NorthArlington101 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Now you have to rearrange and start again i'll make one for the obs thread 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 We should actually play this bingo thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Per Pivotal maps, the 12z GFS has 925s as close as Waldorf and across southern part of PG, AA Co. Thats at 108hr. 850s get right to Woodbridge same timeframe. But crash back down for both from 108hr onward. So that's as close as I want. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Bingo! The only thing missing is "Prompts the return of Bob Chill" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 @Disc how do soundings look down here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Bingo! Does that mean we all get to cash in now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
batmanbrad Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Does that mean we all get to cash in now? or do we get to CRAS (doesn't a reference to that model belong somewhere on the bingo board?) in now? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 And before it happens ... if anybody except @yoda starts the next long range thread I vote for an immediate winter long suspension. @stormtracker you need to step in on this one. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: And before it happens ... if anybody except @yoda starts the next long range thread I vote for an immediate winter long suspension. @stormtracker you need to step in on this one. We are a superstitious group. When or if we start a storm thread, I vote whoever started the 2016 Jan storm get the honors... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 12Z WB GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, GATECH said: We are a superstitious group. When or if we start a storm thread, I vote whoever started the 2016 Jan storm get the honors... Call it the “2020 Vaccine Storm”. The one we all need! 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 I vote for yoda. He’s money with the pbp and he’s a frickin’ Jedi master. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Its gonna stay cold for a while too.. so this will stick around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just like old times, December snowstorms and meaningful football for Washington 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 For those in the cities and especially s/e of 95... We better hope this thing doesn't tuck anymore or we'll be dealing with a quick 2-4" followed by a crap ton of rain. Not sure if there is a correlation but it does seem that as the models have become more amped for Monday the Wednesday storm is closer to the coast and the warm push is more and more pronounced. I'm still super excited and would take anything after the last couple of years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, Weather Will said: 12Z WB GEFS. Everyone shows 9''+ for my cabin in WV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 minute ago, MD Snow said: For those in the cities and especially s/e of 95... We better hope this thing doesn't tuck anymore or we'll be dealing with a quick 2-4' followed by a crap ton of rain. Not sure if there is a correlation but it does seem that as the models have become more amped for Monday the Wednesday storm is closer to the coast and the warm push is legit. It's clear where this is coming in. People can torment themselves over the loss coming or consider December climo + other factors like -AMO and AGW. If it's inevitable why keep tormenting yourself? Living on the Cape gives you better hindsight. We are good at cutting losses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 GEFS mean is also impressive. Includes Monday's event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 9 minutes ago, H2O said: Per Pivotal maps, the 12z GFS has 925s as close as Waldorf and across southern part of PG, AA Co. Thats at 108hr. 850s get right to Woodbridge same timeframe. But crash back down for both from 108hr onward. So that's as close as I want. But do you REALLY tho? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 8 minutes ago, MD Snow said: For those in the cities and especially s/e of 95... We better hope this thing doesn't tuck anymore or we'll be dealing with a quick 2-4" followed by a crap ton of rain. Not sure if there is a correlation but it does seem that as the models have become more amped for Monday the Wednesday storm is closer to the coast and the warm push is legit. no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Canada's on board. Moved away a bit from the amped solutions over past 24hr, but tbh it has had the overall H5 a little better than Euro and GFS did 24hrs ago, imo. See if that holds. It seems when we have stable blocking (relative) the models do much better in that 4-7 day time frame. Run-run consistency seems high. Haven't seen that since 2016 HECS -- during winter at least. Of concern are the 2m temps here, per the 12z GFS during the height of the storm weds. However, given the time of year and other dynamics this storm will likely produce, it is possible most if not all DC stays vast majority frozen. Parts SE always struggle even in perfect setups 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: GEFS mean is also impressive. Includes Monday's event. That's a great looking ens mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, MD Snow said: For those in the cities and especially s/e of 95... We better hope this thing doesn't tuck anymore or we'll be dealing with a quick 2-4' followed by a crap ton of rain. Not sure if there is a correlation but it does seem that as the models have become more amped for Monday the Wednesday storm is closer to the coast and the warm push is legit. That is already likely the case for SE of I95, if GFS and EURO are correct. Just looked at the GEFS, and its hours and hours of rain here with temps in the upper 30s verbatim. Need several ticks SE to give your area a buffer, and give me some decent snow. Went slightly the other way on the 12z GFS/GEFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, PivotPoint said: That's a great looking ens mean The mean would be ineffectual guidance in this setup because it's blending the solutions together. The outcome will be all or nothing. You guys are seasoned veterans and this is 101 stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Here's how the last couple days of model runs seemed... --00/12Z GFS: Total beat-down, pummeling, crushed! --00/12Z CMC: Hold my beer...! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: That is already likely the case for SE of I95, if GFS and EURO are correct. Just looked at the GEFS, and its hours and hours of rain here with temps in the upper 30s verbatim. Need several ticks SE to give your area a buffer, and give me some decent snow. Went slightly the other way on the 12z GFS/GEFS. Now what would have to happen to make it go a tad SE?Just a little less amped on Wednesday? (or is this a double-edged sword...and that we don't want less amped because ya want the rates?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: But do you REALLY tho? What I want is the 0 line down by Tallahassee 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 7 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Here's how the last couple days of model runs seemed... --00/12Z GFS: Total beat-down, pummeling, crushed! --00/12Z CMC: Hold my beer...! For anyone north of Baltimore, to me it seems fairly locked in at this point. We are just at 96 hours.. if we get one more day of model runs like this.. and it fails.. we are looking at a huge bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 2" per hour rates on the CMC lol. 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Here's how the last couple days of model runs seemed... --00/12Z GFS: Total beat-down, pummeling, crushed! --00/12Z CMC: Hold my beer...! King Euro better not rain our snow parade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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