Shades Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 What implies an accident in meteorology? I don't recall coming across this phenomena in the field. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 Let's get some snow in here, lets go. Im ready for a 6-12 powder event. Dont need a HECS, just something...anything 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 I've got flakes happening right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 27 minutes ago, Shades said: What implies an accident in meteorology? I don't recall coming across this phenomena in the field. I believe in superdeterminism. There are no accidents! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, gravitylover said: I've got flakes happening right now. Got an inch on the ground here with a red fox playing in the snow. Nice prolonged light to occasionally moderate snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 15 hours ago, bluewave said: First 60° temperature on record today in Caribou during meteorological winter. It was colder in Florida than it was in Maine yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 12 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: I hope I am wrong, too. December will probably provide good insight into how things may evolve. If blocking breaks down after mid-December that could be an indication that winter will wind up warmer and less snowy than normal. But Don aren't thaws normal? If we have a cold first half of December that could return in January after a thaw in between. Maybe we'll have a back and forth pattern with chances of snow when switching between patterns? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 2, 2020 Author Share Posted December 2, 2020 8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: It was colder in Florida than it was in Maine yesterday. The persistent ridge east of New England continues to beat expectations. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: But Don aren't thaws normal? If we have a cold first half of December that could return in January after a thaw in between. Maybe we'll have a back and forth pattern with chances of snow when switching between patterns? I’m not referring to a thaw, but the evolution toward what is expected to be the predominant winter pattern and also La Niña progression. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 7 minutes ago, bluewave said: The persistent ridge east of New England continues to beat expectations. There were also numerous records in eastern Canada. For additional perspective, Caribou’s previous latest 50 degree minimum occurred in November 21, 1954 (51 degrees) and its next such minimum occurred on April 26, 1986 (50 degrees). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 First flakes of the season earlier on the UWS. It’s a start. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said: I’m not referring to a thaw, but the evolution toward what is expected to be the predominant winter pattern and also La Niña progression. Historically do patterns that evolve in the latter part of December lock in for the majority of winter or are early December patterns more likely to repeat again during the winter, Don? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: The persistent ridge east of New England continues to beat expectations. It reminds me of summer lol. How much do the high temps in the Atlantic have to do with this, Chris? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Historically do patterns that evolve in the latter part of December lock in for the majority of winter or are early December patterns more likely to repeat again during the winter, Don? Not always. But if one sees a shift consistent with La Niña, one can have greater confidence in the overall idea that relies on ENSO, etc. There will likely be variability during the course of the winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 Moderate...flurries 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 Just now, donsutherland1 said: Not always. But if one sees a shift consistent with La Niña, one can have greater confidence in the overall idea that relies on ENSO, etc. There will likely be variability during the course of the winter. Yes...the winter that comes to mind for me is 2005-06 where we had a cold early December (and snow from the city on west) and then a mild latter December and January with a minor snowfall in January and one big snowstorm in February surrounded by warmth and then a cold and dry March and a renegade early April snowfall to get us to 40" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 1 hour ago, bluewave said: The persistent ridge east of New England continues to beat expectations. the most shocking thing to me here was that Caribou never broke the record of 59F they set in February 1994 for the warmest meteorological winter day. I figured for sure that record had gotten broken in the last 25 years 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 Not gonna be by accident you say? Look at the morning of Dec. 15. GFS just went from 7degrees BN to a whopping 27 degrees AN in a single run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, CIK62 said: Not gonna be by accident you say? Look at the morning of Dec. 15. GFS just went from 7degrees BN to a whopping 27 degrees AN in a single run. Thats why OP models are a waste of time beyond day 5 or 6 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Thats why OP models are a waste of time beyond day 5 or 6 Huge difference between CMC and GFS going forward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 I've had off and on flurries all morning but over in the Catskills it's more significant https://www.plattekill.com/webcams/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said: the most shocking thing to me here was that Caribou never broke the record of 59F they set in February 1994 for the warmest meteorological winter day. I figured for sure that record had gotten broken in the last 25 years what about that day in February when we hit 80? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 Just now, gravitylover said: I've had off and on flurries all morning but over in the Catskills it's more significant https://www.plattekill.com/webcams/ well it's ended here now but looks like a winter postcard scene outside 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 2, 2020 Author Share Posted December 2, 2020 1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said: the most shocking thing to me here was that Caribou never broke the record of 59F they set in February 1994 for the warmest meteorological winter day. I figured for sure that record had gotten broken in the last 25 years The minimum temperature record was more impressive than the maximum. The max beat the DJF record by 1°. But the min beat the previous record by 5°. Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx) - Month of Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 50 30 2 1964 45 0 3 2003 43 0 - 1939 43 6 5 2011 40 0 - 1951 40 0 Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx) - Month of Jan Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 1950 41 0 2 1986 40 0 3 1979 38 0 - 1956 38 0 4 2008 37 0 - 2007 37 0 5 2017 36 0 Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx) - Month of Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 1994 42 0 2 1970 41 0 3 1981 39 0 4 1988 38 0 5 1996 37 0 Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx) - Month of Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 60 30 2 1950 58 0 3 2010 57 0 4 2001 56 0 - 1969 56 0 5 2000 54 0 - 1982 54 0 - 1973 54 0 - 1966 54 0 Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx) - Month of Jan Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2013 53 0 - 1995 53 0 2 1986 52 0 3 2018 51 0 - 2005 51 0 - 1996 51 0 - 1983 51 0 - 1950 51 0 4 2006 50 0 5 2008 48 0 - 1999 48 0 - 1945 48 0 Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx) - Month of Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 1994 59 0 2 1990 52 0 - 1981 52 0 3 2018 51 0 4 2017 50 0 - 2016 50 0 5 2000 49 0 - 1988 49 0 - 1976 49 0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STORMANLI Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 Light Ice pellet and rain shower now 40° South Commack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 Interesting battle going on in the 6-10 day. GEFS want to torch us and eps/geps reinforce the artic air 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 5 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Interesting battle going on in the 6-10 day. GEFS want to torch us and eps/geps reinforce the artic air Euro, eps, cmc, gets vs gfs and gefs lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 5 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Interesting battle going on in the 6-10 day. GEFS want to torch us and eps/geps reinforce the artic air Pretty crazy differences. Something is going to be off big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 10 minutes ago, FPizz said: Pretty crazy differences. Something is going to be off big time. Go with warmth, you'll rarely be wrong these days.... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Go with warmth, you'll rarely be wrong these days.... Will probably end up somewhere in between 40s/50s and boring. Though 50s is pretty torchy in mid December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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