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December Medium/Long Range Discussion


yoda
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As has been said, this is a better run than 0z for the beltway crew.  We do lose 850s but for a shorter amount of time than we did on the 0z run.  
 

It looks like it will be Snow-Rain-Snow.  It’s all about maximizing the front end thump and then on the back end as the storm passes us and pulls away.  A few ticks East and we’re in the snow the whole time.  

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2 minutes ago, Snowchaser said:

I'm not feeling good about cville snowfall with this one. Looks like a 3-6 snow event with ice ice ice.

North west VA looks golden :snowing: :snowman:

I agree I don’t have that warm fuzzy feeling anymore. I think 3” is a win down here then sleet and freezing rain to crust it on top. 

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9 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

Should have let the run happen

We are going to warm and rain with this setup. There is no way around it. Just a matter of duration, and the Euro gets us in on the heavy deformation snow this run. Went from next to nothing at 0z to probably several inches at 12z, and look at that surface temp gradient near us for a good chunk of the storm. Hopefully that ticks southeast some in future runs. 

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11 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Yeah I'm not super encouraged by those panels. :lol:

I am not really clear on your climo. Do you need a storm more like a southern slider or something that hits the beaches? Do the traditional I-95 and NW MECS not work that well for your spot? Because for MBY this thing looks classic. But that might be a screw job for you.

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17 minutes ago, mappy said:

I got a sneaky 5-6” in one event last winter, so I’ll take a warning level event. 

I couldnt agree more.. And if you live in Southern MD or even DC.. just book a staycation somewhere!! Hunt Valley is very close to Oregon Ridge.. stay Wed night and sled on Thursday!  This is an easy chase :)

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21 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Back end is nice.  Euro really isn’t as bad as it’s made out to be here. It’s actually better than 0z

For us along the east end of the beltway, the back end deformation can allow us to cash in when we otherwise wouldn't. Problem is, it's such a low percentage occurrence because of the typically post-low westerly component and downsloping. So we obviously need the timing of a well developed cyclone for us in the eastern burbs to cash in. 

The bulk of the 10" that fell from that system a couple years ago fell on day 2 with the deformation (6-8").

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15 minutes ago, DCAlexandria said:


Any euro clown maps?


.

No sorry, on mobile right now. Maybe someone else has it 

5 minutes ago, 40westwx said:

I couldnt agree more.. And if you live in Southern MD or even DC.. just book a staycation somewhere!! Hunt Valley is very close to Oregon Ridge.. stay Wed night and sled on Thursday!  This is an easy chase :)

Hahaha Oregon ridge does have a great hill to sled on! 

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