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December Medium/Long Range Discussion


yoda
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Yikes. This is looking good. I’ve already had too much to drink but need to stay up for Euro now. Tomorrow won’t be pretty. I was very hesitant on this system, it was a late bloomer to start but now there’s gulf moisture to it and the good 50/50 and the high in Canada to boot. It has went from a questionable set up to an almost perfect set up as we stand now. Give me good runs by 12z tomorrow and I’m all in 

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28 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

We obviously should continue to be smart and have a critical eye on what flies are in the ointment, but the pattern just screams that someone will get smoked. It feels good to have a non-hostile NAO make a holiday visit. 

nao.sprd2.gif

Many of you have noticed and said this before...

It's always coming out of the -NAO min when things can get real interesting..

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5 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Well we’ve seen the utter best of it so now what’s next?

I like the 5 day away as best sensing but I know insurmountable change can occur.  Looks like no one thinking it gets jerked away. 

You can color me skeptical. I love what I’m seeing, but until the weekend front and Mondays storm passes, I’m laying low.

But that’s me in general.

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1608152400-slcYtGqVkIs.png

This is a trend on the GEFS that should be noted for future runs. The CAD wedge is much more pronounced with a stronger HP over Quebec, and that will pay dividends in at least a better winter precip opportunity. You can also see the tongue of higher Theta-E's on this panel as well with the warmer trend in temps along the SE coast. That is further amplified on the next run, and is classic indication of a bombing surface cyclone at Mid Atlantic latitude. 

1608163200-Rpb2zul7JcU.png

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3 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

You guys recall any winters that had big mid December storms that didn’t end up being great seasons?

I was the ripe old age of 0.5 at the time but 03-04 was frontloaded, no? Pretty sure there was a few good snows in December but not much else for the Mid Atlantic, from what I've seen. 

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1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Euro will probably be the only one to make the I-95 folks annoyed.  Now if that sucker is cold like the GFS/CMC then.....

Absolutely, I understand what happens in these kind of storms down here around FXBG. Hope for 6"+ of snow down here doesn't seem too crazy. Here's hoping the Euro can deliver something nice here shortly.

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