December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[frd]

8 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

If you use the h5 vorticity maps and fast fwd frame by frame ( I use wxbell) the shear number of shortwaves interacting is nuts . Do it with the op Euro or Gfs . Point is ...its busy . I wouldn't be surprised if a clipper or a storm pops in the near medium range( day 4-5) or short range (inside 3 days ). Far from boring.  Really all one could ask for in  early December .

Lots of waves...... as HM posted,  on would occur as wave lengths changed. 

 

[jaydreb]

18 minutes ago, frd said:

Can you kindly post the Euro ensemble AO, PNA and NAO please. 

I am asking because the AO really seems to go deeper to -SD than a couple days ago from the CPC site. 

 

[CAPE]

MJO figures to have some impact around mid month. Tropical convection is pretty non existent, but is forecast to increase some near the MC going forward. GEFS and EURO have it emerging from the COD into phase 4/5, but for now it looks like it would be on the weaker side.

[Rhino16]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

3 events over the next 2 weeks.

The mountains need all they can get right now if people want to ski and board...

[CAPE]

51 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

If you use the h5 vorticity maps and fast fwd frame by frame ( I use wxbell) the shear number of shortwaves interacting is nuts . Do it with the op Euro or Gfs . Point is ...its busy . I wouldn't be surprised if a clipper or a storm pops in the near medium range( day 4-5) or short range (inside 3 days ). Far from boring.  Really all one could ask for in  early December .

Mount Holly concurs on uncertainty with lots of moving pieces..

Unfortunately, model spread is rather high next weekend when the southern-stream system is expected to phase with yet another digging vort max from central/eastern Canada. The solutions suggest strong cyclogenesis will occur as the surface low somewhere in the southeastern U.S. lifts northeastward during the weekend, but ultimate tracks are anywhere from the spine of the Appalachians (00z GFS) to the lee of the higher terrain (00z CMC) to well offshore (00z ECMWF), with widely varying sensible-weather results for our area. At this point, it seems prudent to mention that a potentially strong storm system may affect the area next weekend, but the details will require improved model consensus.

[anotherman]

[poolz1]

21 minutes ago, CAPE said:

MJO figures to have some impact around mid month. Tropical convection is pretty non existent, but is forecast to increase some near the MC going forward. GEFS and EURO have it emerging from the COD into phase 4/5, but for now it looks like it would be on the weaker side.

Today's forecast just made the waters muddier.  Most of the time is spent in the COD if emerging at all....interesting that without influence from tropical forcing, models have a serviceable pattern. 

I think we are all just waiting for the inevitable return of the NPAC ridge... Then again, maybe we keep this ball rolling a find we have several decent pattern periods throughout winter.

[BristowWx]

The pattern change part from Horst sounds encouraging.  Not sure we won’t see another 60s day around these parts after Monday.  We seem to make spectacular showings of warmth right around Dec 24th.  

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

3 events over the next 2 weeks.

Kids keep asking about snow. Might take them to black water falls for a day. 

[psuhoffman]

22 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Today's forecast just made the waters muddier.  Most of the time is spent in the COD if emerging at all....interesting that without influence from tropical forcing, models have a serviceable pattern. 

I think we are all just waiting for the inevitable return of the NPAC ridge... Then again, maybe we keep this ball rolling a find we have several decent pattern periods throughout winter.

The MJO living in high amp warm phases waa a big part of our problems recently.  One positive of a strong Nina is typically that suppresses the MJO. 

[clskinsfan]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

As @Bob Chill always said (btw, he needs to get his ass in here), most of our events pop up under the D6 time frame.  Rarely do we have a long tracking event that's picked out at D8-12.  13-14 winter was notorious for events that showed up around D4-5.  

This is true. But it is funny how the really big ones are usually picked up at long range by the models. The 2010 blizzards and 2016 were modelled almost perfectly a week out. 

[WxUSAF]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

The MJO living in high amp warm phases waa a big part of our problems recently.  One positive of a strong Nina is typically that suppresses the MJO. 

