December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[JakkelWx]

There's stronger confluence to the north again on the 12z euro. North of montana.. stronger lobe

[H2O]

let the run happen, folks

[PivotPoint]

By the way, not that the Para has a handle but its decently warmer at 850 for 95 crew. Hoping the Euro ticks colder. Need that HP to sit a little snugger.

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

Just now, H2O said:

let the run happen, folks

pbp is necessary

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, H2O said:

let the run happen, folks

I blame the psu theory

[H2O]

Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

pbp is necessary

pbp is fine, predicting what comes next before it happens isn't

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

The high is 2mb weaker and slightly se of where it was yesterday's 12z run hr 78.

[AmericanWxFreak]

[clskinsfan]

At 72 cold air is dumping down the Apps out of the due north. 

Nice CAD at 96. 850 line down to NC/VA border.

[AmericanWxFreak]

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

I think a legit concern would be the high leaving too quickly.

[clskinsfan]

Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

I think a legit concern would be the high leaving too quickly.

Yep. And at 96 the 850 winds are coming in from the south because of it. We'll see what happens. 

[AmericanWxFreak]

Here she comes 

[Buddy1987]

1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

I think a legit concern would be the high leaving too quickly.

That would be a change of events considering most of the 12z guidance locks it in a good way for most here. Will be enhanced IMO as we move closer to game time.

[snowmagnet]

35 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

You think a snow storm "locks in" 4+ days out. LOL

Jan 2016 did. About a week out. The only question was, who would get 2 feet and who would get 3! 

[AmericanWxFreak]

Looks warmer then GFS/CMC

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, Buddy1987 said:

That would be a change of events considering most of the 12z guidance locks it in a good way for most here. Will be enhanced IMO as we move closer to game time.

Yeah and so far the high moving away too quickly hasn't been too much of an issue on the rest of the guidance...

[NorthArlington101]

12z is gonna be a little warmer than 00z for ground temps, but mostly looks like noise.

[Yeoman]

I think a legit concern would be the high leaving too quickly.

Good thing we have that -NAO setting up

[AmericanWxFreak]

[JakkelWx]

Warmer OP run. Waiting until the ens come out

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, AmericanWxFreak said:

rates flip it to snow/rain/sleet for the 1-95 corridor. Not shocking IMO. Looks slightly mixier than previous runs but based on a quick glance it looks more like noise than a trend the wrong way.

[stormtracker]

It’s actually not too bad. SV maps have dc n and w 18-20+.  Not gonna happen. But still. Not a complete disaster 

[AmericanWxFreak]

[NorthArlington101]

we get crushed in the deform.

12z:

00z:

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

114 is a crush job on the deform it looks like for most of us.

[Eskimo Joe]

Euro is not bad from I95 and points north and west. Even DC and Baltimore City proper aren't terrible. Just a tick colder and the big cities win.

[H2O]

Just now, stormtracker said:

It’s actually not too bad. 

Ehhhhh, the LP is tucked close to the Delmarva compared to yesterday's 12z  floods more warm air in when max precipitation falls.  

[AmericanWxFreak]

[Amped]

CCB FTW