WxMan1 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 28 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: We obviously should continue to be smart and have a critical eye on what flies are in the ointment, but the pattern just screams that someone will get smoked. It feels good to have a non-hostile NAO make a holiday visit. Many of you have noticed and said this before... It's always coming out of the -NAO min when things can get real interesting.. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 36 minutes ago, Snowchaser said: Only 12'' for me in Cville Dam it lol. Solid 30'' west of D.C Well we’ve seen the utter best of it so now what’s next? I like the 5 day away as best sensing but I know insurmountable change can occur. Looks like no one thinking it gets jerked away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 CMC, GFS and UKMET definitely show less northern stream involvement compared to 12z. It's subtle but heights over the Great lakes are higher during the storm. A good reason to be cautiously optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 5 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Well we’ve seen the utter best of it so now what’s next? I like the 5 day away as best sensing but I know insurmountable change can occur. Looks like no one thinking it gets jerked away. You can color me skeptical. I love what I’m seeing, but until the weekend front and Mondays storm passes, I’m laying low. But that’s me in general. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 This is a trend on the GEFS that should be noted for future runs. The CAD wedge is much more pronounced with a stronger HP over Quebec, and that will pay dividends in at least a better winter precip opportunity. You can also see the tongue of higher Theta-E's on this panel as well with the warmer trend in temps along the SE coast. That is further amplified on the next run, and is classic indication of a bombing surface cyclone at Mid Atlantic latitude. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 When the reaper says, “Good luck,” is anyone else wondering his motive? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 You guys recall any winters that had big mid December storms that didn’t end up being great seasons? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: You guys recall any winters that had big mid December storms that didn’t end up being great seasons? I was the ripe old age of 0.5 at the time but 03-04 was frontloaded, no? Pretty sure there was a few good snows in December but not much else for the Mid Atlantic, from what I've seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 I haven't seen 7H frontogenesis like this on a snow storm potential for the area since 2016. Both the GFS and CMC are stone cold assassins. I'll post more analysis comparing model runs after the Euro. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Long-time lurker here! Definitely going to be on the margin of rain/snow for this one (as usual on the southern edge of the Mid-Atlantic forum) but hoping for the first significant December snow since ... is it 2009? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Euro will probably be the only one to make the I-95 folks annoyed. Now if that sucker is cold like the GFS/CMC then..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 12, 2020 Author Share Posted December 12, 2020 1035mb HP near Lake Superior/Canadian border at 84 on 00z EURO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Euro will probably be the only one to make the I-95 folks annoyed. Now if that sucker is cold like the GFS/CMC then..... Absolutely, I understand what happens in these kind of storms down here around FXBG. Hope for 6"+ of snow down here doesn't seem too crazy. Here's hoping the Euro can deliver something nice here shortly. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 12, 2020 Author Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 12, 2020 Author Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 12, 2020 Author Share Posted December 12, 2020 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Seeing snow in western NC is a good sign. About to get wrecked i think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Snow up to DC at 1pm Wed 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deer Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Yoda with the play-by-play will never get old Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 12, 2020 Author Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 HP stronger than at 12z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Well, Rain in dc area by 7pm...mix n and w 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, stormtracker said: Well, Rain in dc area by 7pm...mix n and w Yeah. Pretty similar to 12z. Maybe a drop warmer? Still very close to a monster for DC though. All in all a very good 0z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, yoda said: That low needs to be 75 miles further SE 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Cutting with a 1033 high directly over top of us would be very 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Looks a lot like 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 0z CMC was some snow for me, 33 and rain as well, maybe some ice. Maybe some higher resolution would change everything. I kind of believe that’s what happened in 2018 down here when only a few expected a ton of snow. Sadly, NoVa got nothing, maybe this is just payback for that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 22 minutes ago, Cobalt said: I was the ripe old age of 0.5 at the time but 03-04 was frontloaded, no? Pretty sure there was a few good snows in December but not much else for the Mid Atlantic, from what I've seen. There was a nice 4-8” storm in late January but not much after Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 I should have gone to bed. Brutal for the beltway crew. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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