WxUSAF Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Catching up. Gfs and ggem are classic mid-Atlantic MECS. Not much to say. Verbatim ggem gives me 11” in 6 hours Wednesday afternoon. As much as that would thrill my weenie soul, I’ll take the under and hope I’m wrong. Snow starts in under 4 days...stay on target. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 WB GDPS 4pm Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, Scraff said: King Euro better not rain our snow parade. Of all the 3 "main" models, the Euro is perhaps the most iffy, so to speak, for the metro areas and southeast. But even with that, it's still been a pretty solid hit or better (depending on location of course)...and not far from the GFS and CMC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, 40westwx said: For anyone north of Baltimore, to me it seems fairly locked in at this point. We are just at 96 hours.. if we get one more day of model runs like this.. and it fails.. we are looking at a huge bust. You new here? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Now what would have to happen to make it go a tad SE?Just a little less amped on Wednesday? At this point not sure there is much that can change it. Yeah a flatter wave could do it- but probably not likely. A bit stronger confluence/suppression/stronger high up north is the best answer, or...the low bombing further south and a tad less tucked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Catching up. Gfs and ggem are classic mid-Atlantic MECS. Not much to say. Verbatim ggem gives me 11” in 6 hours Wednesday afternoon. As much as that would thrill my weenie soul, I’ll take the under and hope I’m wrong. Snow starts in under 4 days...stay on target. From your experience do you think nw banding will increase as we get closer farther to the south/southwest for NC foothills/VA and up into you all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 4 minutes ago, 40westwx said: For anyone north of Baltimore, to me it seems fairly locked in at this point. We are just at 96 hours.. if we get one more day of model runs like this.. and it fails.. we are looking at a huge bust. Uhhhhh no. It's looking very good, but this is no lock if you're north of Baltimore, especially not 4 days out when you aren't far from precip type issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, CAPE said: At this point not sure there is much that can change it. Yeah a flatter wave could do it- but probably not likely. A bit stronger confluence/suppression/stronger high up north is the best answer, or...the low bombing further south and a tad less tucked. Ggem has the low track like right over OCMD. Assumption with a track like that should be mixing to the fall line AT LEAST. Gfs actually has the more classic 50mi east of OCMD track for an all snow storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: From your experience do you think nw banding will increase as we get closer farther to the south/southwest for NC foothills/VA and up into you all? There’s always banding features. Tuesday is the time to analyze those. N/W always favored. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, WxUSAF said: Ggem has the low track like right over OCMD. Assumption with a track like that should be mixing to the fall line AT LEAST. Gfs actually has the more classic 50mi east of OCMD track for an all snow storm. Biggies always mix around these parts. I will take a couple hours of sleety snow here if it means I get 15-20" overall. That's the tradeoff that has to occur. No big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Ggem has the low track like right over OCMD. Assumption with a track like that should be mixing to the fall line AT LEAST. Gfs actually has the more classic 50mi east of OCMD track for an all snow storm. Yeah I noticed that. Has it further west this run but nearly the same result. Not really a deeper low at that point either. Odd, ofc it is the CMC lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 WB Canadian total snowfall 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, Weather Will said: WB Canadian total snowfall Even if ya cut that in half for the usual caveats...what would that be...8"+ even for the cities? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Sounds crazy but 12z GEFS and CMC were actually a slight step back from prior runs for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB Canadian total snowfall How much of that is Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: There’s always banding features. Tuesday is the time to analyze those. N/W always favored. Keep that high strengthening and the storm could have a short stall or at least bit longer duration event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 7 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Biggies always mix around these parts. I will take a couple hours of sleety snow here if it means I get 15-20" overall. That's the tradeoff that has to occur. No big deal. I’m selling on those kind of totals due to the speed of the storm. Ggem with like 5-10 hours of 2”/hr rates? Doubtful. Maybe our west where ratios could be better. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: How much of that is Monday? CMC has no accums for monday outside of the WV ridge tops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wizard021 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Ukie trended east . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 7 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB Canadian total snowfall 4 inches isn't bad for December, but wow that's quite the cutoff... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, WxUSAF said: I’m selling on those kind of totals due to the speed of the storm. Ggem with like 5-10 hours of 2”/hr rates? Doubtful. Maybe our west where ratios could be better. Usually a good call. 8-10 would be the best storm in a long time for my part of MD so fine by me. I was expecting 0.0" this winter so it's all a bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, poolz1 said: CMC has no accums for monday outside of the WV ridge tops Lol. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 10 minutes ago, CAPE said: Yeah I noticed that. Has it further west this run but nearly the same result. Not really a deeper low at that point either. Odd, ofc it is the CMC lol. 50mi wobbles are well within the noise even down to t-24hr. All in all pretty consistent. Hopefully it’s consistent for good reasons lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 14 minutes ago, wizard021 said: Ukie trended east . All eyes on Dr. No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 40 minutes ago, 40westwx said: For anyone north of Baltimore, to me it seems fairly locked in at this point. We are just at 96 hours.. if we get one more day of model runs like this.. and it fails.. we are looking at a huge bust. Brother this is the Mid Atlantic. The only weather thing we do well is fails. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 50mi wobbles are well within the noise even down to t-24hr. All in all pretty consistent. Hopefully it’s consistent for good reasons lol. I'm not sure its the track as much as it is the strength/position of the confluence and the surface High to our NE. CMC has the High in a better position and a bit stronger, and even with the super tucked in track, 850s stay colder for eastern areas compared to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 UKMET is 6-10 for most of the area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 minute ago, Amped said: UKMET is 6-10 for most of the area. Ukie been on an island for two days now. Either it is going to score a coup or it will fold to the rest of the models tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 53 minutes ago, PivotPoint said: Canada's on board. Moved away a bit from the amped solutions over past 24hr, but tbh it has had the overall H5 a little better than Euro and GFS did 24hrs ago, imo. See if that holds. It seems when we have stable blocking (relative) the models do much better in that 4-7 day time frame. Run-run consistency seems high. Haven't seen that since 2016 HECS -- during winter at least. Of concern are the 2m temps here, per the 12z GFS during the height of the storm weds. However, given the time of year and other dynamics this storm will likely produce, it is possible most if not all DC stays vast majority frozen. Parts SE always struggle even in perfect setups Norfolk getting no higher than 40 will be a key in if milder air is surging toward here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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