Franklin0529 Posted November 27, 2020 Share Posted November 27, 2020 Canadian? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 27, 2020 Share Posted November 27, 2020 Just now, Franklin0529 said: Canadian? GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 27, 2020 Share Posted November 27, 2020 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: All systems go. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/11/meteorological-winter-set-to-begin-on.html 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 27, 2020 Share Posted November 27, 2020 19 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: Canadian? 18 minutes ago, BristowWx said: GFS Australian, siberian? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted November 27, 2020 Share Posted November 27, 2020 The reality looks like the next two weeks will see us get two big rain storms. None of the ensembles show anything to shout about to indicate an even minor winter event East of the mountains at this time. EURO overnight was horrible taking the second low into the Midwest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 27, 2020 Share Posted November 27, 2020 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: The reality looks like the next two weeks will see us get two big rain storms. None of the ensembles show anything to shout about to indicate an even minor winter event East of the mountains at this time. EURO overnight was horrible taking the second low into the Midwest. This was/is probably the most likely outcome, outside of the far western highlands. I have been focusing more on where the pattern ends up for mid month and beyond. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 27, 2020 Share Posted November 27, 2020 Here is what the latest extended GEFS looks like for around Mid Dec. It would seem any attempt at a -EPO is transient. Fwiw, beyond this period it brings back some ridging to the east coast, although it appears to have a weak -NAO as well. The latest EPS weeklies have a more pronounced -NAO for mid month and beyond, but also more of an AK trough, and still some +heights in the SW, probably a neutral/weakly +PNA. Neither outlook is necessarily suggestive of a pronounced cold period- probably generally average temps, but changeable. Verbatim the extended GEFS surface temps are quite warm overall mid month and beyond, but I tend to not pay attention to the surface as much as h5 on the LR tools. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 27, 2020 Share Posted November 27, 2020 Don’t think I’d slam the door just yet on next weekend 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 27, 2020 Share Posted November 27, 2020 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Don’t think I’d slam the door just yet on next weekend Who is doing that though? Out your way there is probably a decent chance of seeing some frozen at some point in the next week to 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 27, 2020 Share Posted November 27, 2020 51 minutes ago, CAPE said: Who is doing that though? Out your way there is probably a decent chance of seeing some frozen at some point in the next week to 10 days. I think it is a long shot but I guess you never know. Think a lot depends on just how the early week storm plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 27, 2020 Share Posted November 27, 2020 Mount Holly with a mention of the late week 'potential' in their morning AFD. Later next week... Broad troughing continues to dominate the eastern half of the US in a +PNA/-AO pattern. Indications are for another shortwave to rotate around the base of the trough towards next Thursday, which may yield another low pressure system tracking on either side of the East Coast late in the week. This could bring additional unsettled weather to the region, more likely towards Friday or Saturday. With a cooler air mass remaining in place, portions of the area may have a chance for some wintry outcomes late next week, but this remains to be seen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 27, 2020 Share Posted November 27, 2020 You have to love both the GFS & CMC long range OP runs....Polar vortex paying a visit along with solid +PNA.... hopefully ensembles agree...I’d say if that pattern happens well cash in soon 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 27, 2020 Share Posted November 27, 2020 6 hours ago, CAPE said: Here is what the latest extended GEFS looks like for around Mid Dec. It would seem any attempt at a -EPO is transient. Fwiw, beyond this period it brings back some ridging to the east coast, although it appears to have a weak -NAO as well. The latest EPS weeklies have a more pronounced -NAO for mid month and beyond, but also more of an AK trough, and still some +heights in the SW, probably a neutral/weakly +PNA. Neither outlook is necessarily suggestive of a pronounced cold period- probably generally average temps, but changeable. Verbatim the extended GEFS surface temps are quite warm overall mid month and beyond, but I tend to not pay attention to the surface as much as h5 on the LR tools. Some of the Gefs members really amplify the mjo wave over the MC. It’s sort of a 50/50 split. But either way we will be getting some destructive tropical forcing mid Dec. How much and how long likely determine where we go long term. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 27, 2020 Share Posted November 27, 2020 20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Some of the Gefs members really amplify the mjo wave over the MC. It’s sort of a 50/50 split. But either way we will be getting some destructive tropical forcing mid Dec. How much and how long likely determine where we go long term. Yeah there is likely going to be some impact. I looked at the forecast yesterday and overall the guidance seemed to be moving the forcing into those phases, but at low amplitude/into COD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 27, 2020 Share Posted November 27, 2020 CPC analogs for 12/8 almost identical to those 3 years ago for 12/8/17. That was our last notable December snowfall with 2-5” across the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 27, 2020 Share Posted November 27, 2020 Just now, WxUSAF said: CPC analogs for 12/8 almost identical to those 3 years ago for 12/8/17. That was our last notable December snowfall with 2-5” across the region. Wow it’s been that long. I remember that event. My wife and I walked around the neighborhood looking at decorations. We can only hope.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 27, 2020 Share Posted November 27, 2020 12 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Wow it’s been that long. I remember that event. My wife and I walked around the neighborhood looking at decorations. We can only hope.. Some interesting similarities to that winter. Also a Nina. Had the decent early December snow and the then hardly anything for a long while. Had a late winter SSW that got us an early March snow/ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 27, 2020 Share Posted November 27, 2020 Just now, WxUSAF said: Some interesting similarities to that winter. Also a Nina. Had the decent early December snow and the then hardly anything for a long while. Had a late winter SSW that got us an early March snow/ice storm. Remember it better now that you provided details. The years run together. I should have enjoyed that Dec storm more because it was the last snow I saw until March. Hope we don’t suffer that fate. But whatever...we will deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted November 27, 2020 Share Posted November 27, 2020 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: CPC analogs for 12/8 almost identical to those 3 years ago for 12/8/17. That was our last notable December snowfall with 2-5” across the region. Was that the one where it showed in the evening somewhat unexpectedly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 27, 2020 Share Posted November 27, 2020 5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Was that the one where it showed in the evening somewhat unexpectedly? I know for MBY, it started snowing in the late morning, but didn’t accumulate much until afternoon and evening. Stopped around 8-9pm I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 1 hour ago, BristowWx said: Remember it better now that you provided details. The years run together. I should have enjoyed that Dec storm more because it was the last snow I saw until March. Hope we don’t suffer that fate. But whatever...we will deal This one fell in between those 2. Made that winter great for me. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 And @WxWatcher007 too! Cant recall if we had any other bomb cyclone chasers from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 Been racking the brain trying to remember that one and it finally hit me. I’m talking about that Dec 8 storm. Totally lame here. About an inch that only accumulated on non paved surfaces. The one last December was better here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 31 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Was this the sub 955 mb bomb coastal scraper That's the one. Dropped to 950 at one point I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 28, 2020 Author Share Posted November 28, 2020 Yes its him... but interesting nonetheless. CWG liked the post too FWIW https://mobile.twitter.com/judah47/status/1332326918964842496 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 Just now, yoda said: Yes its him... but interesting nonetheless. CWG liked the post too FWIW https://mobile.twitter.com/judah47/status/1332326918964842496 Who is CWG? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 28, 2020 Author Share Posted November 28, 2020 Just now, cbmclean said: Who is CWG? Capital Weather Gang... Ian and Matt and a few others who post here are part of it. Run by Jason Samenow I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 28, 2020 Author Share Posted November 28, 2020 This is DT... he's woofing lol... Dec 8 to 15 time period (week 3) of the Euro weeklies from last night https://mobile.twitter.com/wxrisksecs1/status/1332539832367779846 DT again... different tweet about the big 4 teleconnections in support of the tweet I linked to above https://mobile.twitter.com/wxrisksecs1/status/1332539592810115075 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 They are very good in general personalities can rub wrong way but gotta let it go for love of weather! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 David should come back here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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