Kevin Reilly Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 minute ago, LP08 said: Just for posterity. Has been considerably less in prior runs. Take away it’s beginning to look more like the other models at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: Its because it has a "bomb" for Monday in relative terms. Its like low 990s off NJ Monday I feel a nuclear assault inbound via GFS shortly. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: Its because it has a "bomb" for Monday in relative terms. Its like low 990s off NJ Monday Looks like it follows the @psuhoffman theory! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 25 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Antecedent cold isn’t a concern in this event outside of the usual SE spots imo. Here’s the 00z EPS high temperature 50th percentile chart. Forget about the verbatim numbers for a second and look at the wedge of cold nestled all the way into upstate South Carolina. That’s a very strong CAD signal. Again, this is the ensemble so it’s not a random drawing like an op run can be. The cold is in place in most locations as the storm is arriving. Now that doesn’t mean mixing won’t happen or that things can’t trend warmer at the surface or aloft, but that’s a great signal right there. Right on cue. I look for the cad to just keep getting more pronounced as we go forward 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: I feel a nuclear assault inbound via GFS shortly. It’s the old windshield wiper effect. All the models going to do this through at least tomorrow I’m guessing. Monday seems like the lock it up day. That said, I’m also feeling this next GFS gonna rock us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: I feel a nuclear assault inbound via GFS shortly. I feel this is a critical run because of Monday impacts. We should see a better idea of what happens Monday to set the stage for Wednesday.. But, if a rug can be pulled, football picked up, or whatever, this may give us some insight. Just my 2 cents. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, midatlanticweather said: I feel this is a critical run because of Monday impacts. We should see a better idea of what happens Monday to set the stage for Wednesday.. But, if a rug can be pulled, football picked up, or whatever, this may give us some insight. Just my 2 cents. Yea, 12z Tuesday suite is my go/no go for Wednesday. By then the Monday event is gone and we'll know for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 We all know deep down we will be worried until the snow starts no matter what the models say, and then we will be worried about the radar from then on. LOL 5 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 10 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: I feel a nuclear assault inbound via GFS shortly. It will be a nuke for the interior and the Beltway and SE folks (myself included) will fret over a 6 mile shift in the r/s line and zoom in on soundings even though we are 4 days out. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, PhineasC said: We all know deep down we will be worried until the snow starts no matter what the models say, and then we will be worried about the radar from then on. LOL JI already sees the back edge. 1 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 We need @yoda brought good juju yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 2 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Honestly, I feel like less than double digits will be disappointing after all of the digital snow we have seen... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said: Honestly, I feel like less than double digits will be disappointing after all of the digital snow we have seen... Do you remember last winter? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, LeesburgWx said: Honestly, I feel like less than double digits will be disappointing after all of the digital snow we have seen... Never trust the 10:1 snow maps unless the whole column stays below -7. Otherwise, expect 2"-4" and be happy with what you get. It's just part of the climo of this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Well the Monday storm on the GFS is stronger than 6z, so there’s that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 minute ago, nj2va said: Do you remember last winter? I watched Men In Black and had it erased from my memory 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 minute ago, LP08 said: Well the Monday storm on the GFS is stronger than 6z, so there’s that. Sharper, more consolidated vort for Monday’s storm. Hopefully translates into a monster 50/50. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: Sharper, more consolidated vort for Monday’s storm. Hopefully translates into a monster 50/50. Previous L was 992. Down to 987 now. Great news so far for that 50/50 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: If you set that as the bar you might as well make a reservation in The Panic Room. I wouldn't even lock in double digits up here and I don't have a quarter of the concerns imby. I think warning level is achievable. From there, it's gravy IMO. Warning level is my bar too...I haven't had one verify imby since 2016, so...I'd take 5-8"! I am curious about what the ceiling will be though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 minute ago, Scraff said: Previous L was 992. Down to 987 now. Great news so far for that 50/50 Trough out west looks a little sharper and more “diggy” at 60 if there’s any slight difference. We’ll see how it translates downstream. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, nj2va said: Sharper, more consolidated vort for Monday’s storm. Hopefully translates into a monster 50/50. Heck yeah...keep it ampin'! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 The low looks to have bombed as it gets up in the favored spot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Through 72, slightly better confluence looking at 500 as heights are pressing down a bit more in the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 So far on the 12z OP GFS, the confluence to our north looks a touch better and the high in Quebec looks a tad better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 minute ago, nj2va said: Through 72, slightly better confluence looking at 500 as heights are pressing down a bit more in the NE. Agreed. Was just about to post this. Let’s see how it affects things. Can’t imagine it’s a bad thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Ever so slight, but I'm noticing with every GFS run a better CAD signal 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: So far on the 12z OP GFS, the confluence to our north looks a touch better and the high in Quebec looks a tad better. Agreed. At 84 you can see it’s positioned at that juncture more like Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 All good ticks so far through 93 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, LP08 said: All good ticks so far through 93 Juice bomb incoming. Low over mobile AL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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