BristowWx Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 6 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I know we don’t care here but the snowfall in southern New England might be prodigious I kind of do..snowy NE means colder highs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 If somehow I get 15"+ from this, of course I will mix. There will be a phase at the peak of the storm when some sleet appears. Usually I am having too much fun to even notice. Snow-sleet-snow is pretty classic in these things for my area.The sleet just preserves the snowpack! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 CWG > lots of rain with some snow mixed in < CWG 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, PhineasC said: I am not really clear on your climo. Do you need a storm more like a southern slider or something that hits the beaches? Do the traditional I-95 and NW MECS not work that well for your spot? Because for MBY this thing looks classic. But that might be a screw job for you. It is highly variable. I miss out on as many southern sliders as I manage to catch the NW edge of. A synoptic set up like this often gets this area into the good stuff with the I-95 crew, but the air mass is not super cold, its mid December, and look at the warm ocean temps just offshore. There is going to be some strong easterly winds for a time with that low track. Dec 2009 was a 20" all snow event here, but it had a legit west-based block and a perfect track. Cold locked in. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: CWG > lots of rain with some snow mixed in < CWG Do they still cover all bases with boom/bust percentages? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dendrimer77 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 17 minutes ago, Snowchaser said: I'm not feeling good about cville snowfall with this one. Looks like a 3-6 snow event with ice ice ice. North west VA looks golden I agree! We need that cold air to stick around throughout the column. Fortunately we have about twenty more model cycles to analyze! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 The beast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 minute ago, PhineasC said: Do they still cover all bases with boom/bust percentages? Probably too early for those specifics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 CWG > lots of rain with some snow mixed in They are terrible . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 9 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Probably too early for those specifics. their forecast is just silly.. I know @usedtobe is the primary contributor but if I were them I would title the headline "Foot of snow possible for DC". They are way too conservative. Just let it rip.. have fun with it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 minute ago, Snowchaser said: The beast! My profile photo is a composite of the 500 mb heights for the 5 days leading up to this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Wizard Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Not sure if I’m allowed to post, but the EPS is clustered farther west than the operational. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, 40westwx said: their forecast is just silly.. I know @usedtobe is the primary contributor but if I were them I would title the headline "Foot of snow possible for DC". They are way too conservative. A foot in D.C. is highly unlikely imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 27 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Trailing energy keeps light snow going...great shoveling weather... Keeps light snow and flurries going through Thursday morning. Love that. We look to be in a prime spot for this one. Hopefully things hold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Yikes this ain't good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 11 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Euro looks quite nice to those of us who accept that this is very likely going to mix. I want that CCB. Wherever that CCB sets up is going to be intense...according to the euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, 40westwx said: their forecast is just silly.. I know @usedtobe is the primary contributor but if I were them I would title the headline "Foot of snow possible for DC". They are way too conservative. Just let it rip.. have fun with it! He isn’t the primary. It’s done mostly by Jason. Wes is a great help and always provides sound advice 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, 40westwx said: their forecast is just silly.. I know @usedtobe is the primary contributor but if I were them I would title the headline "Foot of snow possible for DC". They are way too conservative. Just let it rip.. have fun with it! It is not wise to unnecessarily hype a storm when things are far from certain. Not sure if you remember March 2013 or March 2001. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Ouch 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 19 minutes ago, 40westwx said: I couldnt agree more.. And if you live in Southern MD or even DC.. just book a staycation somewhere!! Hunt Valley is very close to Oregon Ridge.. stay Wed night and sled on Thursday! This is an easy chase I wouldn't necessarily count out Southern MD. They often get overlooked in these kinds of storms. I grew up in Charles County and often they get surprised with higher totals in Coastal lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Euro was persistently too far NW on the last coastal. It corrected a couple days out and then ended up pretty far to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Wizard Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Lots of west leaning members here, tread carefully. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Yea the 12z EPS isnt great for anyone east of I81. Hope this doesn't shift further west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 All the left leaning members skew the mean. I think I'd toss this run and wait for tomorrow and see if this continues. Noise 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, PhineasC said: Euro was persistently too far NW on the last coastal. It corrected a couple days out and then ended up pretty far to the east. Let’s hope you’re right. A lot of those EPS lows would be a lot of rain for the majority of the sub forum. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 The mean track is very similar to the op run. If you want to use snowfall clown maps as the reference, it was a slight tick down from 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, Winter Wizard said: Lots of west leaning members here, tread carefully. That is a sharp right turn between 108 and 114 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said: Let’s hope you’re right. A lot of those EPS lows would be a lot of rain for the majority of the sub forum. FWIW, the CMC was the best model on the last coastal in terms of track. It didn't waver for days while the Euro and GFS waffled around, the former too far NW and the latter too far SE. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 What does the EPS have for Monday? Remember the Op was flat as hell, next flattest compared to the GGEM. If the EPS agrees on Monday there may be some merit to a crappier solution Wednesday as has been said often the last 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Yeah. that EPS mean would be rain even out here. Hopefully its just a blip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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