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December Medium/Long Range Discussion


yoda
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2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Uh...would you mind translating that a bit? Need what system to trend south of what now? Lol

The upper level low associated with the primary system to our west starts to go neutral and lift a little too far west for an ideal h5 track. But we can do fine in that scenery if we have great confluence locked in by a 50/50.  But if the 50/50 were to weaken or lift out sooner we would need that to change or an icon type solution is possible. 

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The upper level low associated with the primary system to our west starts to go neutral and lift a little too far west for an ideal h5 track. But we can do fine in that scenery if we have great confluence locked in by a 50/50.  But if the 50/50 were to weaken or lift out sooner we would need that to change or an icon type solution is possible. 
Geez doing a model thread with you is like walking on eggshells lol
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For people asking about this one thing or that. Getting a big snow here is like a golf swing. There are 20 parts and any one can screw the whole thing up. It’s never just one thing. And these variables play off each other. Stronger 50/50 can offset a less ideal upper low track. That same 50/50 and a further south upper level pattern and it suppresses the storm to our south. I could do this with a dozen other factors and variables.  Unfortunately there isn’t one thing you can say..that’s it. Just look at that. It’s how they all play off each other that matters.  The upper level longwave patter (high latitude blocking) put us in the game but those details determine big hit v close miss. 

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