bluewave Posted November 28, 2020 Author Share Posted November 28, 2020 19 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Really?? Ugh...so a pattern we've already been stuck in of warmer than average shifts to a new pattern of warmer than average again? Let it end. The cutter and hugger storm tracks can really produce for the areas around the Great Lakes. But all the warmth gets tired during the summer when people go north to cool off. Last several summers you had to go up into Canada to escape the heat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 1 minute ago, bluewave said: The cutter and hugger storm tracks can really produce for the areas around the Great Lakes. But all the warmth gets tired during the summer when people go north to cool off. Last several summers you had to go up into Canada to escape the heat. Yeah, warm...warm...warm...yawn. Much of the Great Lakes region hasn't done very well the last several winters either. If snowstorms do happen, they melt a couple days later. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 3 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Yeah, warm...warm...warm...yawn. Much of the Great Lakes region hasn't done very well the last several winters either. If snowstorms do happen, they melt a couple days later. Yeah. Winter has been out west the last two years. A Niña like pattern will do that. Their has not been much winter outside of Maine in the east. -pna/dateline ridge/ strong vortex is a recipe for cutters 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 28, 2020 Author Share Posted November 28, 2020 22 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Yeah, warm...warm...warm...yawn. Much of the Great Lakes region hasn't done very well the last several winters either. If snowstorms do happen, they melt a couple days later. I don’t really mind if the snow melts a few days later. Our snowy 15-16, 16-17, and 17-18 winters featured big warm ups following most snowstorms. Kind of like spring in the Rockies. But it isn’t the greatest if you run a ski resort and have to put up with the sloppy conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 59 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Eps continues to look great after the 5th. We even get some poleward ridging with a hint of a -nao. So about that Niña December? Lol Gefs is similiar along with op runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 15 minutes ago, bluewave said: I don’t really mind if the snow melts a few days later. Our snowy 15-16, 16-17, and 17-18 winters featured big warm ups following most snowstorms. Kind of like spring in the Rockies. But it isn’t the greatest if you run a ski resort and have to put up with the sloppy conditions. most big snows melt or get washed away within a week to ten days...the storms and snow cover that last for weeks uaually have reinforcements down the line...the Kennedy inaugural storm was followed by over two straight weeks of sub freezing highs and another 22" before a thaw set in...... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said: Really?? Ugh...so a pattern we've already been stuck in of warmer than average shifts to a new pattern of warmer than average again? Let it end. I hope it ends soon. Another “non-winter” would be anything but satisfying. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 28, 2020 Author Share Posted November 28, 2020 6 minutes ago, uncle W said: most big snows melt or get washed away within a week to ten days...the storms and snow cover that last for weeks uaually have reinforcements down the line...the Kennedy inaugural storm was followed by over two straight weeks of sub freezing highs and another 22" before a thaw set in...... 2016 to 2018 featured great snowstorms that melted a few days later in many cases. 2014 to 2015 had long lasting snow cover but the storms weren’t as impressive in my area as 2016 to 2018. 2010-2011 was the rarest of them all with great snowstorms and long lasting snow cover. I can still remember the snow mountains from the road crews piled high near the LB Boardwalk into the spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 i was in florida during the march 21 2018 storm and on the plane back it looked like it barely snowed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 GEFS is really making the alleged BN period for the first half of December look like a head fake. There are no 5-Day periods showing as BN. Closest is the period centered on the 10th. Traces of snow that showed successively for the 2nd, 5th, 7th. and 10th. have melted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 3 hours ago, bluewave said: I don’t really mind if the snow melts a few days later. Our snowy 15-16, 16-17, and 17-18 winters featured big warm ups following most snowstorms. Kind of like spring in the Rockies. But it isn’t the greatest if you run a ski resort and have to put up with the sloppy conditions. Melting snow after a snowfall is pretty normal in your region. I was hoping living in a lake effect area would help keep it whiter (which it does), but we actually need some solid cold air to get decent snow from the lakes here...unlike the 'cold" that is mild Pacific/maritime air. I am a bigger fan of a consistent wintry look...which has become pretty rare over much of the U.S. these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 The GEFS Extended which not many days ago showed Winter arriving with T's in the 60's, now greets the cold solstice with a major snowstorm and has a total of 20" for the month. Plenty of time for it to reach 40" and drop back to 0" many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 55 minutes ago, CIK62 said: The GEFS Extended which not many days ago showed Winter arriving with T's in the 60's, now greets the cold solstice with a major snowstorm and has a total of 20" for the month. Plenty of time for it to reach 40" and drop back to 0" many times. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 Weenie land Gfs shows some snow for mid December. This is the timeline that many people have said. Cold pattern sets up after the 2nd low cuts inland. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 9 hours ago, MJO812 said: Weenie land Gfs shows some snow for mid December. This is the timeline that many people have said. Cold pattern sets up after the 2nd low cuts inland. The 0Z Euro says the 2nd low stays stays south of us and off the coast and the 06Z GFS has shifted south and east also 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: The 0Z Euro says the 2nd low stays stays south of us and off the coast would be rain anyway-no cold high-we usually don't do well with Low pressure north of the lakes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: would be rain anyway-no cold high-we usually don't do well with Low pressure north of the lakes Euro stays so far south and east its basically no precip 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 29, 2020 Author Share Posted November 29, 2020 The first week of December will start out milder in the Northeast than some of the guidance was indicating a week ago. New run Old run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigtenfan Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 1 hour ago, NEG NAO said: The 0Z Euro says the 2nd low stays stays south of us and off the coast and the 06Z GFS has shifted south and east also Nothing like having a 995 low in a very good spot and having the 540 line north of Quebec City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 58 minutes ago, bluewave said: The first week of December will start out milder in the Northeast than some of the guidance was indicating a week ago. New run Old run That’s because the models were figuring out where the low pressures were. It was only cold underneath the cutoffs 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 29, 2020 Author Share Posted November 29, 2020 14 minutes ago, Allsnow said: That’s because the models were figuring out where the low pressures were. It was only cold underneath the cutoffs It has been an ongoing issue for the GEFS. I can’t wait until machine learning brings us bias corrected model guidance maps. Maybe someday we can look at day 11-15 bias corrected maps which will take long range forecasting to the next level. But that will probably require quite a bit more computer power. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 2 hours ago, NEG NAO said: Euro stays so far south and east its basically no precip 2nd low on the models are now weak and offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 Adding one 00z/29 GEFS RMOP graphic on next weekend... door not closed. Confidence on trough axis but not the trough strength .. note confluent flow to our north. While it may be rain here, I'm looking for a decent storm to eventually re-evolve northward. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 1 hour ago, wdrag said: Adding one 00z/29 GEFS RMOP graphic on next weekend... door not closed. Confidence on trough axis but not the trough strength .. note confluent flow to our north. While it may be rain here, I'm looking for a decent storm to eventually re-evolve northward. Good call Walt - 12Z Euro brought back next weekends storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 Found our snow: Of course it's on the other side of the planet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 18 minutes ago, cut said: Found our snow: Of course it's on the other side of the planet Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 We'll monitor with some interest the 5th-7th... especially hilly nw suburbs... as all have said, doesn't look good for this one in the city. One event at a time... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 First time ever I am living exclusively in Liberty NY until April. I can still monitor my PWS in Lynbrook NY though as hopefully not too many rain/snow lines make it this far north Hoping by week 2 of December things get moving here 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 The first 10 days of December are averaging 43degs.(38/47). Making it 37degs., or -3.0. There is no Snow showing for the period or through the first half of the month for that matter, since Dec.14 now keeps showing up as Rain in the 50's-----instead of the earlier snow in the 30's. The period of Dec. 20---Jan. 20 looks like a loser's game if you like snow and cold. Only an atmospheric accident will help us here----read that as 'miracle'. CAR SSWE....... WHERE ARE YOU? The Meteorological Winter at a glance: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 0Z Euro can't decide what to do with next weekends coastal storm now very far south of us - yesterdays 12Z had it inland close to the area and run before that was also too far south and east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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