Paul Roundy apparently saw this Nino-like period coming based on his MJO-based sub seasonal forecasting. He’s expecting a Nina-like pattern with a SE ridge for later in December, but has that evolving into a -NAO in January. 

[LP08]

Let’s not do this with an actual snow storm at 150 hours this year...The panic room would be flooded hah

[psuhoffman]

27 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Paul Roundy apparently saw this Nino-like period coming based on his MJO-based sub seasonal forecasting. He’s expecting a Nina-like pattern with a SE ridge for later in December, but has that evolving into a -NAO in January. 

We have had some good blocking periods in strong Nina’s.  They aren’t always wall to wall trash.  One way this winter could turn out ok would be if the enso suppresses the strong MC convection we have suffered from recently due to the IO and western PAC SSTs, but at the same time the rare (for a Nina) warmth in the northeast PAC short circuits the typical Nina response wrt the central pac ridge and subsequent western Canada trough.   Not saying I believe that’s the most likely result as of now. Just one plausible hypothetical way this winter ends up a fond memory. I’m skeptical of anything long range honestly. Nothing in our records correlates to this level of warmth, especially in the SSTs. There is a lot of volatility in previously thought to be stable pattern drivers like the QBO. Enso correlations have been less reliable. We’ve seen some odd combinations. Lots of extremes.  It’s obvious that overall odds skew warm in any given period. But that doesn’t mean we won’t ever get cold snowy periods and I personally feel way less confident in predicting when and how they come very far in advance given the current state of things. I won’t speak for others, I am sure there are those way more skilled than I, but I do not have much confidence in anything super long range either way right now.  I don’t mind that though. Makes things more exciting imo. 

[psuhoffman]

11 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Let’s not do this with an actual snow storm at 150 hours this year...The panic room would be flooded hah

Anyone putting emotional investment in a storm 150h out with that kind of convoluted h5 progression deserves whatever heartache they get. 

[psuhoffman]

55 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

This is true. But it is funny how the really big ones are usually picked up at long range by the models. The 2010 blizzards and 2016 were modelled almost perfectly a week out. 

Incredibly anomalous events usually are the result of equally anomalous larger scale pattern drivers that guidance can more easily identify at range. 

[LP08]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Anyone putting emotional investment in a storm 150h out with that kind of convoluted h5 progression deserves whatever heartache they get. 

Are you new here? Lol jk

 

There are so many SW in the pattern should be fun to see how it all evolves.  Let’s hope we can get some real cold air to settle in.

[psuhoffman]

It’s a long shot but the para Gfs 0z evolution is probably the only shot at snow here from later this week. Keeping the system split and having the lead wave pass then amplify and pull on some cold for the STJ system right behind it. The wrapped up bomb idea has no chance to work out since there is no cold in front and an amplifying phased system will end up near the thermal gradient. 

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

This is the fun period. Any December snow is nice. At least y’all understand that. There’s a small outbreak of Panic amongst New Englanders right now for reasons I don’t understand.  

Just curious...we panic when it seems like we might get no snow at all. Do they panic at the first hints they might not get 100” this season? lol 

[40westwx]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s a long shot but the para Gfs 0z evolution is probably the only shot at snow here from later this week. Keeping the system split and having the lead wave pass then amplify and pull on some cold for the STJ system right behind it. The wrapped up bomb idea has no chance to work out since there is no cold in front and an amplifying phased system will end up near the thermal gradient. 

I have bunch of time off from work and two kids that want to learn how to ski.. so I am hoping for the "wrapped up bomb"

[psuhoffman]

Just now, 40westwx said:

I have bunch of time off from work and two kids that want to learn how to ski.. so I am hoping for the "wrapped up bomb"

Unfortunately only Snowshoe is likely to be open before mid December. They are opening Dec 4 but don’t expect much terrain. They have to build base and it’s been too warm. 10-20” of powder won’t help too much if there is no base down on the trail under it.  But if you just want to see some fresh snow and teach the tikes on the bunny hill that could be a good option. The other mid atl hills with less resources for snowmaking will likely take even longer to get up and running. 

