NorthArlington101 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 11 minutes ago, Amped said: UKMET is 6-10 for most of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 39 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: How much of that is Monday? Inch or two at most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Surprised with the evolution and lock step from previous runs my totals got cut in half down here. I don’t get it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 12 minutes ago, CAPE said: I'm not sure its the track as much as it is the strength/position of the confluence and the surface High to our NE. CMC has the High in a better position and a bit stronger, and even with the super tucked in track, 850s stay colder for eastern areas compared to the GFS. Talked last night about high. Need it closer to tip of Hudson than Maine 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 59 minutes ago, PhineasC said: You new here? @mappy kicked me off and then I created a new account... but no.. why do you ask Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Crazy uncle shows up to the party late with generic chips and salsa 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Here we go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Buffkit Time. Obviously just for fun this far out. I will post them as we get closer to the storm. 12Z GFS: DCA: 201216/1300Z 97 07008KT 30.5F SNOW 7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.011 7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0 201216/1400Z 98 07008KT 29.7F SNOW 11:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012 9:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02 100| 0| 0 201216/1500Z 99 07007KT 29.4F SNOW 16:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.056 14:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.08 100| 0| 0 201216/1600Z 100 07008KT 30.6F SNOW 11:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.081 12:1| 2.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.16 100| 0| 0 201216/1700Z 101 06008KT 30.8F SNOW 10:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.107 12:1| 3.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.27 100| 0| 0 201216/1800Z 102 06008KT 32.1F SNOW 14:1| 1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.117 12:1| 4.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.38 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 201216/1900Z 103 06009KT 32.1F ZRSN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.161 12:1| 4.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.55 84| 0| 16 201216/2000Z 104 05009KT 32.3F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.115 12:1| 4.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.66 72| 0| 28 201216/2100Z 105 05011KT 33.2F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.133 12:1| 4.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.79 61| 0| 39 201216/2200Z 106 05010KT 33.2F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.090 12:1| 4.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.88 60| 0| 40 201216/2300Z 107 03008KT 33.3F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.146 12:1| 4.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.03 57| 0| 43 201217/0000Z 108 01008KT 33.2F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.093 12:1| 4.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.12 60| 0| 40 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 201217/0100Z 109 02011KT 32.6F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.082 12:1| 4.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.20 0| 0|100 201217/0200Z 110 01010KT 31.5F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.05|| 0.048 12:1| 4.7|| 0.00|| 0.05|| 1.25 0| 0|100 201217/0300Z 111 34009KT 31.7F SNPL 1:1| 0.0|| 0.06|| 0.00|| 0.038 11:1| 4.7|| 0.06|| 0.05|| 1.29 22| 78| 0 201217/0400Z 112 36011KT 31.4F SNPL 3:1| 0.1|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.026 11:1| 4.8|| 0.08|| 0.05|| 1.32 52| 48| 0 201217/0500Z 113 35010KT 30.3F SNOW 6:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.037 10:1| 5.0|| 0.08|| 0.05|| 1.35 100| 0| 0 201217/0600Z 114 35010KT 29.2F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.03|| 0.027 10:1| 5.0|| 0.08|| 0.08|| 1.38 0| 0|100 BWI: 201216/1300Z 97 07009KT 30.6F SNOW 8:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012 8:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0 201216/1400Z 98 07008KT 31.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 8:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 0| 0| 0 201216/1500Z 99 07009KT 29.7F SNOW 17:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.029 14:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04 100| 0| 0 201216/1600Z 100 07010KT 30.5F SNOW 12:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.078 13:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.12 100| 0| 0 201216/1700Z 101 07011KT 31.4F SNOW 20:1| 2.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.116 17:1| 3.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.23 100| 0| 0 201216/1800Z 102 06010KT 31.7F SNOW 16:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.087 16:1| 5.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.32 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 201216/1900Z 103 07011KT 32.1F SNOW 14:1| 1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.128 16:1| 7.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.45 100| 0| 0 201216/2000Z 104 06011KT 32.6F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.099 16:1| 7.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.55 81| 0| 19 201216/2100Z 105 06013KT 32.4F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.121 16:1| 7.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.67 84| 0| 16 201216/2200Z 106 03012KT 32.6F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.104 16:1| 7.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.77 74| 0| 26 201216/2300Z 107 04009KT 32.6F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.187 16:1| 7.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.96 81| 0| 19 201217/0000Z 108 04011KT 32.4F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.147 16:1| 7.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.11 84| 0| 16 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 201217/0100Z 109 02012KT 31.5F SNOW 16:1| 1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.104 16:1| 8.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.21 100| 0| 0 201217/0200Z 110 02014KT 31.0F SNPL 2:1| 0.2|| 0.17|| 0.00|| 0.103 14:1| 8.9|| 0.17|| 0.00|| 1.31 15| 85| 0 201217/0300Z 111 03014KT 30.6F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.12|| 0.113 14:1| 8.9|| 0.17|| 0.12|| 1.43 0| 0|100 201217/0400Z 112 35010KT 29.7F SNOW 5:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.064 13:1| 9.2|| 0.17|| 0.12|| 1.49 100| 0| 0 201217/0500Z 113 01012KT 28.8F SNOW 11:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.033 13:1| 9.6|| 0.17|| 0.12|| 1.52 100| 0| 0 201217/0600Z 114 36011KT 29.2F SNOW 6:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.063 12:1| 10.0|| 0.17|| 0.12|| 1.59 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 201217/0700Z 115 36010KT 28.3F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.03|| 0.024 12:1| 10.0|| 0.17|| 0.14|| 1.61 0| 0|100 IAD: 201216/1200Z 96 07005KT 30.3F SNOW 8:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.011 8:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 201216/1300Z 97 07005KT 29.9F SNOW 14:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.015 12:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03 100| 0| 0 201216/1400Z 98 06005KT 27.0F SNOW 15:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.019 13:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04 100| 0| 0 201216/1500Z 99 06005KT 27.8F SNOW 15:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.096 14:1| 2.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.14 100| 0| 0 201216/1600Z 100 05007KT 28.8F SNOW 14:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.105 14:1| 3.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.25 100| 0| 0 201216/1700Z 101 05007KT 29.6F SNOW 9:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.101 13:1| 4.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.35 100| 0| 0 201216/1800Z 102 03008KT 30.6F SNOW 8:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.127 11:1| 5.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.47 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 201216/1900Z 103 03008KT 31.5F SNOW 18:1| 3.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.177 13:1| 8.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.65 100| 0| 0 201216/2000Z 104 03007KT 31.5F SNOW 15:1| 2.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.157 14:1| 11.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.81 100| 0| 0 201216/2100Z 105 03009KT 32.1F SNOW 15:1| 2.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.179 14:1| 13.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.99 100| 0| 0 201216/2200Z 106 01008KT 31.9F SNOW 17:1| 2.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.125 14:1| 15.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.11 100| 0| 0 201216/2300Z 107 01009KT 31.5F SNOW 5:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.109 13:1| 16.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.22 100| 0| 0 201217/0000Z 108 02010KT 31.7F SNOW 7:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.093 13:1| 17.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.31 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 201217/0100Z 109 36010KT 31.9F SNOW 14:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.059 13:1| 17.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.37 100| 0| 0 201217/0200Z 110 36010KT 31.0F SNOW 11:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.033 13:1| 18.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.40 100| 0| 0 201217/0300Z 111 35011KT 29.0F SNOW 8:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.022 13:1| 18.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.43 100| 0| 0 201217/0400Z 112 34012KT 27.9F SNOW 10:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.035 13:1| 18.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.46 100| 0| 0 201217/0500Z 113 34012KT 27.2F SNOW 6:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.029 13:1| 19.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.49 100| 0| 0 MRB: 201216/1200Z 96 08006KT 25.1F SNOW 7:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007 7:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 201216/1300Z 97 07006KT 22.5F SNOW 10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012 9:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02 100| 0| 0 201216/1400Z 98 09004KT 23.4F SNOW 8:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.044 8:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.06 100| 0| 0 201216/1500Z 99 VRB02KT 24.3F SNOW 17:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.081 13:1| 1.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.14 100| 0| 0 201216/1600Z 100 04004KT 24.3F SNOW 19:1| 2.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.147 16:1| 4.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.29 100| 0| 0 201216/1700Z 101 03004KT 24.9F SNOW 19:1| 2.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.126 17:1| 7.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.42 100| 0| 0 201216/1800Z 102 02004KT 25.4F SNOW 18:1| 2.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.114 17:1| 9.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.53 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 201216/1900Z 103 01007KT 25.8F SNOW 12:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.115 16:1| 10.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.65 100| 0| 0 201216/2000Z 104 01007KT 26.7F SNOW 12:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.124 16:1| 12.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.77 100| 0| 0 201216/2100Z 105 01008KT 27.0F SNOW 10:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.120 15:1| 13.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.89 100| 0| 0 201216/2200Z 106 01008KT 27.4F SNOW 13:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.113 15:1| 14.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.00 100| 0| 0 201216/2300Z 107 01008KT 26.9F SNOW 14:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.099 15:1| 16.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.10 100| 0| 0 201217/0000Z 108 36009KT 26.7F SNOW 17:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.081 15:1| 17.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.18 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 201217/0100Z 109 01011KT 26.9F SNOW 10:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.080 14:1| 18.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.26 100| 0| 0 201217/0200Z 110 01009KT 26.7F SNOW 11:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.052 14:1| 18.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.31 100| 0| 0 201217/0300Z 111 36008KT 26.1F SNOW 15:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.033 14:1| 19.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.35 100| 0| 0 201217/0400Z 112 33006KT 26.1F SNOW 11:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008 14:1| 19.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.36 100| 0| 0 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 UKMET is 6-10 for most of the area. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ji said: I would take that in a heartbeat. Maybe not out your way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Crazy uncle shows up to the party late with generic chips and salsa And a 12 pack of Corona. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, Ji said: Save that for when the euro pushes the mix line to Round Hill 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 minute ago, Scraff said: And a 12 pack of Corona. 6 pack of corona light 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 8 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Buffkit Time. Obviously just for fun this far out. I will post them as we get closer to the storm. 12Z GFS: F**k’s sake... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, WxUSAF said: 6 pack of corona light Ponies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 10 minutes ago, 40westwx said: @mappy kicked me off and then I created a new account... but no.. why do you ask You think a snow storm "locks in" 4+ days out. LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 hour ago, Vice-Regent said: The mean would be ineffectual guidance in this setup because it's blending the solutions together. The outcome will be all or nothing. You guys are seasoned veterans and this is 101 stuff. Incorrect. Ensembles are not deterministic guidance, which are the individual op runs you're interpreting to be all or nothing, or individual members of the ensemble package designed to show degrees of variance eventually translating to a mean. Now, the ensembles do become less descriptive (in a sense) as you approach the event's starting point because the degree to which the synoptic set up varies, is greatly reduced as it greatly correlated to its time variable, i.e. as time to event decreases, synoptic variables become more certain. Hence using deterministic guidance -- op runs. Ensembles 4-5 days out and using a mean to determine general themes is quite useful. ^ Run on thought... but thats the best way I can put it, as I understand it. A red tagger could be more eloquent with the phrasing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, PhineasC said: You think a snow storm "locks in" 4+ days out. LOL #Jan2016...aka easiest tracking ever. But it's kinda rare! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 hour ago, Buddy1987 said: @Disc how do soundings look down here? I haven't really gotten down to those details yet, but a guess now that everyone along and east of the Blue Ridge mixes at some point. The exception to that would be further north in northern Virginia. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: #Jan2016...aka easiest tracking ever. But it's kinda rare! 100%. That was crazy accurate... it was like: just sit back, relax, and enjoy the show. (every model run) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Not sure if already posted but damn 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, PivotPoint said: 100%. That was crazy accurate... it was like: just sit back, relax, and enjoy the show. (every model run) That was a golden week right there...ain't never seen consensus from like 7-8 days out be that rock-steady! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 5 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: GFS has the R/S line jump 20 miles to the south despite the low being a hair farther west. It's likely due to better cold air delivery. I hope you aren't looking at those wonky surface p-type maps to make that assessment lol. GFS has plenty of rain for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, CAPE said: I hope you aren't looking at those wonky surface p-type maps to make that assessment lol. GFS has plenty of rain for our area. Disregard it.. bad post from me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: Not sure if already posted but damn Little mixy for most east of winchester. NY gets crushed. The low fully matures and mixing disappears as the low hits 40north . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 EURO is weaker with Monday storm....hope that does not translate into a problem for midweek Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: EURO is weaker with Monday storm....hope that does translate into a problem for midweek Darn...don't wanna see that become a thing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 accuweather thinking possible MAJOR ice storm D.C points south. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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