wdrag Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 13 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: You are discounting the 0Z EURO solution for this weekend ? It's a member but I think its far too slo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 10 minutes ago, JoshSnow said: That’s a blizzard buddy it would have a better chance if it was later in the season BUT I agree with Anthony too close to the coast and the flow will be off the too warm ocean - need to move it east to have a chance and that if cold enough air is in place prior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Important tweet for the second half of December. The mjo wave in the Niña phases can’t gain strength because of the standing wave in IO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 18 minutes ago, JoshSnow said: That’s a blizzard buddy There is no cold air in place ahead of it and when the system turns up the coast down by Georgia there’s a low in Quebec, not a high. You wouldn’t get snow with that system unless it was vertically stacked as it passed northeast of the area. In that case there would be an area of snow behind it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oliviajames Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Important tweet for the second half of December. The mjo wave in the Niña phases can’t gain strength because of the standing wave in IO Isn't that what happened last year when MJO looked to go into the colder octants? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 35 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: You are discounting the 0Z EURO solution for this weekend ? 31 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Beautiful weekend on the euro, nasty weekend on GFS really amazing to see 6z euro now has a low in NC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Brian weenie tags me for posting the truth. Troll. Anyway 12z Icon with a nice track but temps are too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 3 hours ago, bluewave said: The OP GFS longer range has had less of a cold bias than the ensembles over SE Canada. Sometimes, the lower resolution ensembles smooth out the ridge near the near the Northeast too much. Where the OP runs don’t. The last 1-2 days the Op GFS has pretty consistently wanted to torch the east and have a SER. Very bizarre because most runs it’s ensembles have disagreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 3 hours ago, JoshSnow said: If that depiction occurred it’d be a blizzard across the board! With no cold air? You know it has to be cold to snow right? 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Nice snowstorm d12 on the gfs op. Fantasy range and will probably change but shows the potential with the pattern 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 It’s finally here! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 It’s a shame we can’t get the first shortwave to trend weaker because the energy diving in early next week is potent. It just gets buried now in the base of the trough. Sunday has potential in the far interior to produce snow 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: It’s a shame we can’t get the first shortwave to trend weaker because the energy diving in early next week is potent. It just gets buried now in the base of the trough. Sunday has potential in the far interior to produce snow Sunday probably a cold rain for the big cities. We’ll keep watching after that to see if we can finally get the pattern to cooperate. Feels good to at least be tracking chances again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 3 hours ago, nycsnow said: Potential for another wind event this weekend gotta see how it trends next few days Yes, though I'm not quite sure if this intensifying trough will close fast enough (PA) before reaching our longitude (LI). BUT.... the backside wnw wind cold air advection(CAA) might provide at least 40-45 kt (wind advisory) gusts... possibly higher, depending on cloud cover and lapse rate... It's usually bit easier with 50-55kt 850MB winds to transfer in CAA during the day, whereas to have yesterdays southerly WAA wind, you tend to need 70+ knots at 850MB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 1, 2020 Author Share Posted December 1, 2020 The 12z Euro finally ejects enough energy from the SW for a more phased coastal rain and wind event on the 5th. 12z today 12z yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 The strong PNA ridge could ultimately help turn the hugger into a coastal but there's little cold air to work with in general. Pattern change is a work in progress but there will be opportunities moving forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 2 minutes ago, JoshSnow said: It’s crazy how warm it’s been this year. I can’t stand it the coming days in the 40's will feel frigid.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Wow. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Watch this costal take a perfect snow track and be rain for the coast. The airmass just blows 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 47 minutes ago, wdrag said: Yes, though I'm not quite sure if this intensifying trough will close fast enough (PA) before reaching our longitude (LI). BUT.... the backside wnw wind cold air advection(CAA) might provide at least 40-45 kt (wind advisory) gusts... possibly higher, depending on cloud cover and lapse rate... It's usually bit easier with 50-55kt 850MB winds to transfer in CAA during the day, whereas to have yesterdays southerly WAA wind, you tend to need 70+ knots at 850MB. While overdone whatever euro did had some sick winds central jersey east 70+ gust lol take 20 off that still solid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Hi! I want to think things through before probably posting a topic at 5PM, including check of 12z/1 ENS (GEFS/EPS/NAEFS) upper air patterns and the 850 wind flow. Modeling is favoring another storm of power outage potential (wind, perhaps 4+" wet snow extreme nw fringe of our forum with backside wind gusts 40+ MPH) and travel issues for late Friday into Sunday. Unsure how it evolves... NYC probably all rain til flurries at the end...I84 more complex. EC wind gusts 50+ now both front and back side for portions of our forum so power outages may not be much worse than yesterday but still a consideration. If the storm runs slower and max easterly inflow is midday Saturday, then a tidal flooding problem would develop. Thanks for your patience.. Walt 156P. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Question: Which model can change rain and T's in 50's, into 10" of snow and T's in the 20's----within 1 run. (For the 13th./14th. which has switched again) Why it is the "GFS---I Just Dropped in to See What Condition My Forecast Was In", model. Bring it on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Eps 990 south of LI. Idv have some big hits for northeast PA up into UNY 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 11 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Eps 990 south of LI. Idv have some big hits for northeast PA up into UNY Nice rain and wind storm maybe even costal flooding for coast no? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 What a look! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 52 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Watch this costal take a perfect snow track and be rain for the coast. The airmass just blows This airmass sucks. Happened to us with today's storm. Storm tracked just west of the Apps, which in any normal year would be a 12"+ storm, but instead we got rain. Got 3" of back end snow this morning as the LP rotated. Maybe another 1-2” later tonight. Hope there is stronger dynamic cooling with this one for you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 1, 2020 Author Share Posted December 1, 2020 These differences in handling the short term storm details really magnifies the ensemble spread by day 10. That’s why I want to see how each individual storm verifies before looking past day 8-10. The EPS, GEFS, and GEPS all have varying solutions day 8-10. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 In my experience most storms that track west of the Apps do not portend snow in the immediate tri-state region. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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