[RDM]

8 minutes ago, 40westwx said:

I have bunch of time off from work and two kids that want to learn how to ski.. so I am hoping for the "wrapped up bomb"

Take em to 7-Springs in PA.  Only 3 hours and if anyone around here has snow, they do.  Put the kids in a ski school and head to the back side and hit Giant Steps.  Plenty of non-ski things to do for the kids in the lodge too.  

[snowman19]

25 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

We have had some good blocking periods in strong Nina’s.  They aren’t always wall to wall trash.  One way this winter could turn out ok would be if the enso suppresses the strong MC convection we have suffered from recently due to the IO and western PAC SSTs, but at the same time the rare (for a Nina) warmth in the northeast PAC short circuits the typical Nina response wrt the central pac ridge and subsequent western Canada trough.   Not saying I believe that’s the most likely result as of now. Just one plausible hypothetical way this winter ends up a fond memory. I’m skeptical of anything long range honestly. Nothing in our records correlates to this level of warmth, especially in the SSTs. There is a lot of volatility in previously thought to be stable pattern drivers like the QBO. Enso correlations have been less reliable. We’ve seen some odd combinations. Lots of extremes.  It’s obvious that overall odds skew warm in any given period. But that doesn’t mean we won’t ever get cold snowy periods and I personally feel way less confident in predicting when and how they come very far in advance given the current state of things. I won’t speak for others, I am sure there are those way more skilled than I, but I do not have much confidence in anything super long range either way right now.  I don’t mind that though. Makes things more exciting imo. 

Paul Roundy’s thoughts of January turning cold/snowy in the east after an overall mild December basically mirrors Isotherm’s winter forecast 

[BristowWx]

7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Some of them think they live in Atlanta, but after last year we just might be lol. I saw 3.7”, between 12/15 and 3/20 last season. That’s bad anywhere.

If they are thinking Atlanta that would make us Orlando.  It doesn’t snow much in Orlando. 

[WEATHER53]

1 hour ago, RDM said:

Take em to 7-Springs in PA.  Only 3 hours and if anyone around here has snow, they do.  Put the kids in a ski school and head to the back side and hit Giant Steps.  Plenty of non-ski things to do for the kids in the lodge too.  

We go every year for 5 days in Jan

really a lot to do 

[Maestrobjwa]

2 hours ago, LP08 said:

Let’s not do this with an actual snow storm at 150 hours this year...The panic room would be flooded hah

I mean...ain't that a normal nina progression? Lol

[Maestrobjwa]

2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

This is the fun period. Any December snow is nice. At least y’all understand that. There’s a small outbreak of Panic amongst New Englanders right now for reasons I don’t understand.  

Wait what? Man don't they get snow every nina?? (except maybe 96). I mean they cash in on late developers all the time...so what's their problem? Lol

[RDM]

45 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

We go every year for 5 days in Jan

really a lot to do 

Great - I used to hang out in 7-Sp a lot years ago before settling down.  Had a group of telemark friends that were a blast to hang out with in the Foggy Goggle.  20+ years later and an untold number of additional pounds and it would be ugly to hit the slopes again.  Lots of good memories from up that way.  

[CAPE]

Just looking at h5, I would say thats a paste bomb for the highlands. 

[WEATHER53]

51 minutes ago, RDM said:

Great - I used to hang out in 7-Sp a lot years ago before settling down.  Had a group of telemark friends that were a blast to hang out with in the Foggy Goggle.  20+ years later and an untold number of additional pounds and it would be ugly to hit the slopes again.  Lots of good memories from up that way.  

I snow tube and snowmobile .  Try for one nice dinner at Helens. Another in Oak room. We get a party room so do some late night card playing and other mischief. I like to walk around the property behind the towers, it’s so pretty.

Last years suck winter was made better as when we arrived it was 20 and snowing and blowing so got a fix.

Ra*dy  we need to do a mini conference up there.