered!  I heard the airports all had snowfall records for the date (I assume that was for yesterday).  What were the totals as of now, Don?

 

The latest PNS doesn’t contain the near final numbers.