clskinsfan Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Really nice CAD at 105. Zero 850 down to VA NC border. 108 basically all of VA getting snow. 111. BEATDOWN. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Uh...would you mind translating that a bit? Need what system to trend south of what now? Lol The upper level low associated with the primary system to our west starts to go neutral and lift a little too far west for an ideal h5 track. But we can do fine in that scenery if we have great confluence locked in by a 50/50. But if the 50/50 were to weaken or lift out sooner we would need that to change or an icon type solution is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 12, 2020 Author Share Posted December 12, 2020 1036 HP in Quebec at 102 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, yoda said: 1036 HP in Quebec at 102 Beat me to it. Good 3mb deeper. I like it so far! HP in prime position. More of a Miller A no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Big hit incoming... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Incoming at 108 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 12, 2020 Author Share Posted December 12, 2020 CRUSHED at 108/111 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 ripping at 111. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 114 is an absolute beat down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Great CAD next frame after Yoda’s reference. Looking like 12z CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 9 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1”+ rates 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 12, 2020 Author Share Posted December 12, 2020 KRIC is 32 and pouring snow FWIW re soundings at 108 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Gorgeous 50/50 this run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Omg this looks huge! Perfect track and cold! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 The upper level low associated with the primary system to our west starts to go neutral and lift a little too far west for an ideal h5 track. But we can do fine in that scenery if we have great confluence locked in by a 50/50. But if the 50/50 were to weaken or lift out sooner we would need that to change or an icon type solution is possible. Geez doing a model thread with you is like walking on eggshells lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 DC DOES NOT MIX. But it is a pummeling for pretty much everyone on this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 You could see by 84 hrs where this was headed with the confluence and better 50/50 vs 18z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Textbook mid-Atlantic setup. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Wow. That is classic snowstorm look. Kocin would be happy. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: 1”+ rates around D.C. looks to be Jackpot with this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 12, 2020 Author Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, clskinsfan said: DC might mix a little at 114. But it is a pummeling for pretty much everyone on this thread. DC is all snow on this run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 2 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 For people asking about this one thing or that. Getting a big snow here is like a golf swing. There are 20 parts and any one can screw the whole thing up. It’s never just one thing. And these variables play off each other. Stronger 50/50 can offset a less ideal upper low track. That same 50/50 and a further south upper level pattern and it suppresses the storm to our south. I could do this with a dozen other factors and variables. Unfortunately there isn’t one thing you can say..that’s it. Just look at that. It’s how they all play off each other that matters. The upper level longwave patter (high latitude blocking) put us in the game but those details determine big hit v close miss. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 GFS = Boom!! Real nice... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Damn bullseye right over my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, yoda said: DC is all snow on this run Yeah. I was going off of the crappy IWM maps. Lets just leave the GFS right where it is for the 5 days. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 41 minutes ago, jaydreb said: I’m kind of dreading the 0z runs to be honest. Nowhere to go but down. This one goes in the category of posts that dont age well. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 12, 2020 Author Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, clskinsfan said: Yeah. I was going off of the crappy IWM maps. Lets just leave the GFS right where it is for the 5 days. I was using the PW soundings. This is DCA at 114 and the closest it gets 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Perfect track from Pensacola to Savannah to east of Hatteras. Anyone north of I40 in these setups usually end up pretty happy in normal winter circumstances. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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