Rhino16 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 0z CMC was some snow for me, 33 and rain as well, maybe some ice. Maybe some higher resolution would change everything. I kind of believe that’s what happened in 2018 down here when only a few expected a ton of snow. Sadly, NoVa got nothing, maybe this is just payback for that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 22 minutes ago, Cobalt said: I was the ripe old age of 0.5 at the time but 03-04 was frontloaded, no? Pretty sure there was a few good snows in December but not much else for the Mid Atlantic, from what I've seen. There was a nice 4-8” storm in late January but not much after Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 I should have gone to bed. Brutal for the beltway crew. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: I see a 1C layer in DC at both 925 and 850. Pretty close. Now with the 1035 high overhead...is the track what caused the slightly warmer solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 12, 2020 Author Share Posted December 12, 2020 I'm fine with the 00z EURO run. yeah, doesn't look like the CMC/GFS maps... but I am sure the EPS has a good amount of monster hits. The storm is there... and 50-75 miles is all we need as @Yeoman said above for all to cash in 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Guys, verbatim, the Euro is a HECS for areas west of Rt15 out towards I-81. If you looked at the trend from previous run, there were only minor changes, but one of them was a stronger antecedent airmass with a CAD wedge stemming from a 1037 high over Ottawa. 75 miles could make all the difference. There was a pristine deformation axis on this run that spanned all of I-81 from Front Royal to Harrisburg. You can't hate the run at this lead, but just be cautious if you live along the 95 corridor. This is pretty par for the course. One things for sure, it's a QPF bomb. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Trixie bullseye. Euro likes the 81 corridor again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, yoda said: I'm fine with the 00z EURO run. yeah, doesn't look like the CMC/GFS maps... but I am sure the EPS has a good amount of monster hits. The storm is there... and 50-75 miles is all we need as @Yeoman said above for all to cash in So this run was more about track than any other factor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 6 minutes ago, jaydreb said: I should have gone to bed. Brutal for the beltway crew. Going to be a long ride from Rockville to Hagerstown. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 12, 2020 Author Share Posted December 12, 2020 4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: So this run was more about track than any other factor? I would say that was part of it... usually for monster DCA hits... we want to see that SLP near OBX or a lil east of there. Tonight's EURO has it just inland of ORF. Get that east by like 50 miles and we all enjoy good amounts of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Thats 10-1 ratios on that map. I wonder if the deform snow wouldn't be higher ratios than that as well? Either way that is a historic December storm for the Shenandoah Valley. Crazy actually. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Yoda and Millville have it spot on. 95 is in the game and that's exactly where you want to be. EPS are probably going to show great hits. Mixing is always a risk there, but you can still cash in. 1C a few days out in a CAD setup isn't a bad place to be IMO. I don't think some will realize how close that particular run was to being an all timer for most of the sub-forum. The western crew are in immaculate shape right now. I mentioned last night Rt15 on west is in the sweet spot in my eyes, but everyone could easily cash with this one. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 The euro does tend to be over amped sometimes. Seeing it the most amplified isn’t unusual. If it nudges towards the other globals just a bit it’s huge. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wizard021 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 500 mb continues to look like presidents day 1979. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 So, looking at each of the 3 major globals, one of the main differences in each run with regards to ptype output is due to the low level wind differences for each run. The GFS has the most consolidated look and is further off the coast, so it's a large coverage of full snow, but doesn't max out the totals like the Canadian as it's more dynamic with a bombing cyclone tucked closer to the coast. There's a textbook deformation axis along the I-95 corridor and everyone gets pummeled. One of the biggest takeaways is the CMC and Euro both showing a double barreled low along the east coast, which will have impacts on the inward extent of the lower boundary layer wind field which could cause precip issues for those near I-95. The European is the most pronounced with the low structure over the Delmarva and 925/850mb easterlies extending back towards I-81. The warm fetch in the boundary layer would create a nose that would change the ptype from snow to sleet or even rain the further to the east you go. This is a classic WCB to CCB transition zone and will delineate the deformation axis where the two intersect. The CMC has the double barrel look as well, but the westward low is right along the coast, which is ~50-75 miles east of the Euro. And what do you know, everyone is all snow. It was that close. Both runs were similar in evolution, but the Euro was slightly more amplified. The stronger CAD signature is massive and was shown on every model run this evening. Keep that working and let the UL pattern fall over the next succession of days. A lot to track and we haven't even touched the mesoscale. 00z Euro 925mb Winds and MSLP CMC 925mb Winds and MSLP 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Get that bad euro taste out of your mouth, friends! 3 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 WB 0z runs, sorry just waking up or am I? the big three global together under 6 days. I must be dreaming... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 8 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: The stronger CAD signature is massive and was shown on every model run this evening. Keep that working and let the UL pattern fall over the next succession of days. A lot to track and we haven't even touched the mesoscale. Could you elaborate a bit more (not that you haven't already done a lot elaborating of course!) about how the stonger CAD signature would impact on what you just mentioned about with the "warm nose" this run of the euro showed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 WB Oz EPS thru Day 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 WB 0z EPS prob maps thru Day 6: 3, 6, 12, 18. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Hard to find a panel on EPS that doesn’t have snow of some kind for Many of us. Even some hits south east of DC. Good enough for 5 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 13 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Could you elaborate a bit more (not that you haven't already done a lot elaborating of course!) about how the stonger CAD signature would impact on what you just mentioned about with the "warm nose" this run of the euro showed? A stronger CAD signature allows for more breathing room within the boundary layer and a chance for colder surface temps at the beginning of the storm. One of the main things we've seen with these types of setups is the leads trend colder in the short term at the surface, but are a little warmer in the boundary layer above. A colder start means more wiggle room if there is an anomalous easterly component in the lower wind field. A strong easterly will not be denied, but it can be held off a bit. A solution like the CMC would be the best of both worlds. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 12, 2020 Author Share Posted December 12, 2020 Quick overview of the 50 00z EPS members... About 38 members have around 2" or more of snow at DCA About 26 members have around 6" or more of snow at DCA About 20 members have around 10" or more of snow at DCA 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 What's happening on euro at 240? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 hour ago, clskinsfan said: Thats 10-1 ratios on that map. I wonder if the deform snow wouldn't be higher ratios than that as well? Either way that is a historic December storm for the Shenandoah Valley. Crazy actually. That’s what I was thinking for the deform snow, too. 81 and the mountains are crushed...loving this run for Deep Creek, not gonna lie. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 12, 2020 Author Share Posted December 12, 2020 4 minutes ago, Ji said: What's happening on euro at 240? not much really even though h5 looks intriguing... looks like just a follow up wave... PW has it all offshore as rain. No real cold air in sight at 240 anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 4 minutes ago, Ji said: What's happening on euro at 240? Trailing shortwave pushing eastward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 What is really cool is that if we go back two weeks, the models had been hinting that the 15-20th was a window of opportunity and this forum has been all over it...you need a dash of luck to bring it across the finish line and it is looking more likely that it is going to happen. Hopefully in everyone’s backyard but N and W is looking really good right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, Weather Will said: What is really cool is that if we go back two weeks, the models had been hinting that the 15-20th was a window of opportunity....you need a dash of luck to bring it across the finish line and it is looking more likely that it is going to happen. Hopefully in everyone’s backyard but N and W is looking really good right now. Amazing what blocking and a 50/50 low can do. I almost forgot what those are like around here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: Amazing what blocking and a 50/50 low can do. I almost forgot what those are like around here. At the very least, this seems to be the best December setup since December 2009. I just couldn't believe what I was seeing in the days leading up to that storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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