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December Medium/Long Range Discussion


yoda
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31 minutes ago, snowfan said:

Do you have a 2020version of those 1963 maps? One day they'll update their product.

Omg they’re still using the same maps I was looking at in the weather station at PSU in 1997.  Anyone got the Nogaps and NGM while we’re at it???:mapsnow:

I remember how frustrating those things were when a MB marking was blocking something you needed to see. SMH 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Omg they’re still using the same maps I was looking at in the weather station at PSU in 1997.  Anyone got the Nogaps and NGM while we’re at it???:mapsnow:

I remember how frustrating those things were when a MB marking was blocking something you needed to see. SMH 

LOLLLLL god the Nogaps was so bad it would have the storm near the Bahamas two days before and then would all of a sudden jump 800 miles nw and get a clue.

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Just now, WEATHER53 said:

Gotta watch how far the primary gets north. Too far and it can make the transfer too far east and north.  That’s about all that can screw us as the high does look very good. I want it further west to help squash that primary so be fun to follow 

 

Yeah. I was concerned about that earlier today as well. Also with it being east it was allowing howling southern winds in the upper levels. Keep that HP further west and we are golden. 

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Omg they’re still using the same maps I was looking at in the weather station at PSU in 1997.  Anyone got the Nogaps and NGM while we’re at it???:mapsnow:
I remember how frustrating those things were when a MB marking was blocking something you needed to see. SMH 
Can't believe they can get everyone vaccinated but they still use an atari 2600 to produce model maps
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16 minutes ago, nj2va said:

I thought I remember Bob last year talking about how GEFS were known to just follow the OP in lock step.  Anyone know how the ensembles have been performing since the upgrade?

           The previous version of the GEFS was extremely underdispersive, but the new GEFSv12 has way more spread.    That was one of the strengths of GEFSv12 noted in the summary presentations on the evaluation web page:    https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/meg/gefsv12/      (It also helps that 10 additional members were added.)

           If most members agree something at day 5, that's a much bigger deal in the new version.

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Just now, clskinsfan said:

Yeah. I was concerned about that earlier today as well. Also with it being east it was allowing howling southern winds in the upper levels. Keep that HP further west and we are golden. 

That for me is the caveat and the trend to watch. CMC further west GFS ICON a little further east. 

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1 minute ago, high risk said:

           The previous version of the GEFS was extremely underdispersive, but the new GEFSv12 has way more spread.    That was one of the strengths of GEFSv12 noted in the summary presentations on the evaluation web page:    https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/meg/gefsv12/      (It also helps that 10 additional members were added.)

           If most members agree something at day 5, that's a much bigger deal in the new version.

Thanks for responding and sounds like a great upgrade.  

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1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

Yeah. I was concerned about that earlier today as well. Also with it being east it was allowing howling southern winds in the upper levels. Keep that HP further west and we are golden. 

The Primary low looks to develop over Panama City Beach Florida.. the one in TN doesnt seem to be the dominate one anymore

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Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

I think it'll hold steady tonight. It's been the most amped and I don't see it coming down with everything else seemingly trying to catch up. 

Right.  Euro has been the warmest of the models so far.  GFS and CMC have shown all snow for DC.  Euro has had more mixing and temp issues.  

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