jaydreb Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Looks like ICON leading the way with this one. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: 18z OP GFS cuts the coastal low into Point Lookout...that's really far west. Wonder what the ensembles will say. If they're all west we probably have a problem. But my question is why did it cut...timing? Late transfer? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 There has been a trend to slow the troff down like most big systems ever since I can remember. Hopefully this is a hiccup. 3 more runs on this trend and the jackpot is Albany to Burlington. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 5 minutes ago, Ji said: well its the 18z--im sure it ingested some bad data The energy is over the Pacific and won't be sampled properly until Monday 12z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Anyone smart wanna say how the low can jump from OBX at hr99 and then go NW to the mouth of the Potomac at hr102? Could just be me living in denial but it seems like a weird track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Yeah, if Ensembles match this run, I’m-l getting worried. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 13 minutes ago, Ji said: lol brutal cutoff from HECS-MECS-to travelors advisory I lost 13 inches that run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Looks like ICON leading the way with this one. GFS PARA and ICON have been pretty similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, 40westwx said: I lost 13 inches that run Me too. I am at -8. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 LOL back to NH I go. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Everyone chill. Bernie Rayno once told me... ETA: Seriously. I’d put money on it coming back around. Weenie windshield wiper effect now in full effect. If it looks like this Monday, we can all cliff dive together (except those NW rejoicing in their snow bomb) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Gfs is funny. Through 90hrs, I would have definitely said it would be a better outcome for us than 12z even. CAD is stronger, weaker OH valley primary, confluence a tick more, and shortwave deeper. I think the reason it comes so far inland is maybe the shortwave becomes negatively tilted a little sooner than we’d prefer? I don’t see much else. All within the range of possibility I guess. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, WxUSAF said: Gfs is funny. Through 90hrs, I would have definitely said it would be a better outcome for us than 12z even. CAD is stronger, weaker OH valley primary, confluence a tick more, and shortwave deeper. I think the reason it comes so far inland is maybe the shortwave becomes negatively tilted a little sooner than we’d prefer? I don’t see much else. All within the range of possibility I guess. Western ridge/+PNA was weaker. Bluewave in the NYC forum has been mentioning this as a possible way this can fail for us on south and near coastal areas. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 5 minutes ago, PhineasC said: LOL back to NH I go. You are gonna get fringed on this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 I will take that GFS run and be happy ... of course it's wrong, but hey 2020 so take any positive you can ... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 18z GFS ens 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, AmericanWxFreak said: 18z GFS ens Next. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 The GFS and Euro moved toward the ICON’s solution today. So 2020... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Western ridge/+PNA was weaker. Bluewave in the NYC forum has been mentioning this as a possible way this can fail for us on south and near coastal areas. Thanks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Well that gfs run looked like one of the inside eps members. Low gets to the mouth of the Potomac. That’s way inside where we want. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 What do the other frames look like on the ENS and we need individual members too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 minute ago, jaydreb said: Next. Ok see ya 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 minute ago, MD Snow said: The GFS and Euro moved toward the ICON’s solution today. So 2020... Are you gonna be ok? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 The GEFS follow the Op most of the time. I would not have expected a marked difference. They really go lock step unlike the EPS and Op Euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Western ridge/+PNA was weaker. Bluewave in the NYC forum has been mentioning this as a possible way this can fail for us on south and near coastal areas. Eh, don’t really see that. Either way, all pretty subtle changes that disappoints a lot of us in this particular case. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Ok see ya Sorry, just venting some disappointment. I’ll take it to panic room. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 18z GEFS is also less wet, which can't be helpful. Rates were big for success near I-95. Looking back at 12z even, temps near the Beltway got to 2C during the middle of the storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The GEFS follow the Op most of the time. I would not have expected a marked difference. They really go lock step unlike the EPS and Op Euro New GEFS has more reasonable divergence I believe. @high risk can confirm or deny. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Are you gonna be ok? No... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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