psuhoffman Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 with it being only a few days away why don't we just move the Monday stuff to the obs thread unless it becomes worthy of its own thread in the near future. Discussion of how that wave effects Wed can stay here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: with it being only a few days away why don't we just move the Monday stuff to the obs thread unless it becomes worthy of its own thread in the near future. Discussion of how that wave effects Wed can stay here. You’re behind. There’s already a thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 nevermind i see the other thread...I am ok with that too...I am not the superstitious type. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: You’re behind. There’s already a thread somehow several posts didn't load when I updated the thread... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 I just looked. The least amped gfs run for Monday in the past 5 runs was yesterday at 18z. It also produced its least amped solution for Wed in that run also. Ill roll the dice. I want snow for both. And I think we can get it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 16 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: @psuhoffman I believe your analysis as far as comparing "A to B " but not sure I believe it's that cut and dry though . Probably other variables come into play .Ensembles also are lower resolution. Maybe your right but Monday lies ahead 1st and actually I think it ends up a bit more amped in the end Monday . You are 100% right. There are other variables that could make snow on snow a possibility here. One would be if the Monday starts south but still amplifies...but that one is kinda difficult since its washing out and being absorbed into the developing vortex to our north. If it starts de-amplified it probably ends up even more so. Another option would be a more amplified NS system that bombs out regardless of a less amplified monday wave. So far those 2 features seem to be acting in conjunction but that does not mean they will continue to do so. Or the 50/50 could be less amplified but move out slower. Most likely way to mitigate would be like I discussed on the 18z plot at 90 hours. There are some things out west that could offset a less ideal 50/50. One would be a more positively tilted system that goes neutral later. A flatter flow on top. Even with an obviously less ideal 50/50 its not apparent from that 90 hour 18z euro that the storm would end up north. Those other 2 factors could end up making it further south...who knows. So it's not a 1;1 correlation. But I do think its fair to say...a colder monday solution PROBABLY increases the chances that we have a less amplified 50/50 low and that is a net negative if we think the bigger risk Wednesday is a warm/north trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I just looked. The least amped gfs run for Monday in the past 5 runs was yesterday at 18z. It also produced its least amped solution for Wed in that run also. Ill roll the dice. I want snow for both. And I think we can get it. The other day when I looked at the GEFS I did NOT notice the same correlation. But the GFS in general is much less amplified on EVERYTHING next week...and imo its wrong on that. So if I think its mishandling the longwave pattern I would not put much stock into its handling of the details of how the two waves are playing off each other. But that is just my opinion. Just affirming your observation regarding the GFS is correct but explaining why I didn't put much weight into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 31 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Posted them(ARWs) in the Banter thread for Mondays storm ARW...Always Really Wet NMM...Not Much Moisture 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 18 minutes ago, nj2va said: Eskimo Joe would approve. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 12 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I just looked. The least amped gfs run for Monday in the past 5 runs was yesterday at 18z. It also produced its least amped solution for Wed in that run also. Ill roll the dice. I want snow for both. And I think we can get it. You can get both I think. I can see a scenario where some of us get neither. Maybe just CAPE.. but still some will be snow starved on Friday next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: Wait, was that the snowy Ravens-Vikings game with the epic finish? No it was two days after. Close, it was a couple days after that event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 17 minutes ago, Amped said: No it was two days after. Close, it was a couple days after that event. Right. 5 inches here on tuesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 I’m kind of dreading the 0z runs to be honest. Nowhere to go but down. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Icon looking like snow to freezing rain or plain rain for most on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Icon seems to go bonkers on thermals out in time but once in range it corrects. Icon shows the storm you'd expect given the H5 track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 4 minutes ago, Amped said: Icon shows the storm you'd expect given the H5 track. Icon h5 isn’t that significantly different from other guidance. But it never cleanly transfers energy so the h5 keeps lifting with the primary v turning east to consolidate with the coastal. But up until that last part the h5 track looks similar imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, psuhoffman said: Icon h5 isn’t that significantly different from other guidance. But it never cleanly transfers energy so the h5 keeps lifting with the primary v turning east to consolidate with the coastal. But up until that last part the h5 track looks similar imo. Better confluence would have negated that (verbatim)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 @Amped honestly the whole h5 track of the initial system is not ideal even on runs that show a big hit. We need that monster 50/50 to offset that. Or we need the system to trend south with the track of the initial system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 @PhineasC icon says you should stay Monday then head back to NH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, nj2va said: Better confluence would have negated that (verbatim)? Yea icon is way weaker and further north with the confluence. Less 50/50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, psuhoffman said: @Amped honestly the whole h5 track of the initial system is not ideal even on runs that show a big hit. We need that monster 50/50 to offset that. Or we need the system to trend south with the track of the initial system. Yep I think the lack of a strong primary is also a factor on the runs showing a quick coastal transfer. I'd rather not rely on that though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Confluence looks slightly better at 72 on gfs but I don’t have the knowledge to know if that will have a direct influence in the later frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 12, 2020 Author Share Posted December 12, 2020 Confluence looks a lil better at 78 as the s/w is a tad further west comparing to 18z 84 (00z GFS) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @Amped honestly the whole h5 track of the initial system is not ideal even on runs that show a big hit. We need that monster 50/50 to offset that. Or we need the system to trend south with the track of the initial system. Uh...would you mind translating that a bit? Need what system to trend south of what now? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Confluence looks slightly better at 72 on gfs but I don’t have the knowledge to know if that will have a direct influence in the later frames. It is but also a slightly slower more amplified system out west so other variables could offset. We will see. Minor changes have significant impacts when your worried about a 50 mile shift at 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 12, 2020 Author Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, psuhoffman said: It is but also a slightly slower more amplified system out west so other variables could offset. We will see. Minor changes have significant impacts when your worried about a 50 mile shift at 5 days. Slightly slower at 96... but i see slightly higher h5 heights ahead of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Really nice CAD at 105. Zero 850 down to VA NC border. 108 basically all of VA getting snow. 111. BEATDOWN. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Uh...would you mind translating that a bit? Need what system to trend south of what now? Lol The upper level low associated with the primary system to our west starts to go neutral and lift a little too far west for an ideal h5 track. But we can do fine in that scenery if we have great confluence locked in by a 50/50. But if the 50/50 were to weaken or lift out sooner we would need that to change or an icon type solution is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 12, 2020 Author Share Posted December 12, 2020 1036 HP in Quebec at 102 